grudkevich.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

Is this the country Western investors want access to? www.nytimes.com/2025/02/22/w...

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

What happens when the cartels retaliate? This war will be much harder to retreat from than wars fought thousands of miles away. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

submitted 8 days ago • 1 comment

The left map shows the parts of Germany with the highest percentage of Syrian refugees. The right map shows public support for the anti-migrant AfD. Something to keep in mind when reading stories that posit a direct link between refugee numbers and support for the far-right.

submitted 15 days ago • 12 comments

The DeepSeek news about the cost-effectiveness of technology reminds me of the old joke about NASA:

submitted 29 days ago • 2 comments

Not even one whole day into the new year.

submitted 55 days ago • 0 comments

Pet peeve: people blaming capitalism for things that preexisted capitalism. You think inequality, poor social mobility, discrimination, etc. didn't exist under feudalism or manoralism? When these issues exist throughout space and time, it seems the problem is much deeper than the economic system.

submitted 59 days ago • 3 comments

Sounds like an "I'm sorry you're upset" apology. www.bbc.com/news/article...

submitted 59 days ago • 0 comments

It's tempting to trust (and share) stats that reinforce one's preexisting beliefs. But that's precisely when you should dig into and find the original source. And if there is no original source, heavily discount information from whoever "cited" it. There should be a social cost for misinformation.

submitted 61 days ago • 0 comments

meduza.io/en/cards/was...

submitted 62 days ago • 1 comment

A Russian leader spouting anti-Semitic rhetoric is about as surprising as an American health insurance company refusing to cover a needed medical procedure. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...

submitted 62 days ago • 3 comments

Curious how someone in jail since 2020 could commit espionage. Russia isn't even trying anymore. www.bbc.com/news/article...

submitted 63 days ago • 0 comments

I would heavily discount reports of any agreements between Russia and Syrian rebels. Until the rebels consolidate control over their country, they have a huge incentive to avoid picking unnecessary fights.

submitted 75 days ago • 1 comment

Russian response to America's withdrawal from Afghanistan 3 years ago. www.rferl.org/a/afghanista...

submitted 79 days ago • 0 comments

Can't think of many successful armed rebellions (not military coups) this side of the millennium (Libya is close, but foreign powers played a huge role). And now there are two (Afghanistan and Syria).

submitted 80 days ago • 1 comment

Syrian army command tells officers that Assad's rule has ended, officer says - www.reuters.com/world/middle...

submitted 80 days ago • 0 comments

It doesn't look like Syria's regular forces are willing to die for Assad. The real question is what happens when all that's left for the rebels to take are the areas dominated by Alawites and Kurds. Will there be some kind of a compromise or a major bloodbath?

submitted 80 days ago • 2 comments

Suggests the end could be nearer for the Assad regime than anyone could have imagined a month ago. www.nytimes.com/2024/12/06/w...

submitted 81 days ago • 4 comments

Live by the foreign sword, die by the foreign sword. Assad had over a decade to consolidate support. Instead, he continued to rely on Russia and Hezbollah, both of whom are quite busy elsewhere.

submitted 87 days ago • 1 comment

Russia is starting to construct more concrete plans to prevent pro-EU forces in Moldova from gaining a majority in the 2025 legislative elections. One strategy is already emerging: Moscow is weaponizing Chișinău's dependence on a Transnistrian power plant for its electricity...

submitted 90 days ago • 4 comments

The implication of Russia's nuclear weapons being put on full combat alert for the first 2-3 weeks of the invasion is that Putin was expecting a much more devastating Western response. Instead, all he got was moderate sanctions and the delivery of limited types of arms. www.bbc.com/news/article...

submitted 92 days ago • 3 comments

Almost 80,000 named Russian soldiers fighting Ukraine war are confirmed dead, according to latest update from joint BBC Russian/Mediazona project that tracks obituaries and other public sources. They estimate identifying about half the actual number. en.zona.media/article/2022...

submitted 93 days ago • 0 comments

This is how Russia's economy remains intact despite the ostensibly severe Western sanctions. In the end, the side that wins (between countries with a similar amount of power) is the one with more willpower. www.bbc.com/news/article...

submitted 94 days ago • 1 comment

Yet another data point of Russia's invasion of Ukraine making Russia substantially less safe. All this for land that Russia already had significant influence over due to the success of its political proxies. www.bbc.com/news/article...

submitted 94 days ago • 0 comments

Interesting piece on the Russian elite expecting imminent American collapse. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/o...

submitted 96 days ago • 0 comments

To sustain their offensive in Ukraine, Russian officials are resorting to increasingly aggressive tactics, including manipulation and coercion, to pressure people into signing army contracts. https://buff.ly/3ADgYzI

submitted 101 days ago • 3 comments

Here's a list of all Western incumbents who faced an election for their top political position since July 2023 (parties that were in power for <2 years are excluded). Out of 11 incumbents, only 1 (Luxembourg's) saw its vote share increase. Note that the parties spanned the political spectrum.

submitted 109 days ago • 9 comments

Certain Western political scientists: Russians are opposed to NATO and EU expansion due to legitimate security concerns. Actual Russian arguments:

submitted 128 days ago • 0 comments