Seriously? A week ago it was supposed to have a 3.1% chance of hitting earth!
Reposted from
NPR
After weeks at the top of the Sentry list at the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, the asteroid 2024 YR4 is no longer considered a threat to Earth.
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(This is quite a normal pattern for asteroids it seems, as the likelihood increases then dramatically reduces as more is calculated)
O = Earth
[ ———— O -—] 1%
[ ————O -] 5%
[ ———-] O. 0%
As the confidence interval of the asteroids path shrinks, the Earth takes up a larger part of the interval, until its no longer in the interval