I have put up a page on my Substack to house various political data trackers. First up is an average of Trump's approval rating w/ comparisons to past presidents. Methodology & more to come. Trump job approval, Mar. 20 Approve: 47.6% Disapprove: 49.0% Net: -1.4 gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/data - ThreadSky

gelliottmorris.com • 12 days ago

I have put up a page on my Substack to house various political data trackers. First up is an average of Trump's approval rating w/ comparisons to past presidents. Methodology & more to come.

Trump job approval, Mar. 20
Approve: 47.6%
Disapprove: 49.0%
Net: -1.4

https://gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/data

Comments

disabledveteran65.bsky.social•12 days ago

Your off on your Data on Rump he has a 50% disapproval rating as of today,your going to post post it correctly.

lynn101.bsky.social•12 days ago

📌

boboinparadise.bsky.social•12 days ago

1st week was good...

abbie4science.bsky.social•12 days ago

wait till the mail and SS checks stop coming....

neqone.bsky.social•12 days ago

I would love to help fund your content but don't want to do that through Substack. I know "just moving to Ghost" or whatever is a tall order. I'd happily subscribe to a Patreon even if you didn't cross-post any and/or subscriber only content there like Parker Molloy does.

i-lovecoffee.bsky.social•12 days ago

There is zero chance it's 47%. Just like Tesla stock hovering around the low 200s despite even more horrible news for him and his cars. More boycotts, more recalls, more bans, more vandalism, more divertimento from EU markets, and on and on and on. Yet it's relatively stable now. No way.

gelliottmorris.com•12 days ago

Here's the historical chart some people have been asking for (@jonathanbernstein.bsky.social)

speck0dust.bsky.social•12 days ago

Do approval ratings matter when you wield absolute power?

4one6ix.bsky.social•12 days ago

His power is a function of his popularity.

beihai.bsky.social•12 days ago

in 2017 Trump had the benefit of a growing economy he didn't go out of his way to destroy. every sector of the economy is starting to take a hit. where is the growth supposed to come from? maybe when Trump pushes through his tax cuts for super rich they might buy some more yachts.

annsbeck.bsky.social•12 days ago

Go Jimmy!!

mrhassel.bsky.social•11 days ago

Approval doesn't matter. They have the power and they are not giving it up.

beepboopclaptrap.bsky.social•12 days ago

How is it BETTER than 2017

flaminghearts.bsky.social•12 days ago

Because from the perspective of many of his voters and their News streams, he’s “getting shit done.”

ayayronk.bsky.social•12 days ago

📌

gelliottmorris.com•12 days ago

I wanted to get this data up as a public service for now, but we are still exploring whether this will be the final home for it. If you could see yourself subscribing to support poll aggregation, other data work, and editorial analysis, please pledge at: https://gelliottmorris.substack.com/subscribe/

westvillagecrank.bsky.social•12 days ago

“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.” ― Theodore Roosevelt

Please share this with everyone here, X, Meta, wherever...

lojikul.bsky.social•12 days ago

I have to say, switching from Substack would make the difference for me personally. @kevinmkruse.bsky.social has an explainer somewhere on how he did it, and I’d guess with your pull the concierge service would hook you up.

bpaige.bsky.social•12 days ago

This is a day to day comparison

litbowl.bsky.social•12 days ago

Thank you for all of this! Quick Q: Are the Reagan, George W, and Obama charts comparing to their second terms, or their first terms? Obv with Trump's being nonconsecutive there's solid arguments both ways for which it's more comparable to.

dangubiti.bsky.social•12 days ago

Wow that Jimmy Carter guy was really killing it. He must have gone on to have an incredibly successful two term legacy

beihai.bsky.social•12 days ago

you do know this was for the first 6 months, right? that things tend to happen over 4 years too, right? 4 years are LONGER than 6 months. am I going too fast?
stagflation and Iran hostages killed Carter's Presidency. had he invaded Iran he'd have likely won re-election but hostages would have died

gfwellman.bsky.social•12 days ago

Oddly, that 6 months description didn't jump out upon a first read. I literally had to go back and re-read the intro to graph to see it. I think this is because many people are used to seeing such graphs over 4 year terms, or over an entire presidency.

gfwellman.bsky.social•12 days ago

Indeed, I came to the replies to question the data, since I know that several of the Presidents in that graph ended up with much lower approvals than shown (e.g. W). It all makes sense when you realize it's only 6 months, but that's an unusual choice of time frame.

rankxiii.bsky.social•12 days ago

🙃

gumligen.bsky.social•12 days ago

How did this guy get re-elected?

Are American's memories really that short?

divector.bsky.social•12 days ago

Biden and Harris ran a terrible campaign. It was dreadful to watch them fumble. And then just two months of the Trump admin proved that dread justified.

herserenehighness.bsky.social•12 days ago

Swing voters are flighty and ignorant, yes! Most people who really pay attention are reliable partisans.

stealthisbook.bsky.social•12 days ago

I feel like their options were that limited. The GOP nomination was thoroughly steered by their freaky base, and having gotten that sewn up the general election against a candidate running as an avatar of the status quo didn't take an overwhelming amount of effort given substantial media support

yeahduff.bsky.social•12 days ago

Nah, that doesn't matter unless they forgot what it was like before. You might be sick of balogna sandwiches but you'll still have it for lunch if the only other choice is a baseball bat to the head.

stealthisbook.bsky.social•12 days ago

You'd think that, but that would've taken a Biden administration messaging that they were actively unfucking the previous four years, rather than rolling up their sleeves and chugging along. It's like there was an entire administration that tried not to acknowledge the hovering presence on the right

yeahduff.bsky.social•12 days ago

...because people forgot.

ejgraff.bsky.social•12 days ago

So he's doing better than he did in his first term??!! 🤔

fringleton.bsky.social•12 days ago

I think this is just because those who voted for him in 2016 didn't really know what he was about. Now they know and it's exactly what they want. Those who didn't vote for him in 2016 remain unimpressed.

dkboyd.bsky.social•12 days ago

Well, his disapproval is less severe. In terms of what he's doing, though.... 🤬

moreacomment.bsky.social•12 days ago

Can you have a version of the historical comparison “zoomed in”? 5-point lines would be more useful for recent comparisons (and comparisons with pre-2016 presidents seem a bit quaint anyway).

gelliottmorris.com•12 days ago

what do you mean by 5-point lines?

moreacomment.bsky.social•12 days ago

Show 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 instead of 0 25 50 75 100. I’m sure there are fancy statistical words for what I’m asking for!

moreacomment.bsky.social•12 days ago

Oh, and thank you, of course!

rhymedirective.bsky.social•12 days ago

lol amazing

westvillagecrank.bsky.social•12 days ago

Nothing to offer, G. Elliot, but gratitude.

erchristensen.bsky.social•12 days ago

So he's doing better the second time around?

sonofafitch.bsky.social•12 days ago

More people voted for him this time around, which means it takes a little longer for buyers remorse to set in.

rankxiii.bsky.social•12 days ago

Ok Jimmy Carter, I see you.

rolodexpropaganda.bsky.social•12 days ago

Re: the comparison to Trump 1, can we presume that those favorability polls were just as wrong as the 2020 polls? Like, is the reason he appears to be slightly more popular now just that the polling underestimated his strength prior to 2020?

dukeofsnoop.bsky.social•12 days ago

Gotta love that the only president that had a lower approval rating is Trump during first term

gargalorian.bsky.social•12 days ago

Not trying to be annoying but for which GWB term is that? Wonder if given the different circumstances, his second term started with him being more popular than the first or not.

amyrulocal.bsky.social•12 days ago

This data is depressing. He is far more unpopular than recent president, yet the damage he is doing is enormous.

agadfly.bsky.social•12 days ago

Source?

chasedbrownstein.bsky.social•12 days ago

People have been going on about his approval being higher now than in term 1, but given how close the trends compare, I still wonder if it's actually about pollster adjustment more accurately capturing sentiment of the country. Maybe we are *exactly* where we were in 2017

yusufkarmali.bsky.social•12 days ago

So he is doing better than himself on 2017. Quite worrying.

myasun.bsky.social•12 days ago

Unbelievable. How many were polled and from where?

chrisliotta.bsky.social•12 days ago

47.6% approval is way too high for this felon Trump who is destroying our government to pave the way for one man rule. The bigger they are the harder they fall.

pgregory.bsky.social•12 days ago

Hell yeah, Elliot. Thank you, and good work.

ethanfletcher.bsky.social•12 days ago

MANDATE!!!!!!!

lawrencemc.bsky.social•12 days ago

Why is the approval rating so high?
WTF is the matter with some people?

uncircuitous.bsky.social•12 days ago

Looks like #democrats should be studying the dos and don’ts of the Johnson Administration. To get those kind of approval ratings perhaps fire and hire better political consultation. We certainly some kind of salvation to heal a divided nation. #DNC

fastbreak78.bsky.social•12 days ago

They are bought.

bevbos.bsky.social•12 days ago

Thank you for doing this. Also, that 47% of people still approve of this man is just so completely depressing.

infinitelyloopy.bsky.social•11 days ago

Starting April 2nd I would expect the downward slope of approval to become steeper.

No matter what people think of your immigration policies, you can’t tank the economy and not take a massive hit to your numbers.

blueicicle.bsky.social•12 days ago

📌 great. Thank you!

99edgar.bsky.social•12 days ago

Who are these 47.6% idiots??

andyrags.bsky.social•12 days ago

Trump’s job approval and Tesla’s share price seem following the same trajectory- crashing down!

ringerinnyc.bsky.social•12 days ago

Does it matter what his approval is? I doubt he cares at this point and it won’t stop him in any way

fascinatorfun.bsky.social•12 days ago

I still find it deeply shocking that 47% “approve”

That really is an indictment on American voters.

bartolomeo76.bsky.social•12 days ago

It’s a testament to how disconnected the information environment has become from reality. The gap between the real world and its distorted version will eventually grow so vast that it all comes crashing down.

itsskylinetime.bsky.social•12 days ago

Here’s to hoping that comes in time for it to matter. I have my doubts.

670rv.bsky.social•12 days ago

Just about 20% of us:
https://bsky.app/profile/justinwolfers.bsky.social/post/3lkv6fwh7et2l

670rv.bsky.social•11 days ago

Looking @gelliottmorris.com posted and @justinwolfers.bsky.social posted - it may be too early those who voted for Trump will dig in even go bad like in Brexit like he says:
https://bsky.app/profile/retailguru.bsky.social/post/3lkv5sa5psc2b

witchyvet.bsky.social•12 days ago

Who is being polled? I find the 47% very hard to believe, unless they’re polling faux news viewers. I don’t trust polls much.

leftofcenterus.bsky.social•12 days ago

The fact the line started so far apart shows how dumb Americans are and how little attention they pay to politics.

acimjim.bsky.social•12 days ago

Reaching those who approve is our job.

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