There have been reports that the land sink collapsed in 2023. We find a big drop in 2023, in line with what is expected during an El Niño. As the El Niño subsides, the land sink is expected to rebound back towards the trend line in 2024, though with large uncertainties. 5/ - ThreadSky

glenpeters.bsky.social • 143 days ago

There have been reports that the land sink collapsed in 2023.

We find a big drop in 2023, in line with what is expected during an El Niño.

As the El Niño subsides, the land sink is expected to rebound back towards the trend line in 2024, though with large uncertainties.

5/

Comments

glenpeters.bsky.social•143 days ago

The ocean sink has grown closer to trend: Climate conditions reduced the ocean sink by an estimated 5.9% in the past decade, likely dominated by altered winds that perturb the ocean circulation with a smaller contribution from the reduced solubility of CO2 in warming waters.

6/

glenpeters.bsky.social•143 days ago

Combined, this year we expect atmospheric CO2 to rise 2.8ppm, close to the high of last year, but not a record high.

With record emissions of CO2 emissions, a record increase in atmospheric CO2 is expected, amplified by the El Niño conditions.

7/

glenpeters.bsky.social•143 days ago

Climate change is closely linked to cumulative CO2 emissions, and with each year of record CO2 emissions, we get closer to exceeding 1.5°C.

Even if we miraculously start immediate global mitigation, the chances of getting to net zero CO2 emissions before crossing 1.5°C are vanishingly small.

8/

greenplanet.bsky.social•142 days ago

Aerosols Now.

It is evident to anyone paying attention that even today's ~1.4° C warming is catastrophic, and we have no pathway below this, for centuries.

Our top priority should be to bring the planet back into energy balance. Aerosols are not a solution, but can buy us time.

thejourney2050.bsky.social•122 days ago

Sadly, these scenarios seem extremely unlikely - given over thirty years of ‘global’ effort since Rio in 1992!

“Sustainable development” is a monumental oxymoron.

Is #climateadaption the only realistic solution - leaving millions less well off people at risk?
🌍🌊🤔

https://sites.google.com/view/thejourney2050

glenpeters.bsky.social•143 days ago

The Global Carbon Budget is the balance between:
* Sources: Fossil & LUC emissions
* Sinks: Ocean & land uptake, atmospheric

The land & ocean sinks continue to take up 55% of the CO2 we put in the atmosphere, amazingly stable given the stuff we dump into the atmosphere.

9/

tfinch.bsky.social•143 days ago

Trying to get my head around what's included in LUC emissions vs land sink. Does deforestation contribute an immediate LUC emission and also reduce the terrestrial sink's capacity?

glenpeters.bsky.social•143 days ago

In our definitions:
* LUC is a direct human intervention (cut down a tree, grow a tree, land abandonment, forestry, etc)
* Sink is an indirect response to changing temperature & co2 concentration. It is not directly caused by humans, but by plants that like eating CO2!

[We have a paper Monday...]

glenpeters.bsky.social•143 days ago

This year: 119 people, 86 organisations, 19 countries. Thousands (?) contributing indirectly.

Lots of material available:
* Paper: https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2024-519/
* Website: https://globalcarbonbudget.org/
* Figures with data download: https://robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2024/

10/10

bityz.bsky.social•143 days ago

Silly question probably answered many times over, but... if we really wanted to drop that curve without relying on new technological magic, what would our lives look like?
Less global shipping, less aviation, electric vehicles, solar and nuclear generation, heat pumps. How would economies change?

laurenzoe.bsky.social•143 days ago

📌

ilkkaleinonen.bsky.social•21 days ago

The recent analysis by Curran & Curran showed a decreasing trend of land sink since 2008. That figure looks similar.

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply