This ten year old paper by my friend & colleague Eugenia Kalnay and colleagues modeling the combined effects of environmental degradation and wealth disparity on societal stability didn't get much attention at the time. It feels especially relevant now: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... - ThreadSky

michaelemann.bsky.social • 14 days ago

This ten year old paper by my friend & colleague Eugenia Kalnay and colleagues modeling the combined effects of environmental degradation and wealth disparity on societal stability didn't get much attention at the time. It feels especially relevant now: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800914000615

Comments

yannoehl.bsky.social•14 days ago

📌

palebluedot1.bsky.social•13 days ago

different models give similar results, mean affordability.
Looking at results there are big doubt about healthy survival capacity.

davidmouritsen.bsky.social•14 days ago

585 citations on Google Scholar ain't bad. Many, many PDFs freely available online. Clearly, this paper has been on the minds of many people. (And now, thanks to your post, yet more.)

thimbles.bsky.social•14 days ago

This paper sounds very Arthur Keller in tone:
https://youtu.be/qPb_0JZ6-Rc
probably other way around given the timeline.

Either way, we're looking at what looks like a real rollercoaster future.

snial.bsky.social•13 days ago

is the source for the model on a repo (e.g. Git Repo) with public access?

slriley.com•14 days ago

Interesting. The interplay between the primary varibles is easy to see from the graphs for people who may not understand the math.

Getting Asimov's "Foundation" vibes from the paper. Also chills.

overshot.bsky.social•14 days ago

Open Access and everything.
Thanks

lizziepi.bsky.social•14 days ago

Look at this 👀

flowinguphill.bsky.social•14 days ago

USAID cuts seem likely to have significant effects. Africa has some of the few regions where fertility rates are greater than replacement. But defunding of HIV treatment and malaria control could reduce life expectancy.

lesuknight.bsky.social•14 days ago

It seems odd that carrying capacity remains constant in all of their models. Environmental degradation has to reduce Earth's carrying capacity for our species.

rochellemarch.bsky.social•13 days ago

So my main takeaway from this paper is people should consume less, chill more and not try to out do their neighbors all the time? Perhaps the best overlooked sustainability strategy of our time is more naps…for everyone.

borjita.bsky.social•14 days ago

📌

zz5555.bsky.social•14 days ago

📌

ecogeog.bsky.social•13 days ago

Thanks. Just looking at the Limits model. It will be instructive to compare the two.

piquedpensioner.bsky.social•14 days ago

📌

tonysomo.bsky.social•14 days ago

Thank you for this post.
This kind of rigorous root cause analysis really does help us understand what is likely driving our current predicament and debacle.

kevinleecaster.bsky.social•14 days ago

I find it quite spooky that their graph seems to bottom out nature at 248 years considering how many years ago the Declaration of Independence was written.

porcelainteacup04.bsky.social•14 days ago

yes definitely

holybollards.bsky.social•14 days ago

📌

liannewildlife.bsky.social•14 days ago

📌

clearlight.bsky.social•14 days ago

📌

rwildr69.bsky.social•14 days ago

THANK YOU for posting this especially with the ignorant toddler in charge. I wonder what four years of this regime will skew the trends in this paper...

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