Another way of looking at this is that what's happening in Syria, Assad's failure, might not necessarily be an overall failure for Putin. It might be allowed or even managed. If Assad's fall was seen as inevitable, leading to further destabilisation, it could still benefit Putin
Assad’s Syria vanishing in days indicates how weak Iran and Russia are right now. It’s unbelievable that we’ve elected a man who will go out of his way to help Putin by slow walking or stopping aid to Ukraine, letting him off the hook.
fact. somehow, we hafta keep them armed and fighting. Ukrainians are fierce. Russians are morally bankrupt. Our nation (US) seems to be teetering to moral bankruptcy as well and it’s disturbing to my core that the country I served just willfully (even if ignorantly) REelected a criminal to be prez
If time is factored in to it, then possibly not. Also if it's considered that Putin doesn't need to conquer Ukraine, just contain it, and use the conflict itself as part of a wider strategy including brinkmanship.
Yashar is it true we have been targeting strikes against "ISIS," to the tune of 75 strikes over the past 48 hours? If so, whose side are we on? And did we do this?
An important factor is that many in Assad's army had deserted & opposed Assad in 2011/2012 but were pardoned (& spared torture or execution) if they rejoined his army.
They weren't prepared to die for the tyrant.
It may be worth noting that HTS (or Nusra) has had effective control of Idlib since 2015, and large parts of surrounding Aleppo. Which is probably pretty key. I suspect overall this took a lot longer than 11 days really
The Russians are still there and are not leaving. They cut a deal to secure Hmeimim air base in Syria's Latakia province and its naval facility at Tartous on the coast. Losing Tartous would be a serious blow to Russia's ability to project power in the Middle East, the Mediterranean and Africa.
Possibly it got to a stage where Assad's usefulness to Putin was gone, and really Tartus and Latakia are the most important bits of land to Putin. As long as they remain in Russian control, further destabilisation of Syria might work for him
For HTS in Syria, they may not been fighting ISIL because they are probably only opposed to each other in terms of strategy. HTS are perhaps a rebranded Nusra Force (formerly linked to Al Qaeda), and focus is on Syria, whereas ISIL want a wider, possibly global caliphate
Iran has a big country called Iraq in between them.
Iran does not have the capabilities to project power or deploy abroad. Their approach has always been to finance and arm local militias to become proxies for them.
In the case of Syria, these proxies were too weak to act (Hezbollah, Alawites et.)
Again Israel, which won't allow any ammunition by plane (2 planes tried and had to go back) and control the Iraqi borders from the sky. Assad's Syria was isolated unless Russia would sent troops, which it couldn't...
Daily Israeli airstrikes on Syria’s military infrastructure for months have been a major factor in the demoralisation and reduced capacity of the Syrian government’s Syrian Arab Army.
Hi. Can you help someone understand who is not from the region?
* Who are the "rebels"?
* Are the "rebels" and the Kurds not allies?
* Potential the two groups to fight each other now they're the largest?
* Or potential Syria splits and Kurds get their independence?
* Why is IS generally ignored?
@youronly.one not an expert, but
* rebels are a bunch of different things, but current push was by Hayat Tahrir al Sham, which is an islamic militia
* they are not friends with the kurds on ideological and political (I.e. Turkey supports them)
* yeah
* I would not bet on it. If we're lucky we […]
HTS are an evolution of Nusra Force, who I think remained in control of Idlib since 2015, and parts of surrounding Aleppo, and by various accounts, have ruled with strict and harsh Islamic laws. The leader was aligned with both Al Qaeda and Islamic State of Iraq
@riffraff Wow. I like their winner-loser assessment, especially outlining the who's who in the region's geopolitics.
It's indeed hard to predict where this will lead to. The concerns of the other countries in region are truly justified. So many possible new futures (and new conflicts as well) […]
* Does this mean Iran no longer has influence or control over Syria?
* Are both Turkey and Israel eyeing expanding their respective influence and/or buffer/controlled lands?
* Does this mean Syria was wiped from the maps due to lack of a recognized government?
I could see Russian troops laying down their arms and refusing to die for Putin any longer. That's how the Russian Revolution began, refusal to continue the slaughter of WWI. And every Russian knows that history.
Hope so. I don't see this coming soon. 700,000+ dead Russians, but they still keep pushing like fking zombies. They have now several times less armor, but they attack by foot. Crazy lunatics. Ukraine needs millions of artillery munitions for stopping this flood of half-dead bodies.
I remember a story, not sure if it's true, that Russian soldiers were sent to the front in WWI without weapons and told to take them off the bodies of dead soldiers.
It was a 'normal' practice for Russians. Especially during the WWII. The soldiers without weapons were the men of conquered countries, like Ukraine, Kazakstan etc. Behind were armed Russians with mashine guns shooting in the back those who didn't want to obey.
A real hero, Assad, who fights against Shariaist jihadists and Nazi-minded liberals to protect liberal minorities in Syria from getting slaughtered. Colonial Nazi liberals wouldn't mind those liberal minorities getting killed.Assad defended them against this psycho coalition of ISIS, and the Biden.
Why do we need massive fleets of tanks and jets when, in reality, a few Toyota pickups with armed men seem sufficient to take over a nation? One Toyota dealership should be all it takes to take down Putin.
Part A- confusion and celebration sound good. Part B -installing strict theocracy unnerves me for this region. Though I’m also super edgy about USA’s own looming theocracratic leanings.
Amazing visual! Thanks! I learned something new today on Bluesky! No longer do I have to question my sources on information to see if what I'm being fed is truth or lies! Thank you!
Comments
But they are. It's taking a big toll but they are winning.
They weren't prepared to die for the tyrant.
That's how you do a special military operation
Russia was unable to fight because they are busy in Ukraine.
Hezbollah was unable to fight because they were annihilated by Israel.
Idk why Iran couldn't do anything.
Iran does not have the capabilities to project power or deploy abroad. Their approach has always been to finance and arm local militias to become proxies for them.
In the case of Syria, these proxies were too weak to act (Hezbollah, Alawites et.)
Beyond that, yeah, what you say is true. And one is led to believe the financing is collapsing.
https://youtu.be/lFNsO28Qvlo?si=A7f-QeYqHwamoF5p
* Who are the "rebels"?
* Are the "rebels" and the Kurds not allies?
* Potential the two groups to fight each other now they're the largest?
* Or potential Syria splits and Kurds get their independence?
* Why is IS generally ignored?
* rebels are a bunch of different things, but current push was by Hayat Tahrir al Sham, which is an islamic militia
* they are not friends with the kurds on ideological and political (I.e. Turkey supports them)
* yeah
* I would not bet on it. If we're lucky we […]
BTW you may enjoy this article from Politico
https://www.politico.eu/article/bashar-assad-syria-downfall-the-winners-and-losers/
It's indeed hard to predict where this will lead to. The concerns of the other countries in region are truly justified. So many possible new futures (and new conflicts as well) […]
* Are both Turkey and Israel eyeing expanding their respective influence and/or buffer/controlled lands?
* Does this mean Syria was wiped from the maps due to lack of a recognized government?
Thank you. 🙇🏽
First a short chaotic period along with confusion about who is really in charge, plus celebrations.
Then HTS effectively install a strict Islamic regime, under the guise of being more moderate.