Ah. That’s the whole 2024 race right there, distilled into three charts. TL;DR looks like an enthusiasm gap. Not a huge one, but enough. - ThreadSky

jackjenkins.me • 3 days ago

Ah.

That’s the whole 2024 race right there, distilled into three charts.

TL;DR looks like an enthusiasm gap. Not a huge one, but enough.

Comments

attimowens.bsky.social•2 days ago

📌

ericcolumbus.bsky.social•3 days ago

In light of the results it seems remarkable that 15% of Trump’s 2020 voters didn’t vote for him in 2024. (I wonder if this includes those who died or otherwise became ineligible, although that’s presumably a small chunk.)

kevinleecaster.bsky.social•3 days ago

PEW's polling of nonvoters suggest that more of them would have voted red than blue, but I wonder if there's a difference between whether liberal or conservative nonvoters are more likely to be convinced to vote.

I have no idea how to convince them to care enough to vote, just curious.

bettymal.bsky.social•2 days ago

Looks like misogyny and racism to me.

mayaenaise.bsky.social•3 days ago

📌

skofarrell.bsky.social•3 days ago

Huh. Turns out that nominating the candidate in '24 that lost a robust primary in '20 didn't work.

bogyankee.bsky.social•3 days ago

The Democratic Party and their cheerleaders will never, EVER, understand this. Understanding *this* would blow up their whole world view.

Probably "racism" and "misogyny". 🧐

skofarrell.bsky.social•3 days ago

US Presidential race is a popularity contest.

bogyankee.bsky.social•3 days ago

Well, there are things that go into popularity. Starting from maybe a baseline charisma, being authentic, listening, advocating (in word *and* deed) for positive and popular change ...

...or, you know, maybe Beyonce will endorse the candidate?

kgrant1073.bsky.social•2 days ago

Looks like misogyny and racism to me.

adistantdream.bsky.social•3 days ago

There's a defection gap of 2% (effectively 4%), a retention gap of 4%, and a persuasion gap of 2%. The 2024 race was lost on all fronts.

bogyankee.bsky.social•3 days ago

...but the consultants enriched themselves and, after all, isn't that what really matters?

oceanmantakeme.bsky.social•3 days ago

Would like to see a bit more about what these 2024 non-voters did in 2016. Could be an enthusiasm gap, but could also be unlikely voters who took advantage of pandemic changes that made it easier to vote that dropped away once these changes were reversed.

goldstein.bsky.social•3 days ago

To what extent was the lack of enthusiasm driven by racist or sexist impulses?

antimattermorrigan.bsky.social•3 days ago

I saw a focus group at one point with Latino voters in Florida that was absolutely terrifying on that front. Not a single Latino male in that focus group was willing to vote for a woman for president. Which is so weird because like... most Latino countries have had female presidents at some point.

goldstein.bsky.social•3 days ago

I can explain this, actually (I'm a Latino immigrant). The people who get to move to the US are typically (by which I mean almost invariably) much more conservative than the average person back home. The US immigration process weeds out leftists.

radicalcraft.bsky.social•3 days ago

Do to resourcing needs to make that move?

radicalcraft.bsky.social•3 days ago

*Due to

goldstein.bsky.social•3 days ago

Its kinda like why (imo) the US is more religious than Europe. As it turns out, the pilgrims left Europe because they were mad at all the religious tolerance being forced on them. So the religious kooks moved to the US and Europe got to secularize in a "You can't fire me, I quit!" sort of move.

antimattermorrigan.bsky.social•3 days ago

It's been my opinion that USA is more religious than Europe because we needed a cultural bond that could cobble together the 11 regional cultures and literally hundreds of subcultures and immigrant cultures into the absolutely enormous country we have. We're losing the religion but not replacing it

antimattermorrigan.bsky.social•3 days ago

So we're splitting apart culturally, with the most extreme groups acting as centers of gravity because they feel like they at least believe SOMETHING. Our enemies are helping with that and we're loathe to reign them in because 'Free Speech' (and there's always someone helping the side you like)

i-bresnick.bsky.social•2 days ago

It's not just the US immigration process. To the extent (and for the duration) that central and South American governments tend to be to America's left, conservatives with strong feelings about politics are more likely to want to leave. There's some push effect there.

goldstein.bsky.social•2 days ago

Oh absolutely. A lot of pull yourself up by your own bootstrap type folk desperate to move to America where that will be rewarded.

michellemarkel.bsky.social•2 days ago

We need to find out WHY people didn't vote, and WHERE. What about voter suppression through denying eligibility, and bomb threats? Lack of enthusiasm may be a key factor, but there may be others...

metasnark.bsky.social•2 days ago

How accurate is that when you consider that Musk may have (did) skew the results.?? At least in the seven swing states. No analysis can be considered accurate until all voting anomalies are thoroughly investigated.

meadia.bsky.social•3 days ago

It also puts pressure on the “it’s all inflation” argument. It seems a certain segment of Biden voters didn’t want to vote for Harris most likely race or gender based. Kinda jives with what we know about how other groups swung.

sundevil-1984.bsky.social•2 days ago

If only we could trust the vote count.

https://popcrush.com/elon-musk-son-spacex-whatever-we-want/

zachschultzhaus.bsky.social•3 days ago

A tiny enthusiasm gap was enough to kill science in America.

keekerdc.com•3 days ago

here comes the turbolib crowd coming to go “hmm racism and sexism much” when harris was on both tickets and the enthusiasm I’d argue was the same for both campaigns - it’s just that in 2020 there was a global generational crisis that drove low-propensity voters to turn out - and mostly by mail

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