One somewhat optimistic take is that if Trump & the US right continues to be so consistently terrible, it will undermine the global right-ward shift. Already seeing some evidence of this in Canada (Liberal party is up), Germany (AfD underperforming), & Europe more broadly (rallying around Zelensky) - ThreadSky

gordpennycook.bsky.social • 8 days ago

One somewhat optimistic take is that if Trump & the US right continues to be so consistently terrible, it will undermine the global right-ward shift. Already seeing some evidence of this in Canada (Liberal party is up), Germany (AfD underperforming), & Europe more broadly (rallying around Zelensky)

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jimaceverett.bsky.social•7 days ago

There is the chance that this will also help in the UK with people moving away from our most right wing party (Reform), are linked to Elon Musk and Trump and is noticeably less pro-Ukraine than the other parties. People in the UK don't like Trump/Musk, and the association will hopefully hurt them.

courtneybhilton.bsky.social•8 days ago

This has been my theory for why the current government in Australia has been delaying the election as far as possible: to give everyone a good look at what the other path looks like.

jonasdora.bsky.social•8 days ago

How is the AfD underperforming? They doubled their votes since the last election, which is nothing short of a catastrophe

gordpennycook.bsky.social•8 days ago

Not an expert in German politics by any means, but...

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/how-maga-bungled-the-german-election-trump-alternative-for-germany-merz-voters-7403edb2

jonasdora.bsky.social•8 days ago

I don’t think you need to be an expert to understand that it’s bad news when 1 in 5 vote for the Nazis

drcueneyddinc.bsky.social•8 days ago

Yeah but they expected more than 20%, due to the fact that there were two attacs commited by refuges. Also in November, when the government ended they were at 17% at the polls and even with the Musk support they get only 20%.

thalysandratos.bsky.social•8 days ago

It is bad. It is also not as bad as it could have been if Musk's support had given them a boost. Underperforming is rather strong. They performed about as expected. But, Musk's support spurred support for the left party instead, which entered the parliament, somewhat decreasing AfD's impact.

trav-tatman.bsky.social•8 days ago

Optimistically wondering about this — how strong is the "Streisand Effect" going to be? To what depth will the supporters they've gained follow them into hole they're digging before it is impact is intolerable? What does history tell us?

trav-tatman.bsky.social•8 days ago

Typos indicative of emotion state today. 😵‍💫🥴

minzlicht.bsky.social•8 days ago

Come back to Canada, Gord!

gordpennycook.bsky.social•8 days ago

Lol, not quite there yet...

minzlicht.bsky.social•8 days ago

Come back to the land where people respect the name Gord, Gord.

gordpennycook.bsky.social•8 days ago

metacognishane.bsky.social•8 days ago

If you're open to a cross-border trade, Mickey, I'll gladly come back up there (once U of T - StG, Scar, or Miss - is hiring ;) ).

joshuagrubbsphd.bsky.social•7 days ago

I’ve wondered about this, though, OTOH, the whole “two largest nuclear arsenals under right-wing control…” is not super reassuring

numcog.bsky.social•8 days ago

Want to share your optimism but the AfD will be the official opposition. They doubled their vote share.

lewischuang.bsky.social•7 days ago

I live in East Germany. I think it's complicated. My interpretation is that Musk's and Vance's emboldened AfD's base but swung protest and undecided votes to the Left and non-CDU/CSU conservative party instead of AfD. Both AfD and CDU/CSU expected to do much better.

Ultimately, Germany voted right.

realmaryceleste.bsky.social•8 days ago

Yes unfortunately they have to continually show the world who they are and what they are doing.

annemscheel.bsky.social•8 days ago

Underperforming isn’t quite the term I’d use for a party that just doubled their vote share…

gordpennycook.bsky.social•8 days ago

Yah fair, I just meant underperforming based on prior expectations

annemscheel.bsky.social•7 days ago

I don’t really see that either. The polls were pretty much bang on (https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/) and betting markets also seemed to favour the eventual margin for the entire race (https://polymarket.com/event/afd-of-vote-in-german-election/will-the-afd-win-10-15-of-the-vote-in-the-german-election?tid=1740848985905)

gordpennycook.bsky.social•7 days ago

Ah okay, fair enough!

grahamiancummins.bsky.social•8 days ago

I hope this works.

Anyone considering right-wing politics should take a long look at how completely fucked Americans now are.

andreastocco.com•8 days ago

Reminds me of this

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