As ever, bold promises of benefits from an India trade deal are far in excess of what could actually be deliverable. Coming up nine years of this... - ThreadSky

davidheniguk.bsky.social • 8 hours ago

As ever, bold promises of benefits from an India trade deal are far in excess of what could actually be deliverable. Coming up nine years of this...

Reposted from Pippa Crerar

Ministers are relaunching negotiations with India in an attempt to clinch multibillion-pound free trade deal they hope will boost UK’s flatlining economy @ecourea.bsky.social reports from New Delhi

www.theguardian.com/world/2025/f...

Comments

josgallacher.bsky.social•7 hours ago

DIT modelling suggests an increase of 0.12% to 0.22% in GDP in the long run.
I don’t get why so much effort would go in to a project that offers so little.
Is there some reason other than economic for pursuing this kind of agreement?

davidheniguk.bsky.social•7 hours ago

In theory to provide a framework for further agreements and a deeper partnership. But only if we were serious about implementation.

josgallacher.bsky.social•6 hours ago

But in practice?
Who is driving it? Incumbents? Finance houses? Ideologues? Someone else?
If the gains are so small are there distribution effects that benefit some interest?
Who lobbies for this and do you know why?

davidheniguk.bsky.social•6 hours ago

It is the generally assumed way to strengthen trade ties, and the numbers add up, but are not transformational.

josgallacher.bsky.social•6 hours ago

That sounds a bit circular. The question remains, why strengthen trade ties when the overall benefits are so tiny?
I am familiar with trade theories but clueless about the practicalities of policymaking.
Cui bono? Who expects to gain from a deal?

davidheniguk.bsky.social•4 hours ago

Well it is a bit circular, but there are benefits, they used to be greater, and the FTA has become the accepted method notwithstanding diminishing returns.

stuarthants.bsky.social•7 hours ago

We should also bear in mind that India are almost as friendly with Putin as the US is now. How will that work with our sanctions on Russia?

davidheniguk.bsky.social•7 hours ago

So many problems with the UK-India FTA - mobility into the UK, Indian tariffs, Iinvestor State Dispute Settlement, Indian data rules. Above all, a UK with irrationally high expectation and an India distrustful of the UK and trade. https://www.politico.eu/article/keir-starmer-boris-johnson-jonatha-reynolds-the-three-big-roadblocks-to-a-uk-india-trade-deal/

alanbeattie.bsky.social•7 hours ago

TBF India has signed a whole bunch of meaningful trade deals such as

davidheniguk.bsky.social•7 hours ago

I suspect DBT monitor staff to check they haven't been reading your columns. Not least as there's a danger you know something about India.

davidheniguk.bsky.social•7 hours ago

Not to mention the frequent dodgy briefs given by the Indian government to their own media about UK talks, and the failure of the UK side to make a serious case at all.

India-UK FTA talks is a good example of just how badly the UK has done trade policy.

stophe-n-manon.bsky.social•1 hour ago

India will be wanting a lot of work visas in return for any trade deal.

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