IMO you shouldn't assume a blue wave 2026 as the *modal* scenario, but elections are really weird and the range of outcomes is much wider than people think — a disappointing Democratic night is highly possible, and so is a titanic wave. There is a lot of variance based on events. - ThreadSky

lxeagle17.bsky.social • 2 days ago

IMO you shouldn't assume a blue wave 2026 as the *modal* scenario, but elections are really weird and the range of outcomes is much wider than people think — a disappointing Democratic night is highly possible, and so is a titanic wave. There is a lot of variance based on events.

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playdda.bsky.social•2 days ago

In 2016, Rep. Steve Russell (R-OK) beat State Sen. and two-time nominee Al McAffrey (D) by 20.3%, with a Libertarian candidate getting 6.1% of the vote.

In 2018, Russell lost re-election to Kendra Horn by 1.4%.

Weird shit happens in midterms.

lxeagle17.bsky.social•2 days ago

I guess all I try to say when I'm writing and tweeting is: don't assume we know everything. when you think you've figured the answers out, the universe has a habit of changing the questions.

lxeagle17.bsky.social•2 days ago

(if you reply with "will we have an election in 2026?" I will try to reassure you to the best of my limited ability and knowledge. And if you insist on saying "LOL stupid centrist lib, there won't be one, GET THAT THROUGH YOUR HEAD" like a ton of people before, I will block you.)

conjurial.bsky.social•2 days ago

here's a more substantive question: of course there will be an election, people will be free to vote as they choose, and the votes will be counted accurately.

how would you model other kinds of attempts to cheat in the election? intimidating media, bogus criminal cases, w/e

conjurial.bsky.social•2 days ago

it's very out-of-sample for anything based on past elections and poses some difficult statistical challenges

memphis11.bsky.social•2 days ago

Yea I'd assume this would come down to just guessing numbers

brynntannehill.bsky.social•2 days ago

There will bean lectionary. I don't know if it will be legitimate.

iansiegel.bsky.social•2 days ago

We're going to have elections, my concern is if they are fair or not

ciananas.bsky.social•2 days ago

“There won’t be an election in 2026” idk about them but I’m crawling over broken glass to vote and Trump’s old ass isn’t stopping me

chathom.bsky.social•2 days ago

Everyone needs to volunteer in the next election… as poll workers, election observers, etc. It is scary how little people understand of elections and how many people think it is possible to rig an election in the US.

Have these people ever tried to coordinate anything.. like a child’s bday party?

egbaka.bsky.social•2 days ago

I guess it will all come down to Trump's popularity, voter satisfaction/dissatisfaction, candidate quality on the Dem side, and which voters will turn out.

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