3rdlens.bsky.social
Driving player development through innovation. We make analytics accessible to local programs
Soccer Analytics | Consultant | Match analysis packages | Opposition Analysis | Recruitment
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www.3rdlens.co
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Getting Started
Active Commenter
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Brilliant, thank you!
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Love your work!
Are MLS results further off from xG than other leagues?
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How is the quote not “drip, drip onto my luxuriant hair” 😂
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Football and Chess
The Mountain Shadow
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Sadly, not gonna make it this week. Too much work again. 😭
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For the second week running, I had half the thread written then fell asleep. Been too much work lately but should have more time in the next few weeks. Sorry to disappoint.
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Sorry bro couldn’t get it done. Too much work.
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So sorry. Couldn’t make it happen. 70 hr work week. 😓
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Gonna be tight bro. Hoping to be done tomorrow.
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👍
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Eek might come too soon for me. 😭
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Could get an attacking return but wouldn’t trust for a clean sheet.
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Sarr good pick. Against poor competition anyone could explode.
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It’s a pleasure. ☺️
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Thanks for reading!
I appreciate the time you spend engaging with my thoughts on the game.
If you got something out of this, I’d love to hear your thoughts -what stood out, what you agree/disagree with, or anything else on your mind.
Enjoy the matches and see you in 31!
#EPLMatchups #staysharp🪓
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🔬 Best of GW30 🧐
📊 A data-driven snapshot of the standout teams from the week.
CRY: Top NetxG, top goal predictor, unsupported by zonals.
LIV: Flank play avoiding EVE CMs.
MCI: 2nd tier and unsupported by zonals.
BOU: Top for zonals and 2nd tier elsewhere.
NEW & CHE: Zonals - central & left.
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CHELSEA 🆚 SPURS
📊 NETxG: CHE 1.71 | TOT 1.13
- CHE best zonal for Palmer exploiting central area (4.5).
- TOT to resort to counterattacks as CHE CMs dominate midfield.
- TOT 76% chance 0-1 goal, less than 8 chances predicted, 3/9 BC scored in last 6 away.
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LIVERPOOL 🆚 EVERTON
📊 NETxG: LIV 1.81 | EVE 0.89
- Expect EVE midfield to blow up any creativity in that zone, highlighting the importance of the flanks.
- Not buying LIV 48% chance of a cleansheet as indicated by the goal predictor. EVE rising.
- LIV 44% chance of multiple goals.
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SOUTHAMPTON 🆚 CRYSTAL PALACE
📊 NETxG: SOU 0.54 | CRY 2.22
- CRY gameweek-high NETxG (2.22), SOU gameweek-low NetxG (0.54).
- CRY 53% chance of multiple goals - best of GW30.
- Muñoz to profit from both defensive and attacking output.
- Expecting Mateta to produce making his return to league play.
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NEWCASTLE 🆚 BRENTFORD
📊 NETxG: NEW 1.54 | BRE 1.36
- NEW central zone showing how CMs create for Isak.
- Parity in the data in a game seemingly very difficult to predict. NEW slight edge in the data, but variance, game state and BRE preventive tactics will dictate over stats.
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MAN CITY 🆚 LEICESTER CITY
📊 NETxG: MCI 2.04 | LEI 0.90
- MCI w/ 2nd best NETxG (2.04) & 48% chances 2+ goals.
- MCI 47% chance clean sheet, but hard to trust.
- MCI balanced attack will focus in situational mismatches instead of designed plays into zone.
- Marmoush to be productive as focal point.
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BRIGHTON 🆚 ASTON VILLA
📊 NETxG: BHA 1.57 | AVL 0.76
- BHA 2x the NETxG of AVL.
- AVL poor form showing w/ 46% chance of 0 goals, & only 16% chance of multiple goals.
- Zonals less of a factor in this one, but Pedro to profit from movement between the lines.
- Mitoma could feast against big Disasi.
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BOURNEMOUTH 🆚 IPSWICH TOWN
📊 NETxG: BOU 1.61 | IPS 1.00
- BOU center (4.3) highlights potential for Kluivert creating for Evanilson.
- IPS 75% chance of 0 or 1 goal, BOU 47% chance 2+ goals
- O'Shea &Davis lost a total of 27 possessions against NFO. Semenyo to profit from IPS losses of possession.
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NOTTINGHAM FOREST 🆚 MANCHESTER UTD
📊 NETxG: NFO 1.57 | MUN 0.98
- NFO to capitalize in transition as MUN struggle to implement patterns of play - Elanga & Hudson-Odoi to feature.
- MUN better zonals, but they have only generated 0.76 xG/90 over their last 6 away games.
- NFO 40% chance cleansheet.
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WEST HAM 🆚 WOLVES
📊 NETxG: WHU 1.16 | WOL 1.12
- Data points at a lackluster match with two teams wanting to avoid dropping points.
- WOL central zone creativity to offer opportunities for wide runners behind WHU wingbacks.
- Limited goal potential - 0-1 goals: WHU 62%, WOL 67%.
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ARSENAL 🆚 FULHAM
📊 NETxG: ARS 1.53 | FUL 1.28
- FUL concedes just under 2 big chances (BC)/90 away and ARS creates 2 BC home.
- FUL conceded only 8 goals in last 6 away.
- ARS central zone points to Ødegaard again, but the tactics align better for flank players exploiting space behind FUL FBs.
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Please don’t press me.
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Busy day but working on it! Will post tomorrow morning at the latest!
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Gonna be tight but I’ll try! 🤞
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Seems the creativity came from Bellegarde rather than Munetsi so hopefully encouraging signs on the call. 🤞
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Making people think is the whole point of the threads. 🙏
Love those moves.
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On fh I might have Sa. Not sure one of the mods would make it.
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Yeah I think so.
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Snooks thank you! I miss it too, tbh, but I’m really enjoying real life applications. ☺️
Killing it this season, wow! Keep doing whatever you’re doing this season! 🔥
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Hmm I think Bruno might edge it with the set pieces.
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Not really sure bro. 😂
Ait-Nouri, Kluivert, Aina, Milenkovic, Gibbs-White, Timber/Calafiori, Mbeumo would all
Be considerations.
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Ait-Nouri maybe
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Much appreciated Zizou. 🙏
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Thanks so much Sebastian.
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Thank you for spending your time here!
Your time is valuable, & the fact that you've dedicated some of it here means a lot.
Looking forward to seeing your thoughts in the comments if you feel like sharing!
Enjoy the matches, & see you next week with more insights!
⚽📊 #EPLMatchups #staysharp🪓
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📊 Best of GW29 🧐
A data-driven snapshot of the standout teams from the week.
MAN CITY: Marmoush movement vs big CBs.
WOLVES: Inside forward combinations with wing-backs.
FOREST: Gibbs-White key to central zonal matchup.
BOURNEMOUTH: Best zonal - Kluivert creates & contributing perimeter finishing.
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LEICESTER CITY 🆚 MAN UTD
📊 NETxG: LEI 0.75 | MUN 1.54
- Metrics agree on low score.
- LEI have scored 0 goals from 5.05 xG in their last 6 home games.
- MUN have scored the 2nd fewest big chances in the last 6 away games (3).
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FULHAM 🆚 SPURS
📊 NETxG: FUL 1.07 | TOT 1.58
- Robinson to profit from FUL L side zonal (3.6).
- Spurs' most goals scored last 6 away (14).
- Tactical clash: FUL width creating for ctr 🆚 Spurs building through crowded half-spaces on the small field.
- Metrics: Spurs, Goal predictor: =, Zonals: FUL.