dschraff.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

'Though the far-right AfD saw similar support among young voters as it did across the general population, the party gained more new voters from the youngest age group than any other’ 🇩🇪 @indubioproreto.bsky.social examines the voting age divide in Germany's election👇 ukandeu.ac.uk/the-age-divi...

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

What a front cover...

submitted 2 days ago • 562 comments

People are recognising the change, but seeing it in numbers is indeed something impressive.

submitted 3 days ago • 7 comments

The data confirms it: According to CHES 2023 on Ukraine, the far right is the party family that strongly seeks ties to the Kremlin and favors trade and diplomacy with Russia, relative to others.

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

As another Trump-induced market crisis unfolds from tariffs, it's time we ask "What's the Matter with Billionaires?" I've run the numbers. Billionaires do better under Dems. So why do billionaires keep supporting GOP policies against their economic interests? See my latest piece on why. (TLDR 🧵⬇️)

submitted 4 days ago • 98 comments

Von der Leyen has just announced the Commission's "Rearm Europe" plan. The most important parts target national fiscal space: The Commission will activate the national escape clauses in the fiscal rules and put a new loans-based instrument on the table. Here is what it means:

submitted 4 days ago • 8 comments

Es scheint mittlerweile Konsens zu sein, dass die Schuldenbremse nicht bleiben kann, wie ist. In Rede stehen jetzt zwei Sondervermögen für Verteidigung und Infrastruktur. Ich verstehe den Appeal, aber das hätte ungewünschte Nebenwirkungen. Hier eine Idee, wie ein besseres Paket aussehen könnte:

submitted 5 days ago • 4 comments

[guy who owns a ton of Pokémon cards]: the United States needs a federal Pokémon card reserve

submitted 5 days ago • 17 comments

European leaders met with 🇺🇦, 🇪🇺 & NATO officials to discuss 🇺🇦 support & defence cooperation. This is all very welcome & needed. But for peace & defence efforts to be future-proof & credible, public support is essential. Building it won’t be easy. 🧵with @eupinions.bsky.social data

submitted 6 days ago • 3 comments

Die Stärke der AfD bei den Jungen ist primär auf dem Land sichtbar - in Städten ist sie deutlich unbeliebter bei Jungen. Das zeigen @lhaffert.bsky.social und ich hier empirisch auch für frühere Wahlen: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

submitted 6 days ago • 0 comments

Done ✔️

submitted 7 days ago • 2 comments

Überall sehen wir Wahlkreiskarten mit Ostdeutschland in AfD-Blau. Tatsächlich trägt Ostdeutschland aber 2025 weniger zum AfD-Ergebnis bei als 2021: Die AfD-Wählerschaft ist westdeutscher geworden. Noch stärker ist das bei der Linken. Grund: BSW holt 1/3 seiner Stimmen in ostdeutschen Flächenländern.

submitted 7 days ago • 2 comments

Well, as America implodes from within, it’d be a great time for the EU to finally do official Eurobonds. It’d likely be very attractive as a safe haven given the destruction of US hegemony & spillover to US T-bills. Bonus: Eurobonds can finance a desperately needed European security build up! 🇪🇺💶 ‼️

submitted 8 days ago • 17 comments

@hudde.bsky.social und ich haben das AfD-Ergebnis in den 299 Bundestagswahlkreisen & den rund 4400 Gemeindeverbänden ausgewertet. Unsere Ergebnisse vom Montag und zahlreiche neue gibt es nun als Blogbeitrag für @emppolitikwiss.bsky.social. Thread 🧵👇. www.politik-wissenschaft.org/2025/02/28/a...

submitted 8 days ago • 7 comments

Germany‘s got the best US bases in the world. Beautiful bases. Tremendous. Nobody has anything like it. And, frankly, we’re giving them to the US for free. Can you imagine that? For free! It’s nasty what they’re doing to us, really. So we want a better deal. The US‘s gotta pay. They gotta pay. 🫲🫱

submitted 8 days ago • 80 comments

Inheritance flows are rising as a share of national output in many rich countries (The Economist)

submitted 9 days ago • 3 comments

Having driven a surge in support for the Liberals in Canada, President Trump turns his energy to boosting support for the EU.

submitted 10 days ago • 18 comments

Very nice forthcoming APSR from Cox, Epp, and @mshepruralpolitics.bsky.social. Rural hospital closures reduced turnout nearby. We want people who experience social or economic hardship to speak up politically--but hardship reduces your voice. gated: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

submitted 11 days ago • 4 comments

Occasional reminder of differences PRE German partition. See (pdf) 👉 www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=... @lukasmergele.bsky.social @woessmann.bsky.social

submitted 12 days ago • 5 comments

An interesting result of the German election is the continuing urban-rural polarization between progressive and far-right voting (especially in West Germany). A look at the current results by electoral district underestimate the intensity of it. Consider by home electoral district Konstanz, 1/n

submitted 12 days ago • 3 comments

AfD overwhelmingly won votes from non-voters and the centre-right. This is a standard pattern. It is a myth that the radical right are mainly winning disaffected centre-left voters.

submitted 12 days ago • 23 comments

Despite a big increase in turnout, yesterday's elections have seen the lowest share of invalid votes at any German federal election ever at 0.6 percent. People can vote correctly when they want to.

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

Deutschland hat gewählt, und die AfD gilt als die große Siegerin. Wie lässt sich ihr Ergebnis einordnen, und welche geografischen Merkmale prägen ihre Unterstützung? @hudde.bsky.social und ich haben das AfD-Zweitstimmenergebnis in den 299 Bundestagswahlkreisen ausgewertet. Ein Thread. 🧵👇

submitted 12 days ago • 20 comments

Ein Blick auf den Stadt-Land-Gegensatz. Abgebildet für jede Partei ihr nach Bevölkerungsdichte mittlerer Wahlkreis: 50% ihrer Stimmen sind urbaner, 50% ländlicher. AfD im Westen stärker und damit etwas urbaner, BSW ähnlich wie Union (weil Ostdeutsch), Grüne bleiben stark urban, Linke urban wie nie.

submitted 12 days ago • 3 comments

So the major surprise turned out to be the rise of the populist left in Germany 🤔

submitted 13 days ago • 15 comments

“Being tired of the traffic light, they wanted a GroKo or Germany but eventually got Kenya” In case you feel lost in the 🇩🇪 coalition jungle, I have compiled some useful information for you to survive the next 48 hours 👇 #Bundestagswahl2025

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

🛡️ Defending Europe without the US: first estimates of what is needed 🪖 Alexandr Burilkov and @guntramwolff.bsky.social assess the measures Europe would need to implement to defend itself in a land war if needed. 🔗 Analysis here: https://buff.ly/416kSua #EconSky

submitted 15 days ago • 3 comments

Great study on the "Modifiable Areal Unit Problem" (MAUP) highlights how statistical results can depend on the choice of spatial unit. Size of spatial units and the location of their borders affect the empirical results we obtain (county, municipality, postcode area, etc.). Yet, two thoughts... 1/5

submitted 15 days ago • 1 comment

We streamlined six new DID-like estimators and created this tutorial for implementation in R. yiqingxu.org/packages/fec... Hope you no longer need to spend months figuring out what these estimators are and how to use them.

submitted 15 days ago • 6 comments

Here are some cool animations I made a couple years ago for teaching DAG-based causal inference Confounding!

submitted 16 days ago • 14 comments

I really liked this idea of using a histogram as a legend in a choropleth map (since land isn't unemployed; people are), so I made a little guide to doing it with #rstats, {ggplot2}, and {patchwork} www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2025/02...

submitted 17 days ago • 29 comments

NEW - Conflict Abroad and Political Trust at Home: Evidence from a Natural Experiment - cup.org/411jfxP - Margaryta Klymak & Tim Vlandas

submitted 17 days ago • 0 comments

I read a lot of news on how Europe is standing pants down with respect to defence without the US. But could one qualify this more? The EU does hold nuclear deterrence powers (France), the total number of tanks or fighter jets seems to match the Russian arsenal. 1/2

submitted 17 days ago • 1 comment

NEW - Studying Multi-Level Systems with Cross-Level Data: Introducing Three Integrated Datasets - cup.org/4b8LzTi - Leonce Röth, @dasalgon.bsky.social, @dielea.bsky.social & André Kaiser

submitted 17 days ago • 0 comments

"organising an election in such a way that we Germans abroad can also cast our vote without any problems seems to be an impossibility" Still haven't got my ballot papers either, and now it would be too late to make it back to Germany in time anyway. Shameful taz.de/Bundestagswa...

submitted 18 days ago • 4 comments

Not only have we included an additional four papers, but those that weren't already open access are now free to read. 👇 New authors inc @theresakuhn.bsky.social, @florianstoeckel.bsky.social, @turnbulldugarte.com, @mauritsmeijers.bsky.social, @bjoernbremer.bsky.social, @dschraff.bsky.social

submitted 18 days ago • 1 comment

Die U18-Wahl ist in aller Munde... wir haben im vergangenen Jahr zur Europawahl junge Menschen, ihre politischen Einstellungen und Verhaltensabsichten in den Blick genommen - "Jugend wählt: Perspektiven junger Menschen auf Wahlalter, politische Informationen und Parteien bei der Europawahl 2024" 🧵

submitted 19 days ago • 2 comments

New blog post! Sometimes, when reviewing a manuscript, it's really unclear to me what precisely the authors are trying to do -- which makes it hard to evaluate the work properly. So, here's some advice for how to ensure that readers don't get lost. www.the100.ci/2025/02/17/r...

submitted 19 days ago • 6 comments

Can the EU stop making overly complex rules? 1 / The EU is great at regulating - but sometimes too great. A look inside how policies are made, why simplification efforts often come too late, and what needs to change. 🧵

submitted 19 days ago • 1 comment