gregorytravis.com
Writer & Columnist for IEEE. COVID data geek. Political junkie. Midwesterner
Working on a book about engineering, ethics and responsibility in the age of fraud
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This suggests that something other than COVID is responsible for the excess deaths now, or that deaths caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection in children are being wrongly attributed to some other pathogen on death certificates
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As you can clearly see here, deaths in school-aged children are now a year-round phenomenon
And it's getting worse, not better. Take a look at the data labelled "incomplete data"
It's incomplete because all of the death certificates haven't been counted there
The numbers will go up
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Can you say "stock pump?"
AI is an enormous bubble that has been wildly over-promised and that will wildly-under deliver
And there will be hell to pay in the markets when the Grift is up
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I'm not saying anything that they're not planning on doing anyway
Yes, we are going to see all vaccine recommendations for children dropped by the end of the year
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The maximum vaccination rate is given on this chart:
For 12-17yo, 63% of the population received at least one initial COVID vaccine
For those 5-11: 34%
For those 2-4: 5.5%
For those 0-1: 4%
And that was as of two years ago. Virtually no US child has had a vaccination within the last year
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Pediatric SARS-CoV-2 vaccination rates in the USA are virtually nonexistent
At this point it's safe to say that while most children have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 multiple times, most children are also not vaccinated against the SARS-CoV-2 virus
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Viral infection are a significant cause of chronic heart disease as well as acute events such as stroke or cardiac arrest
We see this in the data. Pediatric >cardiovascular mortality< for instance corresponds nicely with periods of high viral infection in children
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This is absolutely true
But if we are going to communicate this information to the public it is extremely important that when we talk about excess deaths we say what they are excess TO -- exactly what you are saying
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I steadfastly avoid pointing out the massive racial disparity in mortality outcomes from COVID
Why?
Because when powerful White Men hear that a deadly viral pathogen only affects poor Black people and not them, they stop doing anything about it
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Saying kids don't need to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 infections because they are being constantly re-infected is STRAIGHT out of the Great Barrington Declaration
It's not surprising Mina is parroting the economic desires of a right-wing think tank to restore the status quo "for the economy"
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"Covid shot no longer recommended for healthy kids and pregnant women"
1. SARS-CoV-2 continues to be the leading cause of death from infectious disease in healthy kids
2. Pregnant women by definition have impaired immune function and are one of the highest-risk groups for SARS-CoV-2 infection
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for the US
I don't have as problem with that but it should be a little more clear from the get-go since most other estimates of US excess mortality, including mine, are much lower (though still incredibly high)
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Yes, I understand that now. If I understand it, you are using European mortality baselines and then applying those baselines to US mortality data to produce the excess death estimates
Given that the US has terribly high mortality rates compared to Europe this will produce inflated excess estimates
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Yeah, except we don't see that happening in any age bracket other than those aged 45-74 years old
For all other ages, particularly the young, mortality continues at a very high rate
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Excess Deaths vs. COVID infections 2020-present
I calculate 25,104 excess deaths from disease and 33,727 a-cause excess deaths for 2023
705K excess deaths in 2023 is simply not credible at any level
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Probably. But given the inaccuracies with measuring wastewater concentrations it's hard to say definitively
But the correlation between WW levels and COVID deaths is remarkable
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Yes, sadly the pandemic is ongoing for one class of people -- those aged 5-17
It's stopped for us older adults
But for children it keeps on going, relentlessly
When are we going to talk about this?
I'm guessing it's an Inconvenient Truth
So, never?
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That's the same chart as I did for all ages except it's now restricted to the 5-17yo age group
Why does that chart look so different than the all-ages one?
More important, why does it look like the pandemic did not end in February 2024 for children?
Here's why
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Those charts were for deaths in ALL ages
Since most people wait until they are old to die, the statistics in that chart are flooded by the ordinary, expected, deaths of old people and old people die, as I said, all the time
So take a look at this chart
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Note that the black and white lines converge again in February of 2024
Does that mean the SARS-CoV-2 ("COVID") pandemic only lasted from 2020-2024?
No. And I am going to tell you why...
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Until January 2020, actual deaths were identical to what we expected
But then the lines began to diverge
The gap between the lines is "excess" death if the black line is above the white line
It's NEGATIVE excess deaths if the black line is below the white line
So simple even I understand it
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Here's an example of excess death analysis
The white line represents the number of deaths per month that we EXPECT, given history
The black line represents the ACTUAL number of deaths each month
Expected vs. Actual
Yes, it's as simple as that
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How do we better measure the impact of a disease when it is widely acknowledged that traditional methods of measuring disease mortality are inaccurate?
One tool is "excess death" analysis
This is simply a comparison of current mortality to a historic baseline
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Just need to build out more AI data centers in Qatar and then we can train the model the right way and everyone's Tesla will become self-aware
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It's absolutely not strange if you have any idea of how the technology works and how it DOESN'T work and what can and cannot do
I know you know that, Ed. But I thought I would state the obvious, again
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My take is that it is anomalous. About once a decade (very roughly) we see a very bad flu season (though well below pandemic status). I think this is one of them
There is also a pretty good chance that a lot of deaths are being attributed to flu that are not
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Jan/Feb/Mar of 2025 were three of the worst influenza months in twenty years
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Absolutely false. Medieval society (ca. ~1,000AD) was a continual series of religious holidays punctuated by short planting and harvesting seasons
Nearly half of the days of the year in 1,000AD were designated as some kind of festival.
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He may be working 2-4 hours at the computer but I guarantee you he's billing his clients for 8-10 hours