New paper published in JAMA Network Open tracking causes of excess deaths in 25-44 USA population from 2011-2022 with provisional data used for 2023. jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... - ThreadSky

jsm2334.bsky.social • 37 days ago

New paper published in JAMA Network Open tracking causes of excess deaths in 25-44 USA population from 2011-2022 with provisional data used for 2023.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2829783

Comments

catherine292862.bsky.social•37 days ago

Very interesting. Did the data only start being collected in 2011? The expansion of excess deaths across the years is remarkable.

jsm2334.bsky.social•37 days ago

They compared 2011-2023 to the 1999-2010 period used as "expected" baseline.

originalcatlady.bsky.social•37 days ago

What is this telling us? More people died under Joe Biden than all other Presidents? What?

jsm2334.bsky.social•37 days ago

I wouldn't politicize the results.

Just shows which health risks in this age group have increased over time, and which increased during the pandemic, and shows COVID-19 was non-negligible in the heart of the pandemic.

406inthelou.bsky.social•37 days ago

📌

jeirvine.bsky.social•37 days ago

Interesting. So in 2021 an additional ~115 deaths per 100,000 of 24-40 year olds above what would be expected from 1999-2010 trends.

Drug Poisoning accounts for more than COVID. Would that include opiate ODs?

jsm2334.bsky.social•37 days ago

Yes I'd expect that is the primary source -- opiates and fentanyl.

patti52.bsky.social•37 days ago

Drug poisoning deaths increased in 2020, and that increase was sustained for the next 4 years, compared to the previous 4 years. My first speculation is ⬆️ availability = ⬆️ deaths, but that’s not very scientific of me. Is there correlation?

itsmepd.bsky.social•37 days ago

Also big increases in suicide 2015 and on 😔.

darjr.bsky.social•37 days ago

What’s your conclusions?

jsm2334.bsky.social•37 days ago

Shows that there are a number of death causes that have been increasing over their assumed baseline even before the pandemic that have continued to decrease.

jsm2334.bsky.social•37 days ago

Shows that COVID-19 was non-ignorable risk of death in this age group in 2020-2021 especially, and a little in 2022, but this risk has come down as SARS-CoV-2 transitioned to endemic disease.

wildgirl4375.bsky.social•37 days ago

Wow looks like the vaccine works.

jsm2334.bsky.social•37 days ago

I wouldn't try to infer vaccine effects from these global death numbers by year, but data/studies split by vaccination status and adjusting for key confounders have suggested the vaccines "worked" very well to reduce mortality and morbidity from COVID-19, including in this age group.

wildgirl4375.bsky.social•37 days ago

It seems like there is a correlation between getting the vaccines and less death from Covid. Obviously we are years away from knowing for sure but if it is working at all I am in for the long haul.

stayyoungnyc.bsky.social•37 days ago

Thank you for taking the time to add your thoughtful replies.

zizouille.bsky.social•37 days ago

This is shocking!

hummingbird78.bsky.social•37 days ago

I need "excess" explained, please. Drug poisoning, transport deaths increased last four years.

jsm2334.bsky.social•37 days ago

The paper has the methodological details, but "excess" defined as relative to death rates for 1999 to 2010 time period.

The drug poisoning includes overdoses (fentanyl was a dominant cause) and transport deaths are primarily car accidents which have increased during the pandemic.

timviles.bsky.social•37 days ago

Does this suggest that there was a much worse side effect of COVID and with longer lasting effects, and social vectors? Could it be lockdown and its after effects?

yourbonusmom.bsky.social•37 days ago

There is a lot of Long Covid out there that has increased deaths from stroke and other cardiopulmonary issues. Also cognitive impairment from LC is a thing and does have social vectors, in depression, suicide in adults and learning/behavioral deficits in children.

thephoenixnetwork.bsky.social•37 days ago

Would you agree that alcohol and drug addiction are actually symptoms of deeper, personal & societal psychological issues? Because when we look at these stats we see a mental health crisis - lots of depressed, lonely, stressed, unsupported people looking for escape.

bbenpen.bsky.social•37 days ago

Absolutely. When faced with a lack of access to affordable medical & mental health care, untreated physical and mental disorders drive people to self-medicate however they can. Plus, add in a lack of research funding in all of the above areas so no one fully understands the issues and voilá.

jsm2334.bsky.social•37 days ago

Yeah and a lot of time on their hands with not much to do.

But the drug overdose problem was increasing for a number of years before the pandemic

thephoenixnetwork.bsky.social•36 days ago

Looks like the uptick has been since around 2014. It makes me wonder if the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 was a factor.

In any case, these trends unfortunately don't seem to be slowing anytime soon. The rise of alternatives like telehealth or online sessions seem like a step in the right

thephoenixnetwork.bsky.social•36 days ago

direction though, as far as addressing supply vs demand.

It feels like we're heading for a future where people will have to start relying on each other for more and more for support, rather than only professionals. Which may not be such a bad thing, r.e. social cohesion? 🤷

z4m4.bsky.social•37 days ago

Feels like the people on top got the order to let as many Americans to die as they can.
Every country were the new axis of eviel has gotten some kind of control is experiencing numbers of deaths well above average, covid ot not.

katinthesoup.bsky.social•37 days ago

I didn’t see in the link where it can be viewed by state. Do you know if that data is available?

jsm2334.bsky.social•37 days ago

I don't think the authors broke it down by state, but it is CDC Wonder data that is publicly available so others could download and do their own state-level analyses if desired

lucasaurelius.bsky.social•37 days ago

WAS publicly available. CDC is purging its data bases. On the theory that what they don’t know can’t hurt them?

lorien11.bsky.social•37 days ago

On the theory that what they don’t know won’t hurt the politicians or the corporations. People can’t make demands about problems if they don’t know the problems exist.

punkfae.bsky.social•37 days ago

Wild how EVERY cause of death jumped at least slightly

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