What is driving the recent rate of global warming? That would be CO2, of course. Not as exciting as SO2, but climate change cannot be solved without getting CO2 emissions to zero. SO2 drives short-term changes, most recently, the decline in SO2 in China. www.theclimatebrink.com/p/exploring-... - ThreadSky

glenpeters.bsky.social • 109 days ago

What is driving the recent rate of global warming?

That would be CO2, of course. Not as exciting as SO2, but climate change cannot be solved without getting CO2 emissions to zero.

SO2 drives short-term changes, most recently, the decline in SO2 in China.

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/exploring-the-drivers-of-modern-global

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umsonst.bsky.social•109 days ago

Just the SSTA/OHU feedback between the surface ocean, continents, cyosphere, and atmosphere coupling is mighty shit!

And models do not see it as they can not simulate it! Hard awakening for fascist ahead as the physical Earth system strikes now back :D

umsonst.bsky.social•109 days ago

What is missing in this graph is how much of the warming is now feedback driven,as the emergent feedback reaction of Earth is now gaining momentum by mutual amplification of synchronizing feedbacks while the coupling between systems via teleconnections is intensifying driven by larger system swings

climatenews.bsky.social•109 days ago

Los Angeles properties, including millionaire and billionaire properties have started to auto-combust to add more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

umsonst.bsky.social•109 days ago

And they start now also to whine :D I celebrate that the physical Earth system goes now full tilt, as this feedback reaction is mighty which can not be simulated by models as they can't simulate mutual amplification between the systems which are to coarse and way too simple parameterized...

will-pi.bsky.social•109 days ago

climate scientists seem to largely dismiss feedback loops. When we stop adding carbon (and decreasing SO2) the temperature should rapidly stabilize.

cjfarls.bsky.social•109 days ago

Sadly, we’re no where close to stopping adding carbon GHGs to the atmosphere…. That really is the crux of the problem.

umsonst.bsky.social•108 days ago

this one is the most worrisome recent observation: North Pacific decline in ocean heat uptake (mode water formation declines) support/strengthening the marine heatwave in the NP:

In 2024 the marine heatwave in the Kuroshio extension region reached max values of 6-8°C above the 1981-2011 mean...

umsonst.bsky.social•109 days ago

We can only hope that the worst case is not happening, but with all these results coming out, it does not seem to be the case - gets darker the picture by the months as I track all these clusters with mount up ever more to a gigantic clusterf**k...

climatenews.bsky.social•108 days ago

That’s not the crux of the problem.

The crux of the problem is that we are no where close to even REDUCING the amount of GHG we are adding to the atmosphere, let alone cutting it.

We are ACCELERATING the pumping of greenhouse gases.

cjfarls.bsky.social•109 days ago

Climate models do include many feedback loops. As more data is gained on others, they are included. These are 2nd order effects, so probably were underrepresented in early, computationally constrained models…. But as more info and capacity to include them becomes available, they are included.

umsonst.bsky.social•109 days ago

yes I know that the model community adapts and improves the models constantly - huge effort - but we do not have the computational power to include all these feedbacks operating at smaller scales - biggest blind spot: ocean heat uptake can't be simulated as vertical mixing is too complex...

will-pi.bsky.social•108 days ago

But they seem to think the net effect of feedback loops is relatively small?

climatenews.bsky.social•109 days ago

This is exactly correct. What is under discussion is serious climate scientists claiming that global temperatures will instantly stabilise when human emissions of greenhouse gases are cut to zero.

It’s utter idiocy.

climatenews.bsky.social•109 days ago

No they don’t. One famous one does and he’s been claiming climate change isn’t accelerating. He is losing credibility as the data stacks up.

will-pi.bsky.social•109 days ago

Even apart from Michael Mann (who I agree has lost credibility), they think if we hit net zero, climate change will more or less stop.

therat2025plan.bsky.social•109 days ago

I have a question if we use green and pink hydrogen to make steel and cement in the world. How much reduction of CO2 will be achieved in the atmosphere over a 5-year period?

bjornar1.bsky.social•109 days ago

Reduction in SO2 from maritime transport has some role too doesn't it? Anyway, we can lament the unmasking of the effects of previous/current emissions, but hundreds of millions of people were paying for it with their health and drastically shortened lives.

glenpeters.bsky.social•109 days ago

I don't have the exact figure I am after, but the drop in SO2 from EU/US, then China, completely dwarfs the drop in maritime SO2. The maritime SO2 is only relevant if the forcing of SO2 over the ocean is an order of magnitude or something stronger than over land.

leonsimons.bsky.social•109 days ago

It likely is.

Dark cold oceans absorbed a lot of heat (90% Earth's Energy Imbalance), take more heat to increase temperatures and therefore radiate less to space.

Mathematicians should understand nonlinearity.

leonsimons.bsky.social•109 days ago

Here's a quick SO₂ emission breakdown by sector, using a logarithmic scale:

leonsimons.bsky.social•109 days ago

See:

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/air-pollution?yScale=log&time=2000..latest&facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Pollutant=Sulphur+dioxide+%28SO%E2%82%82%29&Sector=Breakdown+by+sector&Per+capita=false

cosaingalway.bsky.social•109 days ago

The reduction in shipping SO2 is around 7 million t.

For energy and industry it's about 3x that much (just a guess, using Mark 1 eyeball).

Is there any evidence for localised impacts over the ocean, eg due to SO2-related changes in cloud cover and radiative forcing?

umsonst.bsky.social•109 days ago

This feedback reaction will destroy all wealth. But its not visible in the models as they can not simulate it. Its only becomes visible from a mechanistic Earth system perspective if recent observations and our deepening understanding is put together as we trigger here a mighty feedback reaction...

umsonst.bsky.social•109 days ago

What I celebrate is that the fascist have lost, as what they do not see coming is that the physical Earth system goes now full tilt and the synchronization of feedbacks by mutual amplification will trigger an extinction level event if we continue to emit GHGs like lunatics...

umsonst.bsky.social•109 days ago

That's the main point: Sulfur shipping emissions had been "only" some 10%...

This is our problem - the southern Ocean now developing a similar marine heatwaves signal then the Northern Hemisphere - this feedback is bad, as also ocean heat uptake will kick in - or is on a regional/seasonal basis...

climatenews.bsky.social•109 days ago

Exactly - it is a well known concept that there are daily wind patterns near the coast because the land warms and cools much faster than the sea.

Would it be so odd that SO2 behaves differently over land than over the ocean?

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/education/seabreeze_ans.shtml

foodforests4life.bsky.social•109 days ago

Awesome conversation!!
Thank you so much for learning all this stuff!!
I've been reading a lot about missing factors in climate temperature models, have you guys seen these pics??

foodforests4life.bsky.social•108 days ago

I've been trying to think about all of the diffusion that has to happen between the air from a forest (and microbiome underneath) and the surrounding air.
Could you guys help me out a little to make a list of all the molecules that are trying to cross paths??

hakonnordhagen.bsky.social•109 days ago

But isn’t this as simple as having planet traversing emissions stacks rather than stationary ones?

I mean, it’s not the total amount of sunscreen that decided how effective it is, but how you spread it out (?)

glenpeters.bsky.social•109 days ago

Let's assume you are correct. The solution is the same, reduce CO2 emissions to zero as fast as possible.

hakonnordhagen.bsky.social•109 days ago

For sure, but how do we take up the urgency in doing this a few notches?

Right now it seems the urgency is in developing as much fossil projects as possible (at least in Norway)

glenpeters.bsky.social•109 days ago

Forget about SO2 and focus on the problem... I think fossil companies would love us arguing over how much SO2 has changed the rate of warming.

climatenews.bsky.social•109 days ago

And stop reducing SO2 emissions without reducing CO2 and CH4 emissions. CH4 is MUCH worse than CO2.

Only reduce total emissions.

What humans have been doing is the worst combination - reducing SO2 emissions WITHOUT reducing CO2 and CH4 emissions.

hakonnordhagen.bsky.social•109 days ago

We're good at reducing damage if we can cheaply work out a way around and the same time continue as before (preferably doubling down) without it affecting economic growth. We seem utterly unable to do anything that will/can hurt economic growth and current power/colonial relations.

tomherregodts.bsky.social•109 days ago

The End of an EGO-era or the beginning?

Podcast Meme City (English):
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLjzB9S-vCrTLi2i4ri9e3gWo3zlH2taES&si=yzkuPd2I4tNqAgUD

danielwilliams965.bsky.social•109 days ago

What's causing climate change is the misinformation by climate scientists, and the lengths they go to protect governments and therefore their sponsors (shareholders) from taking valid action

robinwhitlock66.bsky.social•109 days ago

Misinformation by climate scientists? What are you on about?

bootcanyon.bsky.social•108 days ago

So you don’t think the fact that total solar irradiance being at the highest level for thousands of years has anything to do with it?

pmagn.bsky.social•108 days ago

Did you see this data point @glenpeters.bsky.social ?

Kinda bat crazy eh
what is this state change?

stirlingnewberry.bsky.social•109 days ago

That is not quite correct.

climatenews.bsky.social•109 days ago

If CO2 is like bullets in an AR15 then SO2 is like a bullet proof vest.

We’ve removed the bullet proof vest from our planet and we’ve added more bullets to the AR15.

slothlydad.bsky.social•109 days ago

If the vest were made of some nasty, toxic irritant material and had to be worn directly over our skin.

climatenews.bsky.social•109 days ago

It is. Bullet proof vests are not healthy to wear anyway - they are bad for our health, but when there’s an insane group of fossil fuel executives shooting like idiots at everyone it’s the best we have.

slothlydad.bsky.social•109 days ago

The analogy breaks down at this point, because when there are people shooting like idiots, the best response is "whatever form of deadly force you're able to muster", and there isn't really a parallel there.

climatenews.bsky.social•109 days ago

Not really. Many have suggested the only solution is a revolution.

slothlydad.bsky.social•109 days ago

Fair. But I'd put that one in a box marked "be very careful what you wish for."

climatenews.bsky.social•109 days ago

cc @leonsimons.bsky.social @climatecasino.net

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