iansimpson27.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

Latest post on the Polar vortex blog: www.climate.gov/news-feature...

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

I thought getting Windows 11 Pro for my new home desktop might give me more control over Windows updates (via Group Policy Editor) than Win 11 Home, but this seems to be illusory. I set it to only download updates on Saturdays, but Microsoft ignores this setting and force feeds them midweek anyway.

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

I remember this, I liked to call it "Dennis the Menace" at the time. If I remember rightly Storm Dennis was responsible for one of the UK's wettest days on record.

submitted 6 days ago • 0 comments

This graph puts things into perspective. Winter 2024-25 is notably cloudy by modern standards. Things used to be significantly worse for winter sunshine but from a wx enthusiast POV what this does not tell you is how snowy it also used to be. Some snowy ones were very cloudy.

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

An insightful blog from @nicksweathereye.bsky.social on easterlies: www.netweather.tv/weather-fore... I recall similar setups sometimes being grey & hazy with limited snow in the 1990s/2000s, but I'm sure it used to be rare to get nothing but rain from them in lowland eastern England in Jan/Feb.

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

I don't think I've mentioned this on Bsky yet, I've been pleased to see that Wetterzentrale have quietly updated their ERA synoptic archives to include ERA5 from 1940 to 2024. It's generally a significant improvement over the ERA 20th century reanalysis. Sample chart: easterly on 7 February 1991.

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

On 8/9 February 1999, a low pressure system bumping into a cold northerly flow brought widespread snow to England and Wales. As it cleared southwards, snow showers followed into most eastern coastal areas, but inland it became dry. It was the most substantial cold spell in a generally mild winter.

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

Keep an eye on this graph over the next few days or so (zacklabe.com/arctic-tempe...). An extreme #Arctic winter warming event is occurring bringing a narrow band of near freezing air temperatures close to the North Pole (associated with poleward movement of excessive heat and moisture).

submitted 20 days ago • 5 comments

February has arrived - in his recent blog @iansimpson27.bsky.social looks back at February's from the recent past, and ahead to what may be to come this year.

submitted 21 days ago • 0 comments

Some exceptional warmth being modelled for the high Arctic into the beginning of next week.

submitted 23 days ago • 0 comments

How #StormÉowyn compares to some of the worst storms of the 20th century in Ireland in terms of max wind gusts.

submitted 29 days ago • 2 comments

Here's some maps showing where today's winds fit in each station's all-time #climate, in terms of percentiles and "rank". I tend to find 99%'ile or greater a good guide, with established stations, for impactful winds. A number of all-time station records set in #StormÉowyn

submitted 29 days ago • 4 comments

Now coming into T+6 hours and still staggeringly high winds forecast for Ireland. Figures are in km/h, so 220km/h west of Ireland is approximately 140mph. Could be record breaking winds especially near Ireland's west coast. For most of the mainland looks like being up to 100mph.

submitted 30 days ago • 0 comments

Whether this verifies or not, can we just take a moment to fathom seeing a chart like this - this close. Mark it down in the books. #StormÉowyn

submitted 30 days ago • 2 comments

A correction - Wetterzentrale uses km/h for wind speeds, not knots. Thus, the speeds of >200 were in km/h, corresponding to gusts of over 125mph. Still, even with that correction, I very rarely see wind gusts of that magnitude other than at T+240 plus on the GFS.

submitted 31 days ago • 0 comments

Friday's storm isn't quite as scary looking as I just indicated because Wetterzentrale seems to have a glitch with the wind gusts - the consensus among other sites is for max gusts of 110-130mph to the west of Ireland and onto the west coast. Still scary by most standards though.

submitted 31 days ago • 0 comments

Very scary looking storm coming up for Ireland and possibly parts of N England on Friday. Forecast gusts of 200 knots (230mph) west of Ireland and 130-140 knots (150-160mph) over the mainland is what I usually see when the GFS goes off on one at T+240+. But this is a 36 hour forecast from ECMWF...

submitted 31 days ago • 0 comments

Significant change in our weather pattern on the way 💨 🔹 Jet stream intensifying, bringing bouts of strong winds and rain. 🌧️ 🔹 Generally mild, but colder weather possible at times - especially in the North. ❄️ 🔹 Unsettled conditions likely to persist into February. 🗓️

submitted 35 days ago • 1 comment

I believe that anyone who says making music is not enjoyable hasn’t created music, or has been unfortunate to have had a bad experience, a bad teacher, etc. Creating things like art or music is not a chore. We sweep floors to make them clean, but we make things to make things.

submitted 41 days ago • 21 comments

Fitbit's cardio load is another AI feature that you can't turn off. It was rolled out at Christmas when I was averaging 5,000 steps/day and used this as my baseline. Now that I'm back to walking 12,000 steps/day it keeps nagging me that I'm overtraining and, ironically, that I should try walking...

submitted 41 days ago • 0 comments

Graphic du jour #2; this one is kind of a no brainer. www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar... I want to dedicate a couple of tweets to the question of "have we passed 1.5 C", though I'm not sure it will add much to what @climateofgavin.bsky.social said (link) so you could go read that. #graphicdujour

submitted 42 days ago • 7 comments

Two feet of snow here in Hampshire UK

submitted 49 days ago • 3 comments

Back from Christmas holidays where I temporarily lost my Bluesky login. Chance of some snow here in Lincoln but probably overnight, meaning I might have to stay up into the early hours to see it. Back to rain here by 9am tomorrow, but could be substantial snow in the north of England tomorrow.

submitted 50 days ago • 0 comments

Three charts based on our #C3S ERA5 dataset you shouldn’t miss this month: 📈 Surface air temperature anomaly for November 2024 – CopernicusEU 📈 Daily global surface temperatures since 1940 – @hausfath.bsky.social 📈 Extreme rainfall events in Europe since 1980 – Deep Sky Research

submitted 66 days ago • 2 comments

Shrinking Antarctic sea ice is making waves - literally! New research led by our friends at @noc.ac.uk shows that the record 2023 sea ice lows doubled ocean heat loss and sparked more storms over the Southern Ocean ⬇️ 🧪🌊 www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/d...

submitted 66 days ago • 2 comments

Two major sudden stratospheric warmings during winter 2023/2024 New paper from me, @drahbutler.bsky.social and Gloria Manney published open-access today in Weather doi.org/10.1002/wea....

submitted 69 days ago • 1 comment

With 2024 looking almost certain to be the warmest year on record globally, @metoffice.bsky.social predicts a marginally cooler year in 2025 as El Niño is over. Still likely to be the third warmest though. www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...

submitted 73 days ago • 2 comments

After a period of very little signal for what follows the current decaying AKR regime, North American regime forecasts have now abruptly started showing a Pacific Trough regime to develop by mid-month. Something shifted starting from the 6 December initialisation. simonleewx.com/gefs_north_a...

submitted 76 days ago • 2 comments

Fewer low-altitude clouds may explain 'missing' 0.2C of warming from Earth's hottest year: study - reason for fewer clouds is unclear #ClimateCrisis www.abc.net.au/news/science...

submitted 79 days ago • 5 comments

Rare red weather warnings are out for Storm Darragh tomorrow. I'm not surprised, the storm looks particularly vicious.

submitted 79 days ago • 0 comments

I've lost about 50 followers on Twitter/X in the past month. I reckon it's one of those situations where, when the climate becomes inhospitable for birds (those who tweet), they tend to emigrate to sunnier climes where the skies are usually blue.

submitted 80 days ago • 0 comments

This weekend could get off to a very lively start, a period to keep a close eye on..

submitted 80 days ago • 0 comments

Bluesky is winning because both twitter and threads have gone out of their way to make their platforms inhospitable to reputable journalists and news. @kattenbarge.bsky.social reports: www.nbcnews.com/tech/social-...

submitted 85 days ago • 792 comments

In a new post over at The Climate Brink I take an in-depth look at how "weird" the recent El Nino event was. Compared to prior strong events, global surface temperatures rose earlier and high temperatures have persisted for longer: www.theclimatebrink....

submitted 90 days ago • 2 comments

You know the "🔹AI Overview" you get on Google Search? I discovered today that it's repeating as fact something I made up 7 years ago as a joke. "Kyloren syndrome" is a fictional disease I invented as part of a sting operation to prove that you can publish any nonsense in predatory journals...

submitted 93 days ago • 135 comments

Summer UK temperatures have warmed faster than global average temperature. But the very hottest days have warmed 4x faster than the global average, especially in south-east England. Global warming is not "just" 1°C or 2°C. The effects of climate change are non-linear, especially for extremes.

submitted 94 days ago • 18 comments

Not too bad I suppose for England at least, where snow is falling and likely settling now vs my snow accumulation map #uksnow #uksnowmap

submitted 96 days ago • 0 comments

These are some recent photos from my part of downhill Lincoln. I really hadn't been expecting anything like this!

submitted 96 days ago • 0 comments