To up the number of high speed passengers, we need to up the number of trains. Could manufacturers take more responsibility for this, rather than waiting for operators to come to them? Apologies for the rough thinking in the thread, but I need to ponder this more. Tell me what you think! /ends - ThreadSky

jonworth.eu • 36 days ago

To up the number of high speed passengers, we need to up the number of trains.

Could manufacturers take more responsibility for this, rather than waiting for operators to come to them?

Apologies for the rough thinking in the thread, but I need to ponder this more. Tell me what you think!

/ends

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tafaner.bsky.social•36 days ago

I don't think it's mad. It's quite 'interventionist', something the EU normally dislikes, but in agriculture, we have the CAP. Heavily interventionist and much disputed, but the political will was found. Is it just that the EU hasn't understood the need to think long term?

maik.zumstrull.net•35 days ago

EU sponsored ROSCOs that commit to buying up enough stock that it makes sense for Siemens etc to spin up more factories?

neilturner.me.uk•36 days ago

There have been occasional instances of UK rolling stock leasing companies speculatively ordering trains with no specific operator in mind - last happened around 10 years ago with 20 4-carriage Electrostars (387s). Could the EU maybe bankroll a pool of standard HS trains for leasing?

jonworth.eu•35 days ago

Or at the very least provide loans with adequately good terms? Legally would be possible, politically... perhaps a long shot currently?

neilturner.me.uk•35 days ago

Would be great if they could - it would lower the barriers to new entrants to the market too.

dburx.bsky.social•35 days ago

If there is a elite/xparty consensus, you can get Airbuses, as that reduces manuf’s risk over time and allows investment in manuf capacity.
I can’t see any way to reduce long term risk w/o gov’t – EU – vision, rules, & acting as a buyer of last resort, financing?

jonworth.eu•35 days ago

Virgin Trains is falling right into this trap now. "We want to rival Eurostar on Channel Tunnel routes!"

What happens if that doesn't work?

No plan for it as far as I can tell.

If you could redeploy the trains they might buy on - say - Amsterdam-Paris, the investors might be assured.

jonworth.eu•35 days ago

Perhaps. The issue is often - broadly - this: Operator: "We want trains for this route!"
Financiers: "What happens if that route doesn't work?"
Operator: "Errr..."
*If* a route were to fail, you need a type of train you can deploy elsewhere, and operators never want to think like that.

patrickreuvekamp.bsky.social•36 days ago

Infrastructure is also a problem, and getting enough staff to actually be able to use the trains.

jonworth.eu•36 days ago

And staff: yes, but you can recruit and train staff.

webguy.bsky.social•36 days ago

In less time than it takes to procure trains!

jonworth.eu•36 days ago

A partial yes. Germany definitely yes, the network is overloaded. But you could run a lot more in France anywhere except the Lyon quite easily. Paris-Bruxelles too. Channel Tunnel as well. Spain too.

trenesrotondos.bsky.social•33 days ago

Why not on Lyon?

miklosgyalog.bsky.social•36 days ago

It's beside the core point, but the fact that Vienna-Budapest takes more than an hour by train, and Budapest-Cluj more than two, decades after the Eastern expansion of the EU, a quarter of the way into the 21st century, is an inexcusable failure of policy and priorities by all parties on all levels.

jonworth.eu•36 days ago

And the upgrades being done in Romania currently - with EU money - are done for a max speed of just 160km/h. It's really poor. So yes, I agree with your core point here!

grahamtayloruk.bsky.social•35 days ago

What about the CRRC and the Chinese aspiration to break into the European markets, probably in conjunction with a European manufacturer? The EU Commission have said it’s not currently credible, but also said that could change within 5 years.

jonworth.eu•35 days ago

Was answered already

torstenkammer.bsky.social•35 days ago

I don’t think they’ll do it soon, but it would be funny if Siemens were to follow up on Dispolok, Smartron and Mireo Smart with a Velaro Smart. Pre-configured, available on standard terms and conditions and on relatively short notice.

torstenkammer.bsky.social•35 days ago

Of course it’s not quite the same. There are plenty of cases where a smaller company needs one or at most a single digit number of freight locomotives or regional EMUs, but for high speed, the I guess the maths is different. (Or is it? Westbahn and Leo Express might be counterexamples)

torstenkammer.bsky.social•35 days ago

I would say that with the Velaro and Hitachi trains we already have basically standard customer-neutral platforms that are „good enough“. Especially for new operators who’d probably buy maintenance from the manufacturer as well and don’t care about compatibility with existing fleets.

torstenkammer.bsky.social•35 days ago

My guess is the key problem isn’t in technology but financing. Someone needs to pay Siemens and/or Hitachi to start building trains on spec (and expand their factories to do so). That worked for freight locomotives, but it’s easier for leading companies because the market is there.

torstenkammer.bsky.social•35 days ago

Financing is the main thing about railroading that I think isn’t being discussed enough and that I’d love to know more about. E.g. how much of Stadler‘s growth over the past 30 years is due to good trains and how much is Peter Spuhler making good financing deals for them?

torstenkammer.bsky.social•35 days ago

Aside: I’m not actually too fond of ordering the current train platforms (or for that matter Velaro Novo) in large numbers because then we’ll lock in terrible wheelchair accessibility for a really long time. But that’s a different discussion.

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