People who say variance is the only reason Salah is outscoring Haaland spend all day in their rooms looking at xG
Anyone who actually watches football can see it goes much deeper than variance
Anyone who actually watches football can see it goes much deeper than variance
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Mahrez - never effectively replaced
Rodri - no back up or back up plan
Haaland - no back up, has to play every game
De Bruyne understudy?
Sold Palmer
relying on an aging Gundogan
That's the reason for the drop off.
I go back to my original point, no sports team can stay at that level, there’s always a drop off.
Obviously city has suffered an alarming loss of form, but to predict exactly when form changes is almost impossible…
Analytics players instantly moved off Haaland for GW10 while non-analytics took a few gameweeks longer.
But even as Salah owners, we have to admit the outcome is pretty extreme and quite unexpected. Who really thought Haaland would only get 1 assist over this span?
For FPL though, relying on long term performance data and fixtures is much more reliable, especially over the long term.
Even review has observed form affects and modelled it but they are very very small
It’s not even about the system.
It’s about player and team form which models are way too slow to pick up on and adapt to.
Absolutely, some people are quick to perceive healthy debate as argumentative debate (not suggesting that's the case here BTW)
I thought the Twitter Nick Triggerlips was a miserable old man who would moan about everything.
Now I find myself often agreeing with Bluesky Nick Triggerlips. I like Bluesky Nick Triggerlips
Haaland is cold at the minute but we have no idea when he will run hot like the start of the season. Non-owners lucky the delta between him and alternatives has been huge
It’s no coincidence Haaland was scoring back to back hat-tricks at the start of the season & now not.
He was in form at the start of the season & now he is not in form.
If it were variance, Haaland’s braces & hat-tricks would be more evenly spread out.
Each dice throw is an independent event.
Footballers converting consecutive chances are not fully independent events.
He's not a robot even though some use that emoji, and other factors like confidence come into it.
The word variance gets peddled about but sometimes we need to look deeper into why it happens.
Why did Haaland’s overperformance and underperformance come in batches then?
https://bsky.app/profile/fplhippie.bsky.social/post/3lbagn43uxs2a
They're just getting overrun in midfield. Any team with a decent press and pace would fancy them.