jackeroni.bsky.social
Data scientist extraordinaire, Lover of dogs and coffee. Still trying to figure out things in life. Check out my newsletter jackhorne.net
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Give the puppos their treatos!
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Very much agree
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The title above the table uses the word « durablement » and in the footnote suggests that an apartment has to be vacant for 2 years to be counted as such. I’m not disagreeing with your overall point, but I think this may look different if you looked over a shorter period of time.
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That adds up to more than 9, Kevin
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I am so there.
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To be fair, the Australian dollar is in the shitter recently, so that may have some effect on the YoY changes, but no doubt that the Trump effect is exerting downward pressure on international travel.
Would be interesting to see the trend to the EU as well which has a bigger currency difference.
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Except, replace those “m”s with “b”s.
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*but
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It do you know how much work is required to raise a puppy?!
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SARGE!
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Add some numbers, symbols, and lowercase letters and you’ve got yourself a font
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This the classic idea of overfitting a statistical model. You load it up with so many parameters that it can’t make reliable predictions outside its training set.
I wrote about this recently in my newsletter.
www.jackhorne.net/does-llm-siz...
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What is the slope of that function? Looks like you’d need a DIME score > 10 to swing the function in Trump’s direction. 🤪
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The answer appears to be yes, but. Why is the answer to life’s big questions almost always yes, but? Probably a subject for another post.
Anyway, subscribe to my newsletter (it’s free) for more insights like this. I might even include photos of my dogs!
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Apologies, in looking at it more closely, the burbs is not a binomial function. 😇 Other points still stand
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… that alone would show a downturn at the upper end in Chicago and not in the burbs.
Agree with you about self selection bias.
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Not surprised that the ogive continues to dominate in the combined data since every observation on the upper end comes from Chicago.
My concern is that you’ve fit what appears to be a cubic function to the Chicago data and a binomial to the burbs …
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Why are you fitting different functions to the two different regions? Also, there don’t appear to be very many precincts in the burbs where college edu > 0.6, while in chitown there are a slew approaching 0.8. Coincidentally, that’s where vote share levels off.
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The extra 1% is the friends we met along the way
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Measles … but it might be malaria once mosquito breeding season gets up and running
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The Turn of the Screw?
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Maybe someone should write a “how to” book about it
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Yes, the ads I’m seeing are soliciting donations, but they feature the candidate and appear to speak to the rural nature of the district — he’s in a dairy barn in one of the ads
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I’m getting ads on IG about that race. I’m on the west coast. Could they be any less targeted?
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He’s still alive. I saw him last week at k-mart.
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I don’t like the shape of that trend line
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We can rely on AI, which is never ever wrong.
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While related, your example seems to be a better description of base rate fallacy. Player A had a higher average as a result of a much smaller base. You haven’t really combined data here to show an example of Simpson’s paradox
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It gets worse. If you look back to last season, the current # of cases is 2x the *peak* of 2023-24 and the current % positive is 1.5x. We’re in for a world of hurt.
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How can you separate the slop from the valid information though without the domain knowledge? You need more than a mindset to ask the right questions
www.jackhorne.net/why-is-gen-a...
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A small correction In 2018, Canada changed the lyrics to make them gender neutral. “thy sons” was changed to “of us.” Otherwise, love your thread.
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Looks like the town might be Prelino, a village near Brdo in present day Bosnia & Herzegovina
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This is getting tiring. I didn’t say it was “just a supply issue,”and you putting that in quotes suggests dishonesty on your part. I agree that it’s regional — I even said that in my post —but in many cities, wages are outpacing rents. That’s what the national trend shows.
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You said yourself that housing, healthcare, and inflation are still rising faster than wages. It’s just not true 2/2
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You’re moving the goalposts just a bit, though I agree with you about housing. Even that though is isolated to the big cities (note the national trend is negative — wages rising faster than rents), so that suggests a supply issue). 1/
streeteasy.com/blog/rents-g...
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And yet, for the last 25 months wages have been outpacing inflation. Polls still suggest people believe the opposite to be true. A lot of the perception has to do with what people are told, not their own lived experiences.
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was great (their wages were rising fast after all), but the national economy was poor because "inflation" was in the headlines.
Now, if you want to talk housing prices and supply, that's a different story, but people were not experiencing hardships due to inflation.
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At its peak, inflation only outpaced wages by 2.4% YoY in December 2022. Your "years of inflation driven losses" was an 18-month period from June 2021 to January 2023. What people were telling pollsters during this time is that their lived experience 1/
www.statista.com/statistics/1...
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That’s why I’m on Ghost.io
www.jackhorne.net/does-gen-ai-...
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I featured this article in my newsletter this morning
www.jackhorne.net/does-gen-ai-...
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Did not see the ad in Portland, OR
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Happy birthday Theo!
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You bet. I read this yesterday. Breaks my heart that we’re not told what the response was when the child asked if they could move to Canada 😢
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Here is the link. See para 115
agportal-s3bucket.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Washington_v...