Republicans now expect basically no inflation over the next year. Meanwhile, Democrats expect it to spike. (UMich Expected Change in Prices During the Next Year) - ThreadSky

tracyalloway.bsky.social • 60 days ago

Republicans now expect basically no inflation over the next year.

Meanwhile, Democrats expect it to spike.

(UMich Expected Change in Prices During the Next Year)

Comments

elkmovie.bsky.social•60 days ago

Democrats believe Trump will actually do tariffs, Republicans continue deluding themselves into thinking he won't

fermispairofsocks.bsky.social•60 days ago

Consumer expectation polls never made sense to me. People are stupid.

zavcorin.bsky.social•60 days ago

Guess they took the Trump "we will get prices down" literally... one might argue this is flat-earth level knowledge of how the economy actually works but cannot blame them for it....

breif3.bsky.social•60 days ago

Polls like this are stupid because the people being polled typically have no business providing an answer, you may as well have cows go shit on either side of a pasture. Go ask people who are well informed and understand how things work first. Otherwise don't ask them.

tracyalloway.bsky.social•60 days ago

(At some point you have to wonder whether aggregate economic surveys nowadays are basically just a poll of political affiliation. The divergences are so, so extreme)

tradergg.bsky.social•60 days ago

Also makes me wonder why bother taking inflation polls?

equanimime.bsky.social•60 days ago

in a “choose your own reality” fractured media landscape.

aaronsojourner.org•60 days ago

This is a good piece.
https://bsky.app/profile/briefingbook.bsky.social/post/3lfmqaptcv22f

charlotteinny.bsky.social•60 days ago

They are, but I think this one also reflects the (valid) concern of runaway inflation from Trump's tariffs. I know my answer would've flipped from "not much inflation" to "potential high inflation" on November 6 for that reason.

outerleftfield.net•60 days ago

Same, he has explicitly called for massively inflationary policies, so...

nickhare.bsky.social•60 days ago

The bond market agrees

outerleftfield.net•60 days ago

They're trying to price it in...

khanley.bsky.social•60 days ago

They are

niral.bsky.social•60 days ago

I’m very curious how these answers would differ if people weren’t primed by first being asked their political affiliation (assuming that was the methodology)

niral.bsky.social•60 days ago

Or whether a survey/study that asks them to make a bet would be as extreme

rational1971.bsky.social•60 days ago

If you are told there will be lots of tariffs, why's it not reasonable to expect inflation?

happysweeney.bsky.social•60 days ago

Trump believes that the tariffs are paid by the exporter, and also that they will eat that cost and not pass it on to the American consumer. I would expect prices to fall in that scenario, but ofc both of those assumptions are false.

ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social•60 days ago

Correlates with inflation expectations from the most beautiful word in the dictionary

eaudemacro.bsky.social•59 days ago

Here’s your next Odd Lots …

If market-based inflation expectations are a nonsense, and consumer-based inflation expectations are horribly politicised, what on earth does the #Fed purport to use for inflation expectations as an input towards policy?

westernbirding.com•60 days ago

lol I don’t think all bond guys are democrats

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