The stickiness of the IRA is a feature, not a bug. More than 3/4 of announced IRA clean energy investment is going to Republican districts. In a close house, it won't take many votes to thwart a repeal of manufacturing tax credits.
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Social Security and Medicare were also wisely designed to be sticky as well by having dedicated payroll taxes.
It'd be great if there was a dedicated Defense payroll tax so everyone would understand that the fed govt is basically an insurance company with an army.
Not sure a repeal would directly harm many of these project in a way voters would notice. And if they closed benefits for new projects these existing projects would have an advantage.
Right. Got to make something to get something. Some small dollars given out as grants but big money in production tax credits. Haven’t seen what a battery project would stand to make make from those.
They haven't gotten any money yet for the most part (or at all) as I understand it since they haven't yet started producing. It's probably one where you need to subsidize them to get started and then they become more efficient in time and then credits sunset and they stand on their own two feet.
Is this because Ds needed to redistribute funds to pass the IRA after BBB failed so miserably? Or did the authors write this distribution into the original legislation as a political ploy to buy red state votes for Biden '24?
There was no distribution written into the legislation -- the tax credits are location agnostic. Republican states received more investments that qualify.
1) Already defectors from the group of 18 that said they want to save parts of the IRA. GOP always has their special trick of lying and hypocrisy. If jobs go away, they'll just blame the Dems or immigrants or whatever nonsense they want. Logic isn't needed.
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2) They say they do, but it's a giant smokescreen. 6 nuke plant closures under Trump. Only 2 under Biden and 2 (or more) were set to reopen because of the IRA. They don't care.
3) The competition they want against China in Africa is LNG exports.
What prevents a tactic of repealing it all and reenacting parts needed to secure votes from those few GOP for whom it might mean something? Trump says he wants to repeal, so it gives him the headline win, and selective reenactment lets GOP claim credit (whereas now all that money is Biden branded).
40% of the emissions reduction from IRA and IIJA come from the tax rebates for households buying EVs, heat pumps, etc., and those rebates are absolutely on the chopping block.
I have been developing clean energy and housing in postindustrial mill towns in rural New England, which actually voted for the IRA. Funding red districts so disproportionately demoralized my advocate friends who felt abandoned for political expedience. The IRA failed to inspire or benefit the base.
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It'd be great if there was a dedicated Defense payroll tax so everyone would understand that the fed govt is basically an insurance company with an army.
I’m might check some company 10Ks on their risk disclosures.
https://bsky.app/profile/ilmi.bsky.social/post/3lbaka5pybk2t
1) your point about the prescient political economy of the IRA.
2) Republicans seem to love nuclear (we shouldn't tell them it is low carbon).
3) Competition with China is reliable way to motivate Republican support. From FOCAC:
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3) The competition they want against China in Africa is LNG exports.
https://www.jonathangilligan.org/publications/caballero_2024_ira/
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/14/elon-musk-gains-power-electric-vehicle-policy-00189326