like I think you're probably right that it won't be a Q2 story but we need to remember the distribution here is very skewed and not assume the median is the only possible outcome.
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I think it is most likely a Q3 story with declining consumption AND investment though capex declines are likely to begin in Q2 in part because of the huge IT buildup/pull forward in Q1
If capex doesn't decline then employment won't crater, which means consumption will be stable-ish, and housing is stable-ish. Just don't think you can get there even if shelves start emptying out.
It is all related but I’m saying some of that capex is reactive/ later in the chain. No reason why in June some single source smbs are out of inventory and can’t afford to operate, shed their 10 employees. That can snowball and the big boy capex cuts aren’t on the front end of that
Partner's co does PR for furniture/fixture manufacturers. Potential new clients pushing our start dates to the fall instead of late spring.... small sample size, but I think the big pause is still very much happening for SMB
I don't know....shelves emptying in Covid quickly spiraled other things (though admittedly the health risks/shutdowns to prevent contagion also played a massive role).
This is consistent with your idea that consumers will shift from scarce goods to abundant services, but it's hard to see who these consumers would be. A broad swath of the economy is going to be under pressure, and once the first negative jobs report comes out other consumers are going to retrench.
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