Anyway, some positivity. Ed Davey gave a good smart speech this morning, and I think his party’s new policy on the EU is good for the pro-European cause more broadly and the Liberal Democrats specifically:
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For reference, this is not actually a new party policy. In fact it's a fair way short of the overall party policy (although it's a fair enough policy objective for the next manifesto).
The UK should come back into the EC, it is were you belong.
The world needs a good example of what a free society is, EC is not perfect but it is defenitely the best example of a comunity of countries being together with a common purpose.
There’s another element that makes it smart that I hadn’t thought of this morning, which is that the Lib Dems need to attack Labour in a way which makes “my heart is red but I live in the Cotswolds” types go “fair enough” and still vote tactically, rather than “screw you, Davey”:
My one caveat on Davey's plan is that if joining the customs union is the way to "trump-proof" the economy, is it wise to set a deadline which is after his presidency ends?
Yeah, I thought the theatre around “why we are moving our position” wholly unconvincing for this and other reasons, but I think it did the job of justifying it well enough.
Is an earlier deadline feasible if the detailed terms have to be negotiated (eg David Henig suggesting that the EU might want concessions on freedom of movement)?
Also, the reality is that no government will actually go to the mattresses for the fishing industry in fishing stocks negotiations, so the downsides of customs/regs checks have not been mitigated by greater control over contested fishing stocks.
More broadly, the fishing industry's argument against the EU really is false. The problem was more that Iceland & Norway didn't join the EEC which meant Britain didn't get the same consideration for fishing in traditional non-coastal grounds that France got regards to their fishing near our coast
British people fundamentally do not want to eat the fish that swim near our coasts. Either because we're woke globalists or racist imperialists. Or both.
TBF most of those people are 'my heart is red but my main motivation is that I absolutely fucking hate the Tories' but I take your point that if you can avoid actively alienating them it'll help at the margins
My seat and quite a few around here are described as ‘kind yuppies’. The balance is quite hard right fiscally but broadly liberal and globalist sensibilities. So “boost the economy and be closer to the EU” probably isn’t going to scare a lot of those Tories/2024 Tory>LD switchers.
I suspect the main attack line will be “but you can’t do trade deals on your own in the CU”. An easy counterpoint is that none of the trade deals to date move the needle. The CU would. But also, I do wonder if at that point, the SM starts to become… obvious. At which point you’re at ‘CM 2.0’.
What is curious: this is *not* the previous LD plan, which IIRC omitted the CU entirely. That plan was: stop being dicks to the EU > join as much shit as possible > ramp up mobility > join SM. So I wonder if a political calculation here is also to stop Con+Lab wanging on about FOM.
Your point about invisibility is really interesting. My understanding is the SM does way more for corps and individuals in the UK. But it’s less obvious. CU is relatively ‘minor’ but tangible for business. That said, CU but no SM wouldn’t result in fully frictionless trade, would it?
I continue to believe that Tim Farron and Jo Swinson both did a massive disservice to the party by not having every LibDem campaign sign read "REMAIN" in black text on a yellow background.
Do not underestimate the extent to which the Conservatives have poisoned the well in terms of goodwill in the EU member states; the Tories systematically undermined UK-EU diplomacy in a concerted effort to prevent future governments from undoing Brexit.
I am saying that the reason why it was not in the manifesto is not because it is a “longer term objective”. That’s just the political rationale for the timing now.
The main botheration I have with this sort of view is when, in your opinion, can parties start having policies that were not in an Election manifesto? If 6 months isn’t an enough of a gap, when is? Because they do actually need to move on from the last election.
But rejoining the Single market was in their manifesto. I appreciate that’s a different thing to what he said today, but it’s not a million miles away and so I don’t think your ire is all that fair.
Agree with this - the point about the customs element being more visible/comprehensible to voters is a good one. Easier to connect with their current/target voters with small business folks going "this paperwork cost me X a year, now I can't hire another person"
Obvs @ boarding skool wanking is somewhat close to the alpha & omega of daily routine… yet but also was traditional for an older boy from your prep to welcome you to your new school
& he said splaff.! & it was a thing: ‘how high up the wall can you splaff?’
Given the on-going multi-year absence of any transformational trade deals, are there any practical, real world downsides to rejoining the Customs Union? Setting aside "the politics" of it, that is.
There may be some part of the UK economy that ends up always getting screwed in EU trade deals we wouldn’t set, but at a national level I cannot think of anything that spits out as anything other than net positive.
Rejoining the Customs Union would essentially entail the UK giving up the prospect of an independent trade policy for the sole purpose of not having to fill out a few forms on goods, which given we are a services economy is a *terrible* idea.
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The world needs a good example of what a free society is, EC is not perfect but it is defenitely the best example of a comunity of countries being together with a common purpose.
No longer able to buy refills in the UK, I had to splaff £150 & buy 10 to meet their post-Brexit paperwork hassle 🙄
Apparently should have said spaff. But - tbh 😂 - when I moved from prep school to big school (Charterhouse) I was taught ‘splaff’
@ my prep, we’d communal showers (& a master to watch us shower, doubtless to safeguard 😉) But @ Charterhouse we’d cubicles so..
& he said splaff.! & it was a thing: ‘how high up the wall can you splaff?’
Imagine it’s totes the same state skools
I am curious to hear what Davey had to say, especially when Labour aren't really touching EU other than a friends with benefits relationship.
Certainly unaware of any actual downsides.
"Since 2019 British goods exports have risen by just 0.3% p.a., compared with an OECD average of 4.2%. Small businesses have done worst, with exports dropping by 30%...A new study by the LSE finds that goods exports have fallen by 6.4% since...2021."
https://www.economist.com/britain/2025/01/23/britains-government-lacks-a-clear-europe-policy