I think we can say that this is the most vital moment for the UK since Brexit. Is Starmer up to it? (And indeed UvdL and other European leaders). So far, despite the scorched earth approach of the Brexiters, the UK has remained in Europe's orbit. This could be the change. A 🧵 - ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

nialloconghaile.bsky.social • 34 days ago

I think we can say that this is the most vital moment for the UK since Brexit. Is Starmer up to it? (And indeed UvdL and other European leaders).

So far, despite the scorched earth approach of the Brexiters, the UK has remained in Europe's orbit. This could be the change.

A 🧵

Comments

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

The core point that Trump's people are making - that the US trade deal is the only came in town - is patently not true.

Europe could offer the UK a level of integration and access that the US never would, and without societal upheaval.

2
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/trump-starmer-trade-deal-britain-b2683668.html

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nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

The macro goal is clear for Washington: pull the UK away from Europe and make its society more like the US, and more a place for US business to sell. An unsinkable US aircraft carrier, taking its standards, just off our coast.

#AirstripOne

Europe must be aware.

3

https://bsky.app/profile/nialloconghaile.bsky.social/post/3lgai4ufwsy2q

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

At the micro level, we can also see what that would be like: destruction of the UK's high European standards.

Grubs in your grub, if you will. Pure shite.

And it would not mean a quid pro quo of access for Britain's great services exporters.

4

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nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

I'm not at all convinced that the UK public want 1.36 kg steaks, but no medicine, health access, safe food, and indeed shorter life expectancy.

As @mikegalsworthy.bsky.social sets out, the model for the UK should be Europe. It's still is "in our column" on that.

5

https://bsky.app/profile/nialloconghaile.bsky.social/post/3lfl2hbjuoc2q

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

(I should add at this point, that I'm not convinced that Trump is serious about a UK trade deal, or that he'd get a balanced one through Congress.

The game seems to be more about bullying, humiliation and distraction. That doesn't mean it won't hurt the UK and Europe).

6

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

Ultimately, this is about the British public. Anyone who really cares about Britons would say that the UK would be better off being like Denmark or Belgium than Alabama or North Dakota.

(even having to say that sounds crazy).

7

holminjone.bsky.social•34 days ago

He might have a concept of a plan.

nazishmunch.bsky.social•34 days ago

Trump works with the divide and rule policy. To which he’s added a complete disregard for law, ethics or trust. He could do one to spite the other and reverse the decision to spite a third party. Power is important to him. As long as he has it, he makes up the rules and everyone complies.

alexjw.bsky.social•34 days ago

The only country that would benefit from lower regulatory standards would be US industry and farming with its much bigger economy of scales…

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

It's about profit, and about control, and indeed about a philosophy on how the world should be. The US Republicans are dangerous.

tintenfische.bsky.social•34 days ago

You're still a transatlantacist? America doesn't give a toss about Europe. It hasn't for years. Biden was an anomaly, he cared about Europe in a way no one since Bush 2 has, Bush 1 if you ignore Clinton's drive for peace in NI Trump is simply a continuation of US military and philosophical withdrawl

tintenfische.bsky.social•34 days ago

Partly this is a result of the EUs creation. The EU became an alternative to US economic and moral supremacy. It offers a different way of living which is antithetical to the US system. The result is the increasingly hostile attitude towards Europe.

tintenfische.bsky.social•34 days ago

Anyway, the goal of pulling the UK isn't to sell stuff to the UK. It's to destabilise Europe. It's American Putinism.

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

Very much so.

mulvihill.bsky.social•34 days ago

Yup, first brick knocked out of a wall.

stevea53.bsky.social•34 days ago

Yes but, that's no change over the whole of my lifetime!

adriantippetts.bsky.social•34 days ago

A US trade deal will be a faustian pact: the new administration will inevitably make threats if the UK introduces legislation it doesn't like e.g. quality standards, internet safety, foreign political donations etc. All of Europe should heed Zelenskyy's warning at the WEF - put its defence first.

adriantippetts.bsky.social•34 days ago

(I fear US administration will seek to pick on EU member states individually - like Russia will seek to act against NATO members on an individual basis, to test resolve. We've seen Musk do this to UK, Germany and Romania already. European unity, solidarity crucial)

tmeilveis.bsky.social•34 days ago

(3/3) That trade surplus in 2023 was £72bn. As Peter Hitchins has repeatedly said, US administrations have solely seen the so-called 🇺🇸-🇬🇧 special relationship as a means to advance America's interests. I don't see the Trump one as an exception especially how sycophantic & desperate Brits have become.

sallybourliakas.bsky.social•34 days ago

If the Brits you see round Trump in the US are:

Johnson
Truss
Badenoch
&
Farage

I can see where you might think that.

Some of us however want to Rejoin the EU:

ASAP!

The USA is a beautiful place but I wouldn’t want to live there

&
trading with our nearest trade block makes much more sense.

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tmeilveis.bsky.social•34 days ago

Good for you! But it's going to be a very long road for the UK to join the EU. Just getting candidate status isn't guaranteed; it will be subject to the opinion of the European Commission & the unanimous decision of the European Council. You'll be at the back of the queue, behind Albania & Moldova.

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sallybourliakas.bsky.social•34 days ago

They already said they want us back and apply anytime https://www.euronews.com/2019/12/26/britain-is-always-welcome-to-come-back-eu-official-writes

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tmeilveis.bsky.social•34 days ago

(2/3) Trump's administration are perfectly aware of the UK's weak negotiating power after their disastrous FTAs with Oz & NZ. Trump will happily exploit that and play Starmer & Farage off against each other to ensure that FTA or not, the UK's huge trade surplus with the US is greatly diminished.

tmeilveis.bsky.social•34 days ago

(1/3) Not content with destroying UK-EU relations, amazingly Brexiters seem hellbent on wrecking the UK's very valuable trading relationship with the US too. Trump has made it clear from his book 'The Art of the Deal' that he has no hesitation in exploiting those with no leverage in business deals.

alexjw.bsky.social•34 days ago

Every argument about bloody sovereignty the brexiteers made about the Single Market would apply to a US trade deal only most of the concessions would not be in the interests of the people or many of own businesses….

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

You could never accuse the Brexiters of logical consistency.

stephaniemac.bsky.social•34 days ago

Difference being they’d happily take a Guam or Puerto Rico type relationship with the US over being an equal member of the EU

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

Brexitism in a nutshell.

You must be the coloniser or colonised. No other relationship is imaginable.

Hat tip, @fotoole.bsky.social

chimpzilla.bsky.social•34 days ago

it's true. The caveat I will add to that though, is that the constituent parts of the UK are not (outside of England). Scotland, NI and Wales are not going to put up with that. I can't imagine London being too happy either being a multicultural city. I could easily see the UK come apart.

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

Playing the devil's advocate, don't Scotland and Wales already put up with that?

chimpzilla.bsky.social•34 days ago

The use of Brexit to centralize power in Westminster has already reignited nationalism in the constituent parts. This came despite the SNP imploding + issues with devolved politics in Cardiff. Wales, NI and Scotland are also more reliant on the EU for farming, which will be hit hardest by a US deal

alexjw.bsky.social•34 days ago

I think the other nations probably have more in common with some of the regions than the regions have with the rest of England!

sallybourliakas.bsky.social•34 days ago

https://www.euronews.com/2019/12/26/britain-is-always-welcome-to-come-back-eu-official-writes

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felixbyrne.bsky.social•34 days ago

And in so doing turn the UK into another Puerto Rico or Guam... Boy, how the mighty have fallen....

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

That's sad though. Nobody who wants the best for the UK or Europe wants to see that.

o-loughl.in•34 days ago

The question I would ask, what do the people of the uk want. Every survey says Europe, if labour were to pivot to the us, what would this do to the Labour Party going forward.

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

Great question. I'm not psephologist, but I did read that only three constituencies have a Brexit majority these days.

If Labour won't make this choice, then the voters need to make the choice for them by voting for someone else.

travistagr.bsky.social•34 days ago

We would need to abolish FPTP first. That way people will vote for what they want, rather than against what they don’t.

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

It is to be hoped for, definitely.

o-loughl.in•34 days ago

Problem with even that argument. If both Tory and Labour are actively destructive. What difference does it make? The detail, think of trump. Memories fail, the Tory Brexit will be less bad than the Labour Brexit.

travistagr.bsky.social•34 days ago

The Lib Dems and Greens are both pro-EU membership.

Perhaps the Tories and Labour might rethink their approach if our voting system were more nuanced.

stuartbudd.bsky.social•34 days ago

None of the politicians have asked the public if they would prefer the US or EU and the public is very confused and doesn't understand.

Labour support is mostly pro EU but also 50:50 authoritarian / liberal.

Expect this to kill Labour if they choose the US with up to 50% going to Greens / LibDems.

austinallegro.bsky.social•34 days ago

Including me (currently a Lab member)

radiohead319.bsky.social•34 days ago

Personally, that would be akin the Lib Dems supporting increasing student tuition fees to £9k. Absolute red line which would rule them out from my voting considerations.

o-loughl.in•34 days ago

Whilst I can forgive the Lib Dem’s on tuition fees, minor partner in coalition. Labour has no get out of what ever they choose. There majority is such that they can do as they please

radiohead319.bsky.social•34 days ago

If we became State 51 anchored off Europe it would be so damaging for generations. Many like me would never forgive them.

davidmccann14.bsky.social•34 days ago

At the very least it would require a legally binding referendum. Not that anything ever went wrong with that 😬

radiohead319.bsky.social•34 days ago

I probably should have said "de facto" State 51. A far reaching UD trade deal might strongly decouple us from the EU and make us even more dependent on the US.

neil-lewis.bsky.social•34 days ago

Firstly, von der Leyen said y'day that the EU will be a trade partner for Turnip's victims - which might include the UK (if UK can abide by EU's laws and rules)?

Secondly, the EU Single Energy Market proposal is out in Feb - will the UK play a part or be invited?

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

It would be good to bring the UK inside the tent, but they insist on having their own carbon border, so it isn't feasible at the moment.

neil-lewis.bsky.social•34 days ago

I can't believe the UK has a 'Carbon Border' - that's just weird for a small island and middle sized economy.

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

They problem, again, is exceptionalism, believing that the UK could not and should not have the same system that all its neighbours have agreed to.

neil-lewis.bsky.social•34 days ago

But it's like having a 'pixel border' 🤦‍♀️

chimpzilla.bsky.social•34 days ago

Starmer's administration is in real trouble. That makes them both desperate for a US deal irrespective of the consequences but it also means that his political support is being eroded day by by day.

mermaidspursej.bsky.social•34 days ago

After the Nazi salute there's just no way. Musk and Trump don't understand, but Farage does.

If Starmer deals with these people he will certainly lose the next election. There may even be trouble on the streets.

offcomer.bsky.social•34 days ago

This is naive. The political obstacles in the way of returning to the EU and single
Market are monumental: win a referendum, overcome party split, explain u turn to electorate, neutralise opposition, lose legislative time, risk non re election

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

I said nothing about the single market in my thread.

But how and ever, a referendum is a shoo-in, and once the case has been made and won, watch politics realign.

As for "losing legislative time", seriously, what else are they doing?

offcomer.bsky.social•34 days ago

Bit disingenuous. You cannot discuss Brexit without it at least being implied, like Hamlet’s ghost.

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

Okay, fair enough. I trust the rest of my answer covers that.

mrkeithtaylor.bsky.social•34 days ago

A valuable contribution from the ‘we shouldn’t try to do things that are hard’ lobby.

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

Ha!

offcomer.bsky.social•34 days ago

I couldn’t help bursting out laughing at your post. Sorry.

msbluewednesday.bsky.social•34 days ago

What is your solution then?
Geographically we are only 26 miles from the rest of our own continent. There’s even a tunnel. It’s a no brainer to try to undo as much as we can of the known disasters of Brexit.
Whatever Trump may give with one hand he’ll take far more with the other.

bmcg0305.bsky.social•34 days ago

If there is a game changer it will be if tariffs imposed by the US on the UK. I'm not holding my breath though!

vulcan800.bsky.social•34 days ago

Well right now the Tories are licking themselves delirious about Trump so cross fingers

callicramed.bsky.social•34 days ago

Starmer appears not to be up to it, as he and Rachel Reeves conjure up a cakeist approach to the UK’s future, where we can simultaneously get what we want from Trump and the EU, and on top of that become a world leader in AI.

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

There is an air of late-night high conversation off all that.

callicramed.bsky.social•34 days ago

It’s called Chablis. And it’s French.

bletherwatch.bsky.social•34 days ago

Yup. He won Twat of the Year 2024 on this podcast, and is already a contender for the 2025 crown https://open.spotify.com/episode/3ofJTTnq1LYvZOiGILyaeu?si=blurdoO2StOzVlpXUdR4UQ

urzwoo.bsky.social•34 days ago

The EU is in a strong negotiating position against the US (see USB-C/Apple as an example).

The UK cannot negotiate alone against the US and will be totally taken advantage of.

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

We would be better off together. But that means the UK canning the exceptionalism and accepting the rules like others.

jimmyhird5.bsky.social•34 days ago

Just as it's not our EU's business to fix their self imposed Brexit balls up, it's also not our EU's business or affair to rescue Dear old Blighty in any way shape or form should Trump decide to screw them over.

I'd should think most EU citizens believe same 🤷🏻‍♂️..

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

we have to look after europe's interests

jimmyhird5.bsky.social•34 days ago

Absolutely.
For me, the way it is, is, look after Europe
(the collective, all of us etc)
and Europe will look after you.
We all mightn't get what we want all the time, but that's life, where nothing's perfect.
You go with the flow.
Nothing has ever been so good for Europe.
It's the only game in town

francevisafree.bsky.social•33 days ago

I think most informed and sensible people would take a pragmatic stance and recognise that what happens next door impacts upon you. Nothing to be gained by sustaining division.

jimmyhird5.bsky.social•33 days ago

Britain's Brexit problems are just that.. Britain's !..

Yours to handle, yours to deal with and yours to rectify.

Stop trying to share them..

francevisafree.bsky.social•33 days ago

If America sneezes Europe catches a cold is a well known saying . Your neighbours problems are very much your problems!

jimmyhird5.bsky.social•33 days ago

Thanks for that economic clarity.
I'll pass that on to the powers that be in Strasbourg..😉

francevisafree.bsky.social•33 days ago

No need they will already know !

andrewhesselden.bsky.social•33 days ago

Agree

francevisafree.bsky.social•33 days ago

Far too simple. A problem that impacts upon others becomes there problem too.

francevisafree.bsky.social•33 days ago

But clearly the UK has to take responsibility for its actions. Contrary to what others say that is something I and others in the Uk have always accepted. Sadly our views are consistently misrepresented and taken out of context.

andrewhesselden.bsky.social•33 days ago

All the time.

Let me guess. Is this nialloconghaile up to his usual?

andrewhesselden.bsky.social•32 days ago

Brexit is a problem to people elsewhere in the continent too.

jimmyhird5.bsky.social•32 days ago

As in ?...

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•32 days ago

Thréad for you, Jack 👇

https://bsky.app/profile/nialloconghaile.bsky.social/post/3lfyw3oa3y72q

andrewhesselden.bsky.social•32 days ago

I’m sure it causes inconvenience all over Europe. In Northern Ireland, in Ireland, in France, in Spain. And more. Think about all the Europeans who can’t use ID cards to travel to the UK. All the businesses that have extra shipping admin. All the people who have to pay 30-40% more for goods.

andrewhesselden.bsky.social•33 days ago

No one says it is Jack.

brainburnnow.bsky.social•18 days ago

If Starmer goes ahead with something like that, I'll be there to assist the French in bricking up the chunnel entrance.

I've always said that the worst imaginable outcome of Brexit would be a UK-US trade deal, b/c of how one-sided it's bound to be even w/o Trump being involved in it.

doctor-dice.bsky.social•34 days ago

Happy to see the back of MacD, BK, KFC, S/bucks, Tesla and whatever else shite products the US has forced upon us. We don't buy their ugly boxy poor quality cars or any other sub standard products or poisonous foodstuffs in general. Would a breakdown in relationship with the US be such a bad thing?

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

The US has provided many good things over the decades. It was the main supporter and progenitor of the rules-based trading system that has so benefited Europe and the UK, for example, and there's plenty of cultural and industrial output that's world class.

We should all hope that the US comes back

doctor-dice.bsky.social•34 days ago

We should also hand them back their Trident nukes and rebuild our own deterrent.

thecount2000.bsky.social•34 days ago

Don't hand them back until we have our own deterrent.

thefatfryer.bsky.social•34 days ago

Why is the complete logic that our closest trading partners are actually 21 miles away not 3000 miles. Regardless of Trump.

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

(Even closer if you count Ireland).

yes, it's a nonsense. Especially given the time we are living in.

Thread 👇

https://bsky.app/profile/nialloconghaile.bsky.social/post/3lfwjeiwzgk2o

radiohead319.bsky.social•34 days ago

This. We've seen the possibility/likelihood of it emerging for a year or more, and the certainty of it since the US election.

Now a fork in the road. Closer integration to US or EU in the name of "growth".

EU by a country mile (or km) for me!

radiohead319.bsky.social•34 days ago

Depressingly we've lost so much time since the US election.

We could have been using that time to build a much stronger negotiating position against Trump's bullying. But instead there is a risk we are a rabbit in the headlights.

So predictable too!

https://bsky.app/profile/radiohead319.bsky.social/post/3labdcmqf2r2b

radiohead319.bsky.social•34 days ago

A bit more embarrassing my lack of knowledge of the number of US states though!

nialloconghaile.bsky.social•34 days ago

52 after the 50 and Greenland.