FDP’s Lindner, who as finance minister frustrated much of the traffic-light coalition’s modernising agenda and ultimately brought it down in November, seems shattered. He thanks party colleagues for their resilience.
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The FDP has really lost its way. I hope that a spell outside of parliament is salutary. Germany needs a liberal internationalist party; right now the FDP is not that.
This is a crazy stat. The Left also has a new, young co-leader in Heidi Reichinnek who seems to be quite a shooting star. She has been in parliament since 2021. Frankly, I had never heard of her until a few weeks ago. The only really new face in this election - seems to have not hurt.
But hasn't this always been the case? The youth votes left, then they get older and vote right. Have more youth voted left this time than last time? That's a more significant question.
Quick recap:
- Latest projections suggest a five-fraction Bundestag. If so, a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition under a (rather humbled) Merz looks likely.
- FDP and BSW both close to 5%. If *either* of them hits that bar, a bipartite coalition becomes impossible and everything gets messier.
Gregor Gysi, one of Left’s “silver haired” trio of viable constituency candidates (who helped make it plausible - as parties that win 3 constituencies override 5% hurdle), attributes party success to its new-found unity. Subtext: Wagenknecht’s breakaway made Left stronger.
CDU will probably hook up with SPD for the majority
But it might be more interesting to have the CDU the greens and the left party as a way to help Ukraine win and preserve Germany & Europe from being overrun by Russian Nazis
Long shot, but what do you think of the chances of that 3 coalition?
It's really quite an argument for splitting your party into parties with clear ideologies in proportional rep systems - went from 5% for the left to 9%, and the new splinter party also has 5, so overall a 5 -> 14% improvement
I hope this is accurate. I think we saw similar in France before, vote left to keep the far right out. People will support a bold progressive and socialist party if it exists. Many are beyond fed up and angry with the establishment and how little they have to offer us in the working class.
You probably want to wait for the gender breakdown before exhaling there. If this goes like US election, we're likely to see young male AFD turnout being mitigated by sanity of young women.
Fair altho I still feel like by going on and on about "far right youth" its ignoring the age group that generally seems the most far right, which is people between like 40 and 60.
(so no not really boomers either, they tend to vote on established parties)
One thing that glares out from voting patterns right now is gender gap. Which exists in all generations but among Gen Z it's a chasm.
If we raise boys to identity with dominance, we shouldn't be astonished when many find fascism attractive. That was true in 1930s - and now we have the Manosphere.
It’s almost completely due to their social media success on platforms like TikTok. The left has partially (!) done better now because they can cater to that, too. If you watch Heidi’s (left leader) video clip that has gone viral it captures quite a similar style although with different content.
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Left + SPD + Greens on 54% among first-time-voters. Those voters were also slightly less likely to vote AfD than national average.
So much for the “far-right youth”.
This atleast somewhat counters that. Yes AFD still got 20% but thats basically the same as the population as a whole.
- Latest projections suggest a five-fraction Bundestag. If so, a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition under a (rather humbled) Merz looks likely.
- FDP and BSW both close to 5%. If *either* of them hits that bar, a bipartite coalition becomes impossible and everything gets messier.
But it might be more interesting to have the CDU the greens and the left party as a way to help Ukraine win and preserve Germany & Europe from being overrun by Russian Nazis
Long shot, but what do you think of the chances of that 3 coalition?
(so no not really boomers either, they tend to vote on established parties)
Looks like young men were crucial to AfD vote this time too. Which is worrying, since it suggests we aren't going to age out fascism.
Thank god for young women!
Wonder if things will look different with the kids of Millenials and old Zoomers.
If we raise boys to identity with dominance, we shouldn't be astonished when many find fascism attractive. That was true in 1930s - and now we have the Manosphere.