I think Harris is likely to win but it's going to be excruciating the rest of the way there - ThreadSky

proptermalone.bsky.social • 170 days ago

I think Harris is likely to win but it's going to be excruciating the rest of the way there

I’m not going to pretend everything is great but I would note that having both sides of this election inclined towards “Harris is doomed” (Trump folks because they live in an alternate universe, Harris folks because they have PTSD from the last two elections) is not making for a healthy environment

Comments

ellinst.bsky.social•170 days ago

Digging for Victory (or, in this case, Phone Banking for Victory) is the best way to keep terror at bay.

dmschmeyer.bsky.social•170 days ago

The fundamentals are pretty well baked in at this at this point.

You'd rather be her. Gonna be close as hell.

dmschmeyer.bsky.social•170 days ago

I'll unclench when the delta in early in PA is over 400k at the 10er.

dkhunter.bsky.social•170 days ago

Not necessarily! There's a couple of plausible scenarios where the polls could be off; Nate Cohn credibly raised one of them last week relating to recalled vote weighting in polling.

There's no way to know beforehand if that's the case, though. Go vote!

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/06/upshot/polling-methods-election.html?unlocked_article_code=1.SE4.K39O.b5fRMSUebbsn&smid=url-share

raymanwithaplan.bsky.social•170 days ago

It's not going to be close. The polls tell a story of the electorate that fundamentally makes no sense. Consider: #1: Dobbs. #2: Novelty (no longer a rematch between two old white guys). #3: Republicans alienated by Jan. 6 and the insurrectionist party. #4: Trump voters who died of COVID since 2020

dmschmeyer.bsky.social•170 days ago

This feels like 2012, not 2016. I agree

But my feelings aren't data so I don't express em as such.

youfoundryan.bsky.social•170 days ago

My boomer parents live in AZ. Voted Trump in 16 and 20 but after J6 they just aren't going to vote for a president.

I'd prefer they vote Harris but hey I'll take it. They're pretty typical AZ retirees so I'm hoping this bodes well for her chances there.

jonwithtattoos.bsky.social•170 days ago

This is where I’ve ended up as well. The vibes are a little weird, but here in the SW corner of Missouri, I’m not seeing many Trump yard signs or jacked pickups rolling coal through town with their MAGA flags. I’m cautiously optimistic.

youfoundryan.bsky.social•170 days ago

I live in Colorado and in my last few drives outside the front range urban corridor I have seen nearly zero Trump signs, including some spots to used to have gigantic signs in the past two elections.

wingofbenu.bsky.social•169 days ago

yeah in in central missouri and my town had trump signs fucking everywhere the last 2 elections and this election ve seen zero. I've seen one or two trump flags from years ago or (and only a couple at that) and I've seen a lot of downballot repubilican signs but him? nope

segyges.bsky.social•170 days ago

a general aura of doom does not seem to be a bad thing going into an election tbh

insidejoke.bsky.social•170 days ago

Who is to say, perhaps the people getting the most annoyed and vocal are the surest sign she's on the right path, after all it was similar with Biden 4 years ago. Not sure if that logic holds any weight to be honest, but is something to keep in mind.

bananapantz.bsky.social•170 days ago

Nice

bananapantz.bsky.social•170 days ago

Apparently you can’t reply with a gif anymore. This is not at all a salubrious set of affairs.

insavga.bsky.social•170 days ago

I think this really says it
https://bsky.app/profile/tomtomorrow.bsky.social/post/3l5mm3e6pbm2b

fjerome.bsky.social•170 days ago

I remember this was pretty excruciating

cshannonpdx.bsky.social•170 days ago

2020 was so excruciating that I watched that video of the dancing mailboxes in Philadelphia about 100x that night. Literally the only that calmed me down.

johnsmillie42.bsky.social•170 days ago

Definitely hugged my kid and cried when it was called

walkingtaako.bsky.social•170 days ago

Something that gives me some encouragement is that Scott Perry looks like he might lose in my Congressional District.

pabadger.bsky.social•170 days ago

Hey, I live there too! And yes he might.

walkingtaako.bsky.social•170 days ago

I'm actually just a computer program, I don't exist. But the PA 10th is my congressional district in the way sports teams are "my team"

I was programmed very poorly

ambignostic.bsky.social•170 days ago

Every couple of years I wish for a concoction to make me sleep through all of Election Day, but now I’m looking for something to get me to hibernate through the rest of October

youfoundryan.bsky.social•170 days ago

someone please calculate exactly how hard i need to be whacked in the head with a shovel to make me sleep till mid-november

proptermalone.bsky.social•170 days ago

yeah the postseason could be especially bad

breadnroses.bsky.social•170 days ago

THIS

cshannonpdx.bsky.social•170 days ago

This from four years ago, but replace COVID anxiety with something. Home-buying applications for me, IDK for everyone else.

pmanzo.bsky.social•170 days ago

The tsunami of disinformation, with AI help, on social these next few weeks….

dreamscythe.bsky.social•170 days ago

yeah i'm strongly considering muting all relevant words and living in ignorance for the next few weeks

ryanhamley.bsky.social•170 days ago

There’s some pretty solid reasons to think she’s going to win. It’s just that the downside is so enormously bad that it’s really hard to put it out of your mind.

pabadger.bsky.social•170 days ago

There is much truth in this.

gsjphd.bsky.social•170 days ago

real "10% chance of getting shot in the head" situation

not the odds, but the stakes

neonchinchilla.bsky.social•170 days ago

There is going to be tons of fighting and squabbling across the spectrum until at least January.

Fighting about how to win the election between factions on the center and left. Republicans fighting to cheat. Fighting across the aisle about who won.

It's going to be a chaotic end to 2024.

pabadger.bsky.social•170 days ago

I give the Working Family Party tons of cred for the street party they organized to support the vote count in Philly in 2020. Genius stuff.