grudkevich.bsky.social
Economist. Former Assistant Professor of Political Science, focusing on Russia and Central Asia. All views my own.
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Yet another incumbent getting trounced. apnews.com/article/germ...
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Unsurprisingly, refugees want to live in places with easy access to and ready availability of jobs.
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Maybe once he tells River to cut back on the running scenes that never quite accomplish their purpose.
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Are you saying rice and beans cost less than $30 per meal? Who's paying you? Big Rice?
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Some people build their identity on "the system is to blame for all of my problems", making it impossible to admit they share some of the blame. There's a reason that the stereotypical meal for grad students is ramen, not a $30 burrito (once delivery charges, cost surcharges, and tips are included).
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Given their level of morale, I doubt they can defeat the pike-wielding Swiss Guard.
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Assad narrowly missed out on making the list (he came to power midway through 2000). Which means the list remains unchanged.
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And Israel in the Golan Heights. It could get really messy if agreements aren't made in the near future.
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It's a free-for-all right now. The question is what happens when the rebels consolidate most of their flanks.
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Additionally, Assad went all-in on coup-proofing (making it very difficult for internal factions to overthrow the government) his regime. Unfortunately for him, this has a devastating impact on military effectiveness. Also, see Qaddafi. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
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Makes me wonder what would have happened if Prigozhin really tried to overthrow Putin. It's one thing to get people to fight against foreign adversaries. But how many would have fought against internal ones?
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He got more support, but that doesn't compare to the performance of the main opposition party (PP).
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Similar anti-incumbency phenomenon throughout Africa. www.bbc.com/news/article...
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Another example of mainstream incumbents being punished for their perceived role in a country's inflation crisis. As often the case, an anti-establishment candidate benefited. bsky.app/profile/poli...
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About that. www.bbc.com/news/article...
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Given the huge military signing bonuses, Russians are awash with money. www.yahoo.com/news/russian...
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The other strand of post-election analysis is telling one's party to do (or not do) X to win the next election, even though the same people were already advocating for that policy before the election.
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Post-election analysis is always a textbook example of post hoc ergo propter hoc. The winning party did X, Y, and Z. Therefore, X, Y, and Z must be responsible for their victory. Systemic conditions, changing demographics, major events, and even luck are deemed irrelevant.
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When did everyone become a post-modernist? The idea that the choice of words is determining political outcomes is absurd. Most people are hyper-partisan and will adopt the language of their parties. They are not voting for that party because of the language it uses.
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Not to mention that dropping 1 place in the rankings is basically statistical noise.
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As some people pointed out, I missed non-European Western elections. Added New Zealand and Japan to the countries that had elections and Australia and Canada to the list of upcoming ones. Same anti-incumbency bias.
*the French election wasn't for the top political post
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I'm sure each election has some local element, but it beggars belief that virtually every Western incumbent from the past 1.5 years lost significant support because of those local factors and not because of a common global cause (i.e., the global inflation crisis).
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Here are three upcoming elections in Western countries. Compare the incumbent's past performance with their current polling.
As you could see, all three incumbents are headed for major defeat.
(polling numbers from Wikipedia's national polling averages)