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cost-of-carbon.bsky.social
Climate Risk Specialist, Ortec Finance | Model, write, campaign about the impacts of extreme weather | Fellow, Institution of Chemical Engineers | Fusion | Cryogenics | Co-Editor Future of Helium as a Natural Resource | Lake District, UK | views are my own
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We have taken our Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) into operations today to run side by side with our physics-based weather forecasts. The #AIFS outperforms traditional models for many measures, at a fraction of energy use. ➡️ www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med... #AI #MachineLearning

Using data through Feb. 23, 2025 and assuming warming is accelerating, the planet is now set to cross the 1.5°C line in mid-2026.

Cutting the UK's #overseasaid budget from 0.5% GDP to 0.3% is not what is needed - Sky News lnkd.in/eexizRTd Worsening #extremeweather means UK's share should now be 0.7% (the pre-Covid goal). Unless warming is limited to 2°C, the % of GDP needed increases. Nature Comment shows why lnkd.in/ewxFbKA5

This is a really good job for someone who might be a bit disenthraled with academia. A job that will really make a difference - we need a difference. climatelitigationnetwork.org/recruitment/

The UK produces 60% of its own food, 114% of its lamb and mutton, but only 16% of its fruit. There's huge scope to increase the amount of fruit and veg that we produce –– and in a way which is very land efficient, @tommlancaster.bsky.social tells @alexisconran.bsky.social. @eciu.net

Whiplash #hydroclimate #volatility is seen in acute physical risk / extreme weather modelling. Emerging in the 1980s, it is evident in oscillations: periods of excess rainfall HYD flooding, plant growth followed by periods of drought CLIM boosted wildfires www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/cl...

A factor behind the Los Angeles #firestorms: "Hydroclimate volatility refers to sudden, large and/or frequent transitions between very dry and very wet conditions. This review examines how #hydroclimate #volatility is anticipated to evolve with anthropogenic warming" www.nature.com/articles/s43...

What does climate change have to do with wildfires? Our latest research finds that the risk of wildfires is growing due to higher temperatures and more frequent and intense droughts linked to climate change. Explore the data: lancetcountdown.org/explore-our-...

Another shocking extreme weather disaster in the US. First responders can do little to contain these huge fire events until the wind drops, and water reserves in LA are running low...

As the UK freezes, it's challenging for #NHS and the #nationalgrid. My observations: Cobble stones are less slippy than tarmac. Gas may not be as sooty as coal but, when the wind drops, power prices surge. Frozen-over solar was just a blip today grid.iamkate.com We need long term #energystorage.

The plant #1trilliontrees by 2030 idea is not about sucking CO2 out of the atmosphere. Instead, " www.1t.org is part of the World Economic Forum’s efforts to accelerate nature-based solutions and was set up to support the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration" www.climateinteractive.org/blog/trillio...

"Climate change intensified 26 of the 29 extreme weather events studied by #WWA and had a stronger influence than #ElNiño on many high-impact weather events that were so damaging to lives, livelihoods and ecosystems." says Celeste Saulo, Sec-Gen, World Met. Org. www.worldweatherattribution.org

PhD opportunity at Bristol: "Machine Learning for Understanding Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate". Please share with potential applicants. Deadline is Jan 31 12:00. www.bristol.ac.uk/geography/co... www.bristol.ac.uk/media-librar...

Twenty years ago, the Boxing Day #Tsunami swept across the Indian Ocean. In the aftermath, population trends changed in the severely hit coastal cities. For some, moving to an inland refuge may have been an option; for others it was too far, or there was no refuge #WUP www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

It's better to avoid emissions, either by using non-polluting energy sources (best) / using carbon capture and storage (2nd best). This article doesn't mention the huge amount of energy needed to recover CO2 from the atmosphere! Where's that power going to come from? www.nytimes.com/2024/12/22/c...

“We are now in an era of [climate] consequences. We are no longer talking about polar bears or green jobs. We are talking about a true economic punch in the face for regular Americans, with a prospect of a massive economic collapse in potentially very near future."

Great summary of why the world warmed up faster than expected. Is this a jump followed by a reversion to trend, or is it an emerging divergence from trend? By 2030, I estimate this will increase weather disaster losses by >US$30bn. We have already started to do #geoengineering intentionally or not.

The rise of AI datacenters risks driving rapid emissions growth if not powered by clean energy. In a new report, we (Scale Microgrids, Paces, and Stripe) provide a detailed analysis of one promising solution: off-grid solar and storage. www.offgridai.us/

An important new study, out today, uses the latest physical & social science -- also meta-review machine-learning something something -- to reassess the social cost of carbon. TL;DR: it's $280/ton, way higher than EPA's $190. www.ucdavis.edu/climate/news...

In small island states, only a small part of the flood risk comes from the sea. 19.5% of the population – about 8.5 million people – are exposed to once-in-100-year floods in the current situation, of which 81% is due to inland flooding. www.climatechangepost.com/news/in-smal...

COMING SOON | In 2023, the UK relied on fossil fuels for nearly 40% of its power⚡ 🗓️Tomorrow, we present the UK’s generation trends in 2024 and see how renewables fare against fossil fuels Until then, here’s our analysis of the UK’s coal phase-out: ember-energy.org/lat...

Convincing and clear about what we need to do about climate an the energy transition in the UK

The Seven Stages of climate denial: 1. It's not real 2. It's not us 3. It's not that bad 4. We have time 5. It's too expensive to fix 6. Here's a fake solution 7. It's too late: you should have warned us earlier Trolls use all of these stages to deny reality of #climatechange on Ex-Twitter 🤣

Why has there been a global temperature 'blip' since May 2023? There was not a major El Nino event but the unexpected temperatures have boosted physical risk events such as Hurricane Helene and wildfires... Here may be part of the explanation - published yesterday www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

In most places in the world, power from new renewables is now cheaper than power from new fossil fuels. Why did renewables become so cheap so fast? The answer: learning curves.

South Africa’s high court has upheld a legal challenge to the government’s plans to develop 1,500MW of new coal-fired power, says #Bloomberg Risks to health & planet of #coal are well known www.climatechangenews.com/2015/06/23/s... Despite that, why is per capita use in #China & #India increasing?

Elegant chart on electric truck sales from BloombergNEF: Key points: • Global electric truck sales on track to set record in 2024 • Subsidies lifted China sales; CO2 rules to drive EU, US uptake NB: BNEF is speaking specifically of sales of medium- and heavy-duty zero-emission trucks

A bit surprised that my fab new Dell 34" curved monitor has a 'G' energy rating. Have the standards become tighter, or are production innovations slipping? On the face of it, a power consumption of 32W for a big screen seems OK to me... www.energylabel.org.uk/the-new-labe...

Under the political headlines, viewed from the perspective of #cities the world looks very different - they have more in common = growth, housing, health, transport, climate, poverty, education, food and diet, ageing, culture, heritage, energy, governance, security, pollution... did I miss anything?

An interesting discussion about an important topic - what has caused the recent surge in global warming and intense, #extremeweather events? I have added some ideas to the comments...

We now see, clearly, the impacts of extreme heat & #extremeweather on food prices. This is at 1.5°C of warming. Depending on income, the impacts range from inconvenience to hunger. Water scarcity is an amplifier. It's time to reinstate en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qullqa www.theguardian.com/business/202...

@carbonbrief.org's article on why plastics matter for climate change is really good! Plastic production accounts for 5% of global emissions - 3 times more than aviation - so even if you hate clean oceans it really matters. Here's the stuff I learnt:

Der Nordwesten von 🇪🇺 & 🇩🇪 ist ein Hotspot der Zunahme extremer Hitze. Die Temperatur der 1% heißesten Tage des Jahres nimmt dort doppelt so schnell zu wie die von sonstigen Sommertagen. Grund sind wohl Veränderungen im #Jetstream infolge der #Erderwärmung. Studie: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

You are seeing the yearly evolution of the average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic since 1980. Climate Pulse makes it easy for anyone to explore daily, monthly & yearly global surface air & sea surface temperature data. Our guide: climate.copernicus.eu/climate-puls...

In Spain, the “government has approved “paid climate leave” of up to 4 days to allow workers to avoid travelling during weather emergencies, a month after floods killed at least 224 people… The new measure aims to “regulate in accordance with the climate emergency” so that “no worker must run risks”

#Helium is heating up! Great to see O&G Co's, explorers pivot into helium and hydrogen exploration - a sample: www.reuters.com/markets/deal... www.investing.com/news/company... www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals... www.gasworld.com/story/helium... www.share-talk.com/helium-one-p.... As predicted...

If investors have funds they really want to make a difference, then I’d say investing in #fusion energy is a much better bet. Why not re-start #JET, the only D-T-capable machine www.petitions.net/a/417229

#StormBert continues its disruption in Wales and S. England. In #AbingdonOnThames, we are restoring a gable wall on the lovely ethelwoldhouse.com. Today's update "Little progress today as the yard at #Jewson [near #RiverOck] is flooded and James unable to collect timber for infill (pine verticals)"

Climate disasters don't end when the water recedes. Asheville Citizen Times reporter Ryley Ober kayaked 20 miles of the Swannanoa River in early November to document the aftermath of Helene. www.citizen-times.com/story/news/l...

From #COP29 2 things emerged: failure to properly address #climatefinance let alone #lossanddamage. The other? The #energytransition is unstoppable "the market size and value... will equal that of crude oil in 10 years". Need #fusion energy, too, to process back the #minerals humans have squandered

COP29: five critical issues still left hanging after an underwhelming UN climate summit in Azerbaijan Basically China steps up, US says goodbye, India stays at home and Saudi Arabia tries to wreck the party And no real money turned up! 😡😡😡 theconversation.com/cop29-five-c...

homeowners from #HEREFORDSHIRE have saved their home from flooding again by building a wall around their home. They have been flooded out of their home twice before & were displaced for 20 months. Not this time!

The film Dark Waters highlighted the deadly effects of #PFAS or #foreverchemicals. New research shows how sunlight and catalysts break down PFAS - in the lab & it's a very complex process! Transferring #PTFE technology from WW2 tanks to frying pans was the easy part... www.nature.com/articles/d41...