The fanboy-ruled r/teslamotors subreddit is almost unanimously shitting on the Model 3 refresh, which bodes very poorly for this effort to pump the flagging sales of Tesla's most affordable model
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Tesla is stacking discounts on 3 and Y right now, and basically all of the year-over-year growth is coming from the Model Y, which nearly doubled in the Jan-August period vs 2022. Model S and Model X are toast despite recent refreshes, down 51 and 44% respectively.
To tease this out: Tesla's modest and belated (by industry standards) styling refreshes do not seem to be propping up demand for Model S and X beyond a short bump, and it looks like they're cruising toward a similar situation with the much more important Model 3. Bad news for the growth narrative!
A huge part of Tesla's perceived success has been not having to retool for sheet metal updates every four years, which is a huge fixed cost. It seems consumers are finally demanding the regular updates every other automaker provides in order to stay interested in the brand. This is a massive shift.
Tesla has no more big markets to open, no more "Full Self-Driving" like demand levers, and the only new product in its pipeline besides these refreshes is Cybertruck... and I'm not sure I would want to bet on that being so popular it revitalizes the growth narrative for Tesla. I guess we'll see tho?
Crappy semi was a complete flop too. Newest roadster is complete vaporware. Bankruptcy looming, Twitter repo could spark it all off. I feel sorry for the people that he abused and injured (not to mention killed).
I'm still wondering how much of Tesla's production is going into fleet sales -- it wouldn't surprise me if it's upward of 30%. This is important, because the way Tesla structures their fleet sales, the constant price cuts will bite them in the ass three years down the road.
Good question. In theory the price cuts could be problematic for the lease side of the business too, right? I wonder how much of the volume that accounts for now too.
I know the Hertz deal is structured that Hertz paid full sticker for the car up front, with Tesla guaranteeing a buyback price at the end. All the price cutting now means that buyback is sure to be higher than the actual market residual value in two years or so.
I don’t know. I assumed new car sales would plummet but I have been wrong. Four people on my block bought Model 3/Ys in the last few months. One replaced a 3 with a new 3. People who don’t care/know about cars are still buying tons of them.
Tesla owners are very loyal and seem to change their cars constantly. Which, great, but how much conquesting -- especially outside California -- is happening? Tesla is the only OEM where we have only a vague idea of real-world numbers.
I may be remembering incorrectly but I do vaguely remember even fans were questioning Elon’s judgement during the Cybertruck launch back in 2019 or at least that’s what was implied (listening to the TC or TQ podcast was the most useful info I’ve found regarding the history of Tesla critics).
So this may be a mere rerun of that episode but unlike now Elon hadn’t fully gone tinfoil hat nor had he torched his reputation on fire like he’s done over the last 22 months.
yeah, that was the first time we saw doubts about a future Tesla from the fanboys, but even that shifted fairly quickly as people realized it could be appreciated/defended as a meme. This is a bread and butter model whose demand is falling, and Tesla needs to reverse that course. More worrying, imo
Agreed tho I will say if the roots of the discontent among the then fans (several have become disillusioned since and Elon blocking Fred Lambert on Twitter seems to be a telling moment as well pre Twitter acquisition) go back to then if not possibly earlier.
Tho idk if I’ve ever talked abt my relationship wrt Tesla over the last 15 years as my story as a gearhead born and raised in a bedroom community to Silicon Valley because I think my story is more representative than the bulls/bears dichotomy so common on social media.
This would be fine as an annual incremental change. But six/seven years for cosmetic tweaks? Also doesn't bode well for a "Juniper" Model Y update. Can't see how this will be enough to fend off competition in China.
Exactly, especially when the bar they have to hit is not just propping up volume until an all-new version drops but actually returning to growth. If Highland/Juniper perform similarly to the Plaid/Raven refreshes, that maybe gets them to Cybertruck SOP... but then that needs to be a smash hit.
no, my read is that Tesla's totally unique ability to just make the same car without meaningful sheet metal updates for way beyond the usual product cycle is reaching the end of its shelf life. They could get away with it when they were hot, but now people seem to expect more (at long last)
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https://autonews.com/sales/tesla-model-3-growth-cools-models-x-and-s-turn-red
Launching the CyberGarbagetruck took their eye off the ball and you can’t go back in time.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/12/tesla-whistleblowers-filed-complaint-to-sec-in-2021-what-it-said.html?taid=652828810c82f000011cc7d8&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter%7Cmain