WHAT DO WE ACTUALLY WIN IN A TRADE WAR WITH CANADA In today's newsletter, I wrote about the tariffs, the logic of reducing foreign dependence on manufactured goods, and Trump's criticism of the CHIPS Act. Sub to the newsletter here and get it in your inbox: www.bloomberg.com/account/news... - ThreadSky

weisenthal.bsky.social • 7 days ago

WHAT DO WE ACTUALLY WIN IN A TRADE WAR WITH CANADA

In today's newsletter, I wrote about the tariffs, the logic of reducing foreign dependence on manufactured goods, and Trump's criticism of the CHIPS Act.

Sub to the newsletter here and get it in your inbox: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/odd-lots

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Comments

liekiller.bsky.social•6 days ago

Secure border and a balanced trade!! They have always hit us with taxes and tariffs and yet buy very little from us in comparison to the dollars we spend with them. Trump wants to equalize the tariffs. I wish people would get educated on tariffs!!

justehgirl.bsky.social•6 days ago

As for border security on drugs and illegal crossings, you need to look at US Border Control numbers, not what Trump is spouting. He just needed a ‘legal’ excuse to do his emergency hogwash.

liekiller.bsky.social•6 days ago

Wrong there has always been a trade imbalance and we employ their people on our auto plants up there. That used to be part of my corp sales territory and we talked about that all the time when I was with those guys!! Go look up the list of things they don't buy from us.

justehgirl.bsky.social•6 days ago

Auto parts…part of the free trade deal US signed. And like I said…take out the oil and there is no imbalance for US. The U.S. gains in cheaper oil than their own,the resale $$, and refinery jobs. There’s a reason they are called deals.

justehgirl.bsky.social•6 days ago

If the American people think Russia is going to be better friends than Canada…then so be it. They don’t remember who always came first to your side. We will never forget this.

liekiller.bsky.social•5 days ago

No one is saying that. You had better never get a job where you have to negotiate!! You clearly have no clue!! To negotiate you have to talk to both parties, not sit on your hands like the Libifools do with everything, as was evident at Trumps speech!!

justehgirl.bsky.social•6 days ago

We have gotten the message LOUD AND CLEAR. We are bye bye American on everything we possibly can, and making deals with countries that are trustworthy.

justehgirl.bsky.social•6 days ago

Oh trust me…we get it. You think you don’t the oil (you do), so we are gonna pipeline it elsewhere for shipping. You don’t need our aluminum (you do) but in 90 days that will be part of a deal elsewhere. Potash…puff Gone! Ask your farmers if you need that. They are called trade DEALS for a reason.

justehgirl.bsky.social•6 days ago

There is no trade imbalance. US buys more because US has more people. if you take oil out of the picture, we buy more from the US. We send crude at a discount, the US refines it and sells it back to us and the world. Take that out of the equation and you lose $ big time along with jobs.

liekiller.bsky.social•6 days ago

"The trade imbalance between the U.S. and Canada has been a topic of discussion, particularly highlighted by former President Trump. As of 2024, the U.S. is projected to have a trade deficit with Canada of approximately US$45 billion, which represents a mere -0.2% of U.S. GDP."

deut2314.bsky.social•6 days ago

We get to shift to a regressive tax system which the rich have always wanted.

Tariffs and sales taxes harm the poor much more and this gives rich fuckers boners.

jennifer-turner.bsky.social•6 days ago

Well, the millionaires that bought at the low of the market won. Surprise surprise.

theresistanceat.bsky.social•6 days ago

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clevernickname23.bsky.social•6 days ago

You're going to want to look into Canadian potash and how there really aren't any other current sources that can provide the amount that America needs.

grubert.bsky.social•6 days ago

Thought free trade was supposed to prevent the world from joining together to overwhelm the US?

Also the philosophy that if you make the world a better place, than people get to exist in a better place.

max0206.bsky.social•6 days ago

With tRump it isn’t ever just about tariffs, or trade or anything related to “good governance” it’s always about “getting even” with someone or another country. That’s what sociopathy does to your mind… everyone, everywhere is your enemy, real or perceived.

hentronik.bsky.social•6 days ago

Manufacturing chips in the US is a short term goal, I honestly don't think it will work long term. But who knows.

neptewn.bsky.social•6 days ago

My hope is when Trump walks back his tariffs (claiming it was negotiating tactic all along), Canada and Mexico proceed with their countermeasures to make sure the people who voted for Trump feel it.

mykesmith.bsky.social•7 days ago

Traders win lower entry price points on stocks, but 95% of America will win permanently elevated costs. Once prices go up they almost never come back down.

acctname2024.bsky.social•7 days ago

So if i read that right...the previous trade relationship with Canada was a win for the US and the new situation might provide more low paying jobs

weisenthal.bsky.social•7 days ago

yeah, that's certainly possible

420--joe--420.bsky.social•6 days ago

Nobody wins when war happens. It's just that one side doesn't lose everything and the other side does. Both are losers tho

billrickson.bsky.social•6 days ago

There is no trade war, it’s a front to make sure industry reshores to the right place

There is no fentanyl border crisis, it’s a front to make tariffs

There is no U.S. govt, it’s a front to sell govt debt

There is no American people, it’s a front to legitimize theft

There is no sunshine when

bpaonessa50.bsky.social•6 days ago

These "trade wars"are not the prime focus ,this is a distraction from what they REALLY want to do,and they" isolate us" from everyone.In doing this,they (Trump/Putin)have a better chance to take over.This is "Trump's version" of what Putin did to Ukraine.No tanks ,but still a War.We "are" at war.

ilikenewspapers.bsky.social•6 days ago

I don’t think distraction is the right word, certainly from a Canadian perspective. Based on what Trump is saying there’s a goal of destroying our economy and forcing us to submit to annexation to the US. Not exactly a distraction

dreverettmann.bsky.social•6 days ago

I don't think that's really the goal. They know annexation isn't actually possible. But by starting this and isolating us from our allies, the administration can distance us from other allies, leaving Putin more freedom to act in Europe. The American and Canadian economies are just a sacrifice.

ilikenewspapers.bsky.social•6 days ago

but how do you know this isnt the goal? Thats what he literally keeps saying for one thing

dreverettmann.bsky.social•6 days ago

For a few reasons. For one, adding 40 million people, most of whom don't like Trump, to the voter base would not be a great move. For another, it's just not really on the table without the cooperation of Canadians as a group. If that were really the goal, Trump would be trying to flatter them. 1/

dreverettmann.bsky.social•6 days ago

Compare it to how Trump speaks about Greenland. I think Greenland is just as unrealistic, but I think Trump is still trying to make it happen. He talks about how they really want to be Americans, how great they are, how great it will be when they're part of the US. Not so with Canada. 2/

ilikenewspapers.bsky.social•6 days ago

so because it doesnt seem like there's a rational plan for annexation as opposed to a weird chaotic emotional one?

shaunseaman.bsky.social•6 days ago

If the US annexed Canada and it became a state, they’d get between 42-52 electoral votes. This would make it nearly impossible for a republican to win the Presidency again. So, either trump doesn’t care because he doesn’t plan to have elections in the future, or it’s just a distraction.

mar-e2.bsky.social•6 days ago

Not a reply, a question: Could Trump really be playing with the stock market (which reacts to tariffs) so he can buy low and sell high? Thank you.

eliteprogresscheck.bsky.social•7 days ago

Putin wins, we get nothing but the decimation of our relationship with our most valuable ally and trading partner.

ctrev3than.bsky.social•6 days ago

Hatred is what you win

jasonc99.bsky.social•7 days ago

Didn't we literally have a free trade agreement with Canada? How much better than that could we realistically get?

guybaddis.bsky.social•7 days ago

And Trump negotiated it, signed off on it, and — I'm pretty sure — called it the greatest trade deal ever.

He's shown that he'll never keep any deal, including one he made. So nobody can assume any deal with him has any lasting value. Immediate transactions only. Almost useless.

samuelmarclowe.bsky.social•7 days ago

Agree!

From 2022 (with bad spelling) https://open.substack.com/pub/mostfavourednation/p/most-favoured-nation-can-we-rely?r=j2kl3&utm_medium=ios

weisenthal.bsky.social•7 days ago

Great minds!

edgerrish.bsky.social•7 days ago

I disagree! I should write about it. It's more complicated. The requirement to kiss the ring in autocracies will cause long-term malinvestment. It's almost more pronounced for satisfying local level toadies. Sure it might be fine for a week, month, few years. But the malaise will win.

edgerrish.bsky.social•7 days ago

Also worth noting that other autocracies where poorer and mostly fine. USSR wasn't some kind of universal hellscape. It was just a place with a more subsistence farming than it ought to have had and worse industrial output.

patrickw711.bsky.social•7 days ago

“Probably be fine” is doing a lot of work here

samuelmarclowe.bsky.social•7 days ago

Yes

c0ndu17.bsky.social•6 days ago

Genuine question, because I don’t quite understand. At best wouldn’t America still fail, because it wouldn’t be able to keep up? America alone would need to be compared against the growth of the rest of the world, who are collaborating with each other.

kyleiphd.bsky.social•6 days ago

Joe in addition to the imports you noted via Terminal, the most cited products people have been concerned about on here are Timber, Potash for farmers, and (more provincially) electricity for Midwest / NE States. TBH I'm not sure how significant those all are but wanted to note for the conversation.

kyleiphd.bsky.social•6 days ago

If the concern is strategic vulnerability, I appreciate that while these things could get more expensive in the near future, they could all be made here. Maybe Potash would take longest to ramp up production. But overall, I'm just struck by the absolute stupidity of how unnecessary this all is.

ryanmichael80.bsky.social•7 days ago

In Trump’s mind, power. Unfortunately the non wealthy people will lose greatly.

leukos19.bsky.social•7 days ago

I get the point that the US could be self sufficient and that in some possible alternate reality the US could capture even more of the value creation than it does right now. But there are smarter ways to get there than severing ties with everyone all at once. A lot of capable people will flee

0regrets.bsky.social•7 days ago

While I agree that it might be possible, wouldn't it pose long-term geopolitical security risks? (aka strategic vulnerabilities)

During Japan's isolationist period (kaikin), there was significant internal growth, but they had very little external influence.

lucastosborne.bsky.social•7 days ago

📌

a-witty-twit.bsky.social•7 days ago

🇨🇦🥃🇺🇸

#elbowsup #sorrynotsorry

yiller8.bsky.social•6 days ago

I would bet big on the fact that Trump's threats and takeaways regarding tariffs are making his insiders richer. Everything he says about tariffs or Bitcoin creates wild swings in the markets, and big money is made on these fluctuations.

socalsilencer.bsky.social•6 days ago

Every single governmental movement/law, for as long as I can recall, has been devised to hurt the American People.
Art imitates life, in Zero Day, as the banking system was unnecessarily shut down bc of a recurring cyberattack, causing panic & chaos. The pols certainly protected themselves thruout.

mamamontasaki.bsky.social•7 days ago

With anybody. There’s no messaging about WHY he’s doing this or what he wants. Just big announcements and more expensive stuff.

graphenequeen.bsky.social•6 days ago

Except it's cheaper to import, and you don't actually want to do many of these things. Just like Canada. We have more resources, sure, but different countries specialize in different things. Plus, we currently hold most of your nuclear waste because we're geostable.

um3x.bsky.social•6 days ago

Dude, the US started globalization and now you don’t feel like it anymore? Uh, okay, just let us know before you see another third “cool new” thing you wanna do.

jgerardi.bsky.social•6 days ago

USMACA raised the NA auto content, usa share has been up 25% since 2019. Wouldn't the usa want to take credit before sabotaging it all? That's before all the frozen DOE loans, repeal IRA.

@flaviovolpe.bsky.social

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