Putin is preparing a plan for the incoming Trump administration to partition Ukraine, per Interfax-Ukraine. Moscow would seize the east, divvy up the west between Poland, Romania & Hungary, then install a vassal state in the remaining rump. (Full details in Alt Text) interfax.com.ua/news/general... - ThreadSky

justinling.ca • 109 days ago

Putin is preparing a plan for the incoming Trump administration to partition Ukraine, per Interfax-Ukraine.

Moscow would seize the east, divvy up the west between Poland, Romania & Hungary, then install a vassal state in the remaining rump. (Full details in Alt Text)
https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/1028868.html

Comments

justinling.ca•109 days ago

Hard to know if this a serious Kremlin plan, or just something that got cooked up at the Ministry of Defence to set expectations for likely negotiations with the U.S.

But this shit does lay waste to the idea that Moscow has any interest in freezing the contact lines as they are now.

turbounicorn.bsky.social•109 days ago

There's a chance that it's true. Putin's puppets in Romania and Hungary have expressed irredentist claims this year, although not in the last month or so.

It remains to be seen whether said puppets can get a victory in the coming elections, though.

justinling.ca•109 days ago

There is some limited optimism amongst some Ukrainians, in part because Putin seems sure to over-play his hand in negotiations with Trump.

Both Trump and Putin need to claim a clear victory in ending the conflict. Freezing the lines is probably good enough for Trump, but probably not for Putin.

justinling.ca•109 days ago

There is no world in which Poland and Romania go along with this plan. (Hungary? Still probably not. But...)

This is delusional, imperialist, and totally ignores what the Ukrainian people want. But this *does* reflect Moscow's thinking on the legitimacy of Ukraine itself.

turbounicorn.bsky.social•109 days ago

Hungary would absolutely go with it, and a Romanian challenger that stands a good chance of winning the presidential elections (if not legislative) has been pushing irredentist claims for his whole career, basically.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Simion

Hopefully we can avert this guy coming to power.

justinling.ca•109 days ago

If you want to understand the thinking behind the map, you need to understand that Vladimir Putin is obsessed with the idea that Russia's boundaries were forged in the 17th century, and that they long to be redrawn.

This is from his interview with Tucker Carlson:

justinling.ca•109 days ago

I actually think there's a lot to be gleaned from Carlson's interview. He went to Moscow thinking he'd find a kindred spirit in Putin — instead he got a history lecture and a list of centuries-old grievances from an imperialist madman.
https://www.bugeyedandshameless.com/p/vladimir-putin-rewrites-history-and

michaelwade.bsky.social•109 days ago

As the saying goes, never meet your heroes.

d-cym.bsky.social•109 days ago

Whether an agreement is reached or not, what Putin wants to establish is that smaller nations have no agency. The fate of the world is something that will be decided by a handful of the most powerful men in the world and everyone else has to go along. Putin wins the moment Trump agrees to talk.

jryerson.bsky.social•109 days ago

The real war is not land but disinformation, sadly , Republicans are sucking it all in

shaunmckinnon.bsky.social•109 days ago

I suspect it isn't legit, but who knows. Assuming it is, it's 100% a trap to convince Poland to takes on new territory that *must* be liberated later.

metronautix.bsky.social•109 days ago

I don't really see Poland and Romania going along with that

justinling.ca•109 days ago

Oh there's no world in which they do. That's either trolling or delusional.

johnnyehm.bsky.social•109 days ago

Would line up with this: "On October 13, 1990 Poland and Ukraine agreed to the "Declaration on the foundations and general directions in the development of Polish–Ukrainian relations".... neither country has any territorial claims against the other, and will not bring any in the future."

agaland2dogs.bsky.social•109 days ago

Given Moscow's predilection for spreading misinfo, I'd say it's trolling. The US inter-presidential moment is a perfect time to be sowing yet more confusion.

handle.invalid•109 days ago

Or the hopes by the Kremlin that big daddy US can "make them". At which point I do believe the rest of Europe will have a few things to say. Then again, they might just roll over... it's that kind of world these days :(

barrhavenist.bsky.social•109 days ago

They would have got a better deal in April 2022 if Boris Johnson et al hadn’t scuttled negotiations https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/09/02/diplomacy-watch-why-did-the-west-stop-a-peace-deal-in-ukraine/

justinling.ca•109 days ago

This is hanging *a lot* on one line from one piece, citing U.S. defense officials. And it's contradicted by a lot of other info.

We know Kyiv kept pushing negotiations through mid-April — weeks after Johnson's visit — to get Zelensky and Putin in the same room. It was the Kremlin which refused.

barrhavenist.bsky.social•109 days ago

Thanks Justin, do you have a source for that?

justinling.ca•109 days ago

This comes from Simon Shuster's biography of Zelensky, The Showman.

In April, Putin also declared the talks at a "dead end" because of Ukrainian "provocations" around Bucha (i.e. calling out the atrocities.) https://www.ft.com/content/6f6f74ae-56bd-45e7-ad40-51a87775f1a6

justinling.ca•109 days ago

What, I think, Hill and Stent were hearing from the Americans was how there *was* genuine progress towards a deal in early April, but it soured because the EU stepped up to deliver aid in a genuine way.

But that wasn't Kyiv turning its back on a deal, it was Moscow getting angry that it was losing.

barrhavenist.bsky.social•109 days ago

You mean military aid?

elliottanderson.bsky.social•108 days ago

Samuel Charap and Sergei Radchenko did a fairly deep dive into these negotiations for Foreign Affairs and quoted Ukrainian negotiators saying a deal hd been weeks away from completion in April 2022

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/talks-could-have-ended-war-ukraine