I think the biggest nightmare would be BSW gets over 5%, FDP doesn’t, and hence CDU-SPD can’t form a coalition Then what? I can’t see CDU-SPD-BSW. So that’d mean CDU-SPD-Grüne (🇰🇪). While I loathe Lindner, if FDP instead of BSW were 6th that means CDU-SPD-FDP could govern. - ThreadSky

jonworth.eu • 21 hours ago

I think the biggest nightmare would be BSW gets over 5%, FDP doesn’t, and hence CDU-SPD can’t form a coalition

Then what?

I can’t see CDU-SPD-BSW. So that’d mean CDU-SPD-Grüne (🇰🇪).

While I loathe Lindner, if FDP instead of BSW were 6th that means CDU-SPD-FDP could govern.

Comments

jonworth.eu•20 hours ago

To those going “it’d be better for Ukraine policy and climate policy if Grüne and not SPD were in coalition with CDU“, well, yes, sort of. Especially re Ukraine.

But given how outright hostile Merz has been to the Grüne, would he even give Grüne space, responsibility? I fear he’d just bash Habeck.

wolf916.bsky.social•20 hours ago

Solid analysis, also by Prof Bueltmann. A lot of infighting to be expected in a black/green coalition particularly from Söder CSU. Might end up in a lame duck government at the worst of times. Re Ukraine one might hope Pistorius will play a major role once Scholz is on gardening leave.

jonworth.eu•20 hours ago

Take the example from yesterday where Merz claimed the left wasn’t aghast at the assassination of CDU politician Lübcke. It’s not true - there *were* protests from the left against political violence.

But that doesn’t fit Merz‘s petty view that only the right is even somehow legitimate.

jonworth.eu•20 hours ago

For a coalition to work it needs a basic level of trust amongst the parties in it. Habeck reckons he’s so clever he can persuade anyone to trust him (look how that didn’t work with Lindner though!)

And while Grüne could work with and trust CDU pragmatists, at a human level they can’t trust Merz.

lennydunord.bsky.social•18 hours ago

Plus, at least my feeling, SPD has enough “Macht” politicians that will be somewhat okay to trade political power for standards. Faeser. Maybe a Giffey comeback? And others.
Not doing that is (with limitations) a core selling point of the Green Party.

ryukyu-hsr.bsky.social•20 hours ago

If Pistorius can remain minister of Defense it's not so bad.

But I really worry about chancellor Merz given how much he hates compromise with the left (wasn't that his whole criticism of Merkel?)

tanjabueltmann.net•20 hours ago

I agree with your assessment. Ultimately, there is no good outcome here, but agree that CDU-SPD would be least bad. I think that’s the case because it’s vital that there is a proper opposition—if SPD in opposition that wouldn’t be the case (that’s their own fault: tragedy of a party).

climatedaily1.bsky.social•20 hours ago

Not wholly dissimilar to the UK situation in the summer...that is the best we can hope for. As for the opposition, it will not be die Grüne and die Linke. It will be the AfD, and Merz has shown that they can affect his decision-making.

jonworth.eu•20 hours ago

You need something on the left too. Some people arguing a better world is possible.

climatedaily1.bsky.social•20 hours ago

On that I agree, totally, Jon. A better world is possible. It is what you and I work for every day in our own little ways. I am reassured that opinion polls indicate that AfD support has plateaued at around 20%. The progressives need to start communicating better - die Linke has made a start.

prasino.bsky.social•21 hours ago

Given the most urgent issue is dealing with Russia , where Scholz has failed, and that needs money and resolve which coalition works?

jonworth.eu•21 hours ago

SPD will join any coalition. So that’s not an option on the table. Sorry. And even if Scholz fell on his sword it’s not going to change that line.

16leiba.bsky.social•20 hours ago

FDP getting 5% also means that there should be a visible pro-democratic right-of-centre opposition party if not in coalition. I don't know how successful they'd be, but an alternative to AfD nonetheless.

jonworth.eu•19 hours ago

No. If they get in, they’ll likely be needed for a coalition.

jericho11.bsky.social•21 hours ago

That makes FDP quite a strategic vote today, even though we might not share much of their program. I am too afraid of the other scenarios.

ryukyu-hsr.bsky.social•20 hours ago

Idk, FDP needs to be punished for their kamikaze behaviour in the end or they'll keep pulling this kind of bullshit.

jericho11.bsky.social•20 hours ago

I think they have lost already like half of their votes by this move. I think it’s punishment enough. Leaving the parliament feels too harsh to me.

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply