I feel like there is a lot going on here besides precarity. Far too much other stuff at play (eg culture, subtler understanding of education, upward mobility) to turn even this into a freestanding explanation
i'd really love to see a graph like this that shows what % of the electorate each of these groups is. because, e.g., black men are ~6% of voters, so a 25% swing doesn't translate to that many voters. by contrast, white men are ~30% of voters, so even a 3% swing is almost just as many voters
This seems both informative AND potentially intentionally misleading to do it as a percentage like this considering the narratives about Black Men that are circling among Liberals on the other site.
Compelling data here. Kinda weird they indicate 120k interviews. Looks more like 120k respondents with an indeterminate number of actual interviews once you read the methods fine print.
This drives me nuts though because it's not necessarily indicative of a 'shift'. 20 and 24 had very different universes of voters. Trump gaining 2.5M votes since '20 while Harris losing 6.8M votes means the 4.3M+ that didn't show up affect the 'shift' more than people flipping parties.
I'm not trying to make a strong claim here, but if millions less people of X demographic showed up for the Dems then of course the percentage of remaining voters is going to skew Republican. That's.. how Trump won. I haven't seen compelling data, let alone a narrative, about a specific demo though.
Unless I'm mistaken I believe the only demos Trump won outright were white men and white women. Everyone else simply voted a smaller margin of victory for Harris than they did for Biden. But again, no good analysis yet of who stayed home.
if this is not factoring how much turnout dropped among these groups, and only looking those who voted, it's creating a misleading picture of groups becoming more right-wing that are instead becoming discouraged.
In my experience, people stay at home during elections because they are content for their side to lose, or are closet supporters of some of the opposition's agenda.
So it's as much a conscious decision as casting a vote.
I'm no data scientist, but presenting this with percentages for a lay audience doesn't seem like the best choice. For one, a small part of the electorate, Black men, shifting 25% to Trump, yet the vast majority (76%) still voting for Kamala, should've been enough to reconsider the presentation.
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https://x.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1858666503102411089
The greatest enemy of the MAGA-cult is education
https://bsky.app/profile/olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social/post/3lbrkcfxqlk27
So it's as much a conscious decision as casting a vote.