The former MI6 Chief, Sir John Sawers, has told LBC’s Andrew Marr that ‘we might see some border incursions into the Baltic States’ by Russia ‘just to test whether Article 5 is still there’
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That’s a big might. They are somewhat stretched and the Poles won’t wait for invocation. I think this is highly unlikely and disastrous for Trump. Hence Putin won’t do it. JC even the Germans wouldn’t wait.
It would be interesting to see how a 'minor' border incursion would be responded to. Limited action, or regarding it as a fully fledged attack on NATO.
Another unclear provocation would be if Ukraine were forced to shoot down a missile which then landed and destroyed property on a neighbouring country, which I think was alleged to have happened around 2-3 years ago.
A few apologists and just naïve fools who disagree. But what seems to be the loudest on social media is very much the tiniest majority in the real world.
it is when polling here shows it .. sure no one wants war but Putin has to be stopped and suffer ... he of course now has Trump on his side and the dems totally frozen
This, was a thought that also occurred to me if we (UK/EU) don’t put troops on the ground now in Ukraine. Also, Moldova is at imminent risk if Putin succeeds in Ukraine.
Let's bear in mind how well Russia's "special military operation" into Ukraine went back in Feb 2022 when the Russian Army was set to take Kyiv in 3 days.
Like, I know Russia has Learned Important Lessons About How Wars are Now Fought(tm), and we shouldn’t dismiss that, but Poland in 2025 isn’t Ukraine in 2022 and I kind of feel like Poland is just itching to tear the heart out of the Russian army and then take a shit in the hole in its chest?
Thanks. Good article. But I don’t think this sort of thing is unusual. But it may increase. Putin will be looking to push boundaries and test Europe’s resolve.
Comments
Another unclear provocation would be if Ukraine were forced to shoot down a missile which then landed and destroyed property on a neighbouring country, which I think was alleged to have happened around 2-3 years ago.
This is less a question about whether Article 5 still applies and more a question about how stupid the Russian Army is.
https://bsky.app/profile/pickardje.bsky.social/post/3ljl64f3ftc26
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-alaska-putin-vyacheslav-volodin-b2118942.html
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2025/03/04/russian-su-35s-daring-drone-flyby-leaves-france-hard-fuming/
What a bonkers situation.