chase.hulderman.me
Husband, father, and forever curious. Follower of urbanists, policy wonks, economists, military/foreign policy experts, and technologists.
Work in technology with a background in biomedical research.
220 posts
64 followers
272 following
Regular Contributor
Active Commenter
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Couldn't you QE the yields down by increasing demand? Not saying it's a good policy...
Is that what they're thinking?
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Seems like this is a glut of more advanced degrees. The denominator being associates degree individuals only allows you to say people who go to college are going for longer than 2 years more recently.
Or did I this wrong?
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It might be true nationally, but is it true in specific local markets?
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Big crypto is the most obvious. It's purest form in meme coins who exist to "rug pull".
The metaverse has led to nothing of value besides wasted billions.
Gen AI is a transformative tech. But legions are fawning over it blindly - lest they be left behind.
Careful, thoughtful adoption is key
2/2
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If you can think of a way to spin it as a win, sure. But I'm sure he didn't love Japan threatening to use Treasuries
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If we reassess the risks and harms knowing what we know now... I get it. What little protection we got for kids wasn't worth the generational trauma and the impacts on learning, SE development, etc.
But we didn't know that. COVID-19 and the lockdowns broke some of our ability to think and reason...
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What? For those of us with a background in biomedical research, what we knew what extremely murky in Mar/Apr of 2020.
Here's a WHO publication that was then revised with more information discovered in July '20.
The goal was to reduce imminent harm to the most vulnerable - kids.
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Inserting myself in your conversation, but I think George's take aligns with this chart more...
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Yeah, but is someone going to tell him that materialism drives the US economy?
Buying 10 dolls when you only need 2 is kind of our thing.
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It looks like "inventories" was doing a lot of heavy lifting in Q1 which is what we saw in lots of hard data indicators.
If there isn't much change to tariffs until at/after the 90 days (so end of Q2), am I wrong in thinking Q2 GDP is going to be at the bottom of a well?
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Can someone explain to me why the S&P500 is only down 6% YTD with a projected GDP loss of nearly 3%?
It's still up 6% YoY which makes no sense to me.
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I hope you're right. But what you're saying wasn't reflected in the election results in November.
Even the latest polling shows the greatest movement in Gen-Z women. Men of all classes and generations aren't moving much.
Non-white voters put the economy at the top or near the top of their ballot.
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Outside of the high-info, establishment bubbles. Outside of the educated, wealthy cities:
People arent afraid for the institutions. They are worried about their job, housing, car payment, child care etc
The Dem message IS fractured. What's their policy plan?
They cant chase every squirrel (2/2)
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Respectfully, I like what Rep. Moskowitz says about this on RM
Americans don't know their own govt to know what's a norm too far. They don't understand that due process is under threat
It's really hard to educate a voter and then get them to care
Pure intuitive emotion is much more powerful (1/2)
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But also tariffs like this are taxes, ultimately on consumption. Those under 200k spend a much larger % of their income.
Something like 30% of those taxpayers don't pay income tax.
Even current tariff rates with a complete income tax cut would raise their taxes.
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DAX is up 22% in the last year. Euro is up 6% on the dollar. That's a pretty steep discount.
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It's lies all the way down. Elon has been doing this for years.
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That second part is huge:
* Wacky trade "policy" changes
* Supply chains for critical minerals and parts are majorly constrained
* Tesla now has negative brand sentiment and value. A major headwind in the BEV space.
I know the stock is a meme, but somewhere in there is a real company at the brink
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No, but seriously. Did he stop learning things in the 80s? It'd explain so much.
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Idiotic takes by the news media. Fed data, sentiment surveys, etc all indicate consumers are surging spending to get ahead of tariffs.
That's not strength. That's weakness.
It's a negative indicator
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Similar to how the Heritage Foundation talks about how enabling access to education keeps [women] from their duty... Having kids.
The pretzels they twist themselves into to sound gender neutral would be funny if it wasn't so dangerous...
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Many who voted for Trump did so because they believe in democracy.
They think the weaponization of justice was done against Trump. The corruption was Biden and Burismam. The authoritarianism was the CDC and Fauci.
I'm not sure that's an indictment on democracy. We're inhabiting diff realities.
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Also Biotin, Folic Acid, many others...
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It's not a good truck (see W. Diesel). It's been plauged with quality issues. The stainless steel sheets are literally glued on and the frame is cast aluminum.
There is a very tiny sliver of man-child that this appeals to and also can afford to drive it.
Also A1 MAGA. Them, too, I guess.
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Given how little he's aware of when it's presented to him, does he even know this exemption exists?
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Looks like Stephen Miller is saying that cellphones and tvs are still at 20% (over the 145%). Is that in the calculations?
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I'm pretty sure this is a fake tweet. The feed that @fintwitter.bsky.social is using is on a crypto promoting binge.
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No. It's a hacked account. They're advertising for crypto.
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Authenticity. A lot of people like what AOC has to say because she's authentic even if they don't agree with her. It's also Trump's appeal. They like him because they think he's authentic.
But it's also elitism. They hate it when ppl tell them how to think, what to say, and whats in their interest.
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Also love CLT, but too hot in the summer. It's cooler by the lake.
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Recently spent a bit of time in W Europe.
Love where we live, but access to fresh food; Walkable streets; Clean, fast public transit; Bike culture; good schools, and safe options for kids.
I imagine if we lived there things like health care, etc.
Americans think in $ not in actual QOL.
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The 2008 crisis was man-made but was systemic and not nearly so intentional. A lot of the near-term pain signals in the markets aren't just financial, they're loss in confidence in bulwarks like
intl. trade, the dollar, treasuries, and a rules based order.
Can/Eur boycotts arent their gov policies
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They're not going into affect right away, but they're not a tease.
Interesting to see how his team is trying to manipulate him. Lutnick is long bonds and blinked.
He couldn't have Trump distracted by EU retaliation.
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Shrodingers Court -- if they hold the admin in contempt then we'd have a constitutional crisis when the executive refuses to comply.
But if they find procedural reasons and kick the can down the road and stall until it's appealed etc...
Then they still have power. And we're not in a crisis
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Why would you stick this on the media?
High information voters -- that is, people who read/listen/watch anything resembling journalism already knew.
Low info voters don't like academic, urban, beltway elites and them saying "3rd grade comprehension" makes them love him more.
Death of expertise.
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How are these tables organized? Sort by trade volume? It's not alphabetical, [Trade Deficit %], or US Reciprocal tariff rate
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Also this
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I think you have this the wrong way around. As much as Trump loves tariffs, a lot of this is straight out of Miller's noggin.
He's been spewing off the wall stuff... Since high school.
www.surfsantamonica.com/ssm_site/the...
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Have we?
Tariffs not seen since the 19th century; during a time of economic strength; in a highly integrated, globalized economy
I can't see a snap, emergency 100 basis point cut in two days... That would signal more concern rather than stabilize anything.
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He's still commenting...
* happy with employment
* happy with inflation
* Thinks tarrifs might do inflation, but no indication to change policy.
* Likes the current position given uncertainty of soft data and policy flux
* Too much uncertainty in trade barriers currently to understand effects