This is the best take on the measurement stuff. The breaking of public sentiment from statistical analysis doesn't mean one is wrong, it means something caused those to diverge and we should probably look at that. - ThreadSky

machete.gay • 11 days ago

This is the best take on the measurement stuff.

The breaking of public sentiment from statistical analysis doesn't mean one is wrong, it means something caused those to diverge and we should probably look at that.

Reposted from Michael Hobbes

The phenomenon at issue here is that there are standard ways we measure whether the economy is "good" and they typically correspond with public sentiment. At some point in the last few years that relationship broke down.

It wasn't about whether we should measure the economy differently.

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boomies-n-zoomies.bsky.social•11 days ago

“Vibesession” remains the most succinct explanation. The economy was good, but people felt bad.

Also, I suspect a lot of the reason why people thought the economy was bad is as simple as “news editors wanted Trump to win, so kept saying the economy was bad”.

jorvorskielaynes.bsky.social•11 days ago

I think it's a few things. Housing legitimately is bad, inflation drives people insane even if their wages go up too, and in the middle of an otherwise good economy, tech and media (ie the posting class) went through hell.

jiffwoof.bsky.social•11 days ago

all the local chuds I used to see on FB were claiming that the economy was shit and it was Biden's fault - meanwhile they were vacationing, traveling for kids sports frequently, installing pools, spending time at campgrounds on boats and in campers. People are so dumb. I've since quit FB.

swolecialism.bsky.social•11 days ago

(its social media)

machete.gay•11 days ago

I mean. Yeah.

I'm trying to not just explicitly say people have invested their sense of identity in what the dumbest, angriest stranger on the internet tells them, but, you know.

Yeah.

swolecialism.bsky.social•11 days ago

its cool that being a frothing reactionary is the way to success on social media and im sure this will have no further consequences

pershing48.bsky.social•11 days ago

*Me, watching videos on an iPad with a lifestyle better than 99.99% of all humans who have ever lived*
"Wow, I must live in hell"

dogneri.bsky.social•11 days ago

i'm sympathetic to this explanation but do we have any sense of what would have changed between 2018 and 2024 on social media to have caused the divergence?

swolecialism.bsky.social•11 days ago

machete.gay•11 days ago

I didn't support the TikTok ban for privacy reasons, I supported it because it makes people stupid.

swolecialism.bsky.social•11 days ago

That's right

dogneri.bsky.social•11 days ago

fuck me that'll do it

jorvorskielaynes.bsky.social•11 days ago

Covid made everyone significantly more online and insane

ztiworoh.bsky.social•11 days ago

I think a big part of this is precarity. I am doing well, probably better than I have ever. Solidly upper middle class. But I also know how it would only take a few dominos falling for that to change very quickly. And I think lots of people know that even if they couldn't articulate it.

swolecialism.bsky.social•11 days ago

the precarity isn't new though. the precarity was worse in a lot of times before the vibe/chart divergence

swolecialism.bsky.social•11 days ago

i am, however, sympathetic to the view that a lot of people got a brief taste of serious social safety net/government subsidies during covid, and then Joe Manchin abruptly ripped those away, and it was a big psychic shock

ztiworoh.bsky.social•11 days ago

Right, it's not that this hasn't been the case, but I think we've seen the alternative + lived through so many "once in a lifetime crisis" moments that it's hard to ever feel like you have solid footing.

jacobglowacki.bsky.social•11 days ago

The precarity is the difference between "if I get a cancer diagnosis, I'll be bankrupt" and "If I get a cancer diagnosis, I'm just gonna die"

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