New federal poll from Léger (Feb. 14-17, 2025): Generic ballot with Trudeau as LPC leader (CPC +8) vs Hypothetical ballot with Mark Carney as LPC leader (CPC +1) - ThreadSky

338canada.bsky.social • 12 days ago

New federal poll from Léger (Feb. 14-17, 2025):

Generic ballot with Trudeau as LPC leader (CPC +8)
vs
Hypothetical ballot with Mark Carney as LPC leader (CPC +1)

Comments

phyllisl.bsky.social•12 days ago

The good part about this, is that the support for Carney is coming from Ontario and Quebec and I'll remind folks that Trudeau's support was around 33% last election and he won the election as a minority govt. Around 200 seats are up for grabs in those two provinces out of 338 total seats.

marcoliviergt.bsky.social•12 days ago

343 total now

phyllisl.bsky.social•11 days ago

Oh right... where did we get added seats?

marcoliviergt.bsky.social•11 days ago

Alberta got 3, Ontario and BC one each!

phyllisl.bsky.social•11 days ago

Oh thank you.

gdnicholson.bsky.social•12 days ago

Vote efficiency would seem to be a Liberal majority with Carney

jasonvantaco.bsky.social•12 days ago

Is that due to redundancy voting in rural areas for CPC?

gdnicholson.bsky.social•12 days ago

CPC wins some SK/AB ridings with 75% of the vote. They always appear to have the "popular vote" but it's highly concentrated in rural Western ridings.

jeffblackman.bsky.social•12 days ago

Yeah -- same reasons why we just had two elections where the Tories won the popular voyr by 1-2% but lost by like 40 seats

jjerke.bsky.social•12 days ago

exactly. worst case for scenario for libs now looks like a CPC minority gov if Carney performs badly in debates/pre election period but if Carney is neutral like now or even remotely good at politicing, he could possibly pull a majority out of the hat depending on the poll. CPC struggling w pivot

jasonvantaco.bsky.social•12 days ago

Forming coalition government also an option.

alexsavz.bsky.social•12 days ago

We need Angus as leader of NPD and for them to then form a coalition with the Liberals. We need to shut down these conservatives liars before they destroy us from within

jeffblackman.bsky.social•12 days ago

You all need to get avatar pictures.

newsandcoffee.bsky.social•12 days ago

Carney is going to look like shit in the debates because he's a unpracticed newbie when it comes grubby retail politicking.

PP is going to gish gallop, & slogan & rhyme.

Confident & stupid beats cautious & nuanced, every time.

The Libs should be lowering everyone's debate expectations.

phyllisl.bsky.social•12 days ago

Well have we actually ever seen Poilievre debate? He begged off the debate in the last election, I believe. And honestly.. if people hear that nasally twang and the smug arrogance in his words, more would likely be turned off.

gdnicholson.bsky.social•12 days ago

Carney's been around the block and is a disciplined communicator. PP is "anti-charisma". He always controls his script so a debate might not go well

jasonvantaco.bsky.social•12 days ago

Do debates make a huge difference?

jeffblackman.bsky.social•12 days ago

We'll have a decent idea of that after the 2 grit debates. Definitely a possibility, plus the just straight priors that federal parties just rarely hand over the reigns effectively, Paul Martin being the bare exception in like 50 years.

fagankara.bsky.social•12 days ago

I have to say no one who has been watching Carney speak over the last month could possibly have that opinion. He’s more than capable of handling himself.

carolkroeger.bsky.social•12 days ago

Does PP do well in debates?
I know he paid a hefty fee to skip at least one Con leadership debate (this was likely because he was winning so why risk it).

scottwhitegloves.bsky.social•12 days ago

I think Carney will hold his own. The Gish gallop is a tough one to counteract in a debate, for sure. Carney is super smart and a very good public speaker. I’d expect him to be very well prepared to debate PP.

halifaxrunner.bsky.social•12 days ago

Funny, even Trudeau is catching up.

alexblanchet.bsky.social•12 days ago

Y a-t-il un tableau croisé pour voir d'où vient la différence? Des indécis (quand la question est avec Trudeau) qui se positionnent pour le PLC quand on leur propose Carney?

anik1968.bsky.social•12 days ago

Why Trudeau 😳🙃 he is leaving

ethnographer.bsky.social•12 days ago

It shows the difference a new leader would make.

But I would like to see a hypothetical with Freeland and Carney vs Poilievre.

phyllisl.bsky.social•12 days ago

There is a different poll showing 29% if Freeland was LPC leader so sounds like the voters want Carney as new LPC leader. Carina Gould was even lower.

What happens in those cases is that the NDP numbers increase. CPC numbers stay the same.

tleafto.bsky.social•12 days ago

Now how does that translate into seats?

judymylove.bsky.social•12 days ago

Stunning the ignorance of voters. Trudeau has been stellar in the face of what’s happening right now. Trudeau hate is a classic example of right wing brainwashing.

reasonable-ish.bsky.social•11 days ago

Attacking the leader of the government is a democratic passtime. The leader is an easy target because the leader's image is naturally 'front and centre' and everyone else "could do better", blah blah. The griping game.
Trudeau is doing great. The Independent, international stats are favorable.

jmarshwiggle.bsky.social•7 days ago

Doesn’t matter if he’s lost the majority of the electorate; it’s over for him.

reasonable-ish.bsky.social•6 days ago

Absolutely agree. Perhaps the main victory Poilievre can claim is orchestrating the exit of JT from the big chair. Witness how he is floundering without JT as a foil.
Lots to deride him for in acts as well as inaction, but for Covid, G7 rating, humanities he is good. Unimaginable under Cons.

promich.bsky.social•12 days ago

The Carney campaign has been relentless bending right trying to attract Poilievre supporters. If there's been success, it's not showing in the projected seat numbers (41 to 40) due to FPTP.

ddum316.bsky.social•12 days ago

Carney is the man who can take care of Trump !

etiost.bsky.social•12 days ago

It makes sense. NDP voters like Carney.

jasonvantaco.bsky.social•12 days ago

It's strategic voting. Quebec is way out in front of it.

etiost.bsky.social•12 days ago

Yes, it is. That’s exactly how it should be.

jasonvantaco.bsky.social•12 days ago

Ontario needs to get on that train.

etiost.bsky.social•12 days ago

As I recall, the latest polls showed that with Carney as leader, Ontario would vote for the Liberals - or do you mean a provincial poll?

jasonvantaco.bsky.social•12 days ago

Yes, but not nearly as decisively as Quebec.

We all need to follow Quebec's lead.

They are the most politically conscious of us, and figured out what we have to do for the country.

etiost.bsky.social•12 days ago

And not only them.

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