demonhelp.bsky.social
Does something in finance and something with energy.. rest is NDA
106 posts
35 followers
250 following
Active Commenter
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though... guess you right on MISO. prices there have been much higher than what i see for lower 48.
also, think its do more w/ solar/wind costs reflect new build w/ higher T&D costs, while coal/gas is either operating or brownfield ops (like in Duke Indiana RfP)
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Pls speak w/ any level ten employee. their data is based on PPAs they help broker.
also check LBNL data on delta between third party PPA prices like level ten or trio
emp.lbl.gov/sites/defaul...
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This is levelten data for corp PPA, which as I said earlier is inflated due to demand outstripping supply. Also corps going on levelten platform don’t have the negotiating power. Utility RFPs yield a much lower price
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From utilities
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No. New contracts are back to 30-40 range, maybe slightly up due to interest rates
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agree on capacity value. But renewables haven’t become expensive, corporate PPAs are expensive because of high demand and limited supply. The cost to build solar, wind and batteries has been deflationary even compared to pre COVID levels
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So u r saying its economics driven decision, they getting paid more for baseload power or capacity than in the past? And the delayed retirement is not due to delayed net zero plans?
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@edmondmichelet.bsky.social looks like you know the answer. Wanna enlighten us
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Nvidia is at 39x 2025 EV/EBITDA.
Tesla energy could be = $3Bx39 =$117B
So a tenth of their market cap!
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Alrite… let’s take a crack at it. We need two numbers - 2025 EBITDA and EV/EBITDA.
They prob at $1.5B EBITDA in 2025 (25% gross margin, 10% opex). Let’s assume 2026 grows like 2025. So $3b in 2026.
The multiple is an art. let’s assume batteries sell like crazy like NVDA’s chips.
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Me dumb.. was hoping for gravity to show up in prices
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Oil? Heard we gonna drill baby drill
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When does gravity show up?
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Ha
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Ha.. then let musk buy it.. for his utility of future plan
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cash flows? I thought utes investors care about EPS growth and ROE
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just list it and put shares in a US sovereign fund
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Just ask ur ques here
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That’s rich. Am hearing 6-8%
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Not all heroes wear cape
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Agree… ability to use roof solar when grid is down is the incentive
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General practice for new admin or they don’t want interconnection innovation?
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Come to #Energysky for more deepseek
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But then… that was pre deepseek.
Post deepseek maybe we go back to a lower price point
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Btw… Enphase and bunch of other inverters do this in the home, even w/o batteries. But then at best they are only managing surge loads from one AC or few appliances
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Guess u mean this?
Grid forming inverters
www.nrel.gov/docs/fy24ost...
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Edison’s company GEV
“new CCGTs are costing 2,000 per kilowatt all-in and rising perhaps. Is your content still tracking at 30% to 35% of that new build cost?
…So I wouldn't think it's different than what you're saying.”
seekingalpha.com/article/4751...
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Inertia to absorb volatile loads and make sure the grid runs at 50-60hz? Or u mean something else?
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Gas is now like solar where last years capex numbers are outdated, except solar is mostly deflationary due to supply side
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That.. and EPC, and the whole supply chain. The turbine itself is just a third of the overnight capex
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gas will be around for a while… and batteries and inverters can help stabilize at a lower price
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>2000 now. Edison’s company said last week
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Old news… 2000 is the new $700/kW and that’s even before any gas contracts for AI
#Energysky - how high you think by 2030?
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I was thinking about it, but my oldie hasn’t died yet. and the payback on a new machine is 40 years!!!
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Yeah… like how could they not foresee drawing Monalisa in Picasso style needs 100x baseload power
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A complete 360 of their prior no fossil stance. Now partnering up to build gas power plants next decade
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Worst kept secret
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Maybe I can also work on infrared power delivery
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What goes up must come down
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Do you want stationary or mobile? working on a backpack design
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Disclaimer www.eavor.com/press-releas...
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Thanks. bunch of companies are doing load following. They all need to assemble
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Campbell not on sky?
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I disagree
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1 GW data center would need 3000 acres of land. That would limit where you can put this. And if you wait for BLM then that would take years to get approved
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Yeah.. this would be great. I doubt their numbers are right because they are using Lazard’s data, but shouldn’t be that far off. But given tech companies are chasing nukes at $100/mwh, can someone from Google, Amazon or Meta say why they haven’t tried behind meter solar yet?
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Even impressive - that’s 4x of gas turbines installed in a year, even after adjusting for lower capacity factor. And gas turbines will expand manufacturing capacity in 2-3 years, solar can increase production by 50% next year.
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the alternative is using backup generators which is even more polluting
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Deja vu