China is already the winner of the war. If Russia wins the international order is in the toilet and China can go and try to dominate Asia. If Russia loses it becomes a Chinese vassal feeding Chinese industry with Siberian minerals.
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I don’t understand why people keep claiming Trump is pivoting towards Asia. He will not help Taiwan in case of a war. And if he does, it would be only to wash his hands of his obligations and let Taiwan capitulate
I am VERY concerned about Taiwan. Europe may do to Taiwan the same thing the US did to Ukraine. The only difference being that we may not have a choice, and we would only be turning a blind eye, instead of actually emboldening China
Europe alone cannot do much for Taiwan. And now with the USA's aggressive policy, even less. We have Ukraine to help. Taiwan's advantage is that an island is really difficult to invade.
And really hard to resupply. Aiding Taiwan like we do with Ukraine would require being willing to go to war with China, due to the incredibly high risk blockade running would entail. No one has stomach for this.
Ukraine is definitely easier to resupply. But Russia wanted a blockade to Ukraine, and look where we are now. With the later changes it is much easier to deny control
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Very Sun Tzu
(and with 'losing' I mean, being driven out completely from the internationally recognized territory of Ukraine, including Crimea).