Profile avatar
joyner.bsky.social
Security studies professor. Defense policy, civ-mil, interservice rivalry, and conflict intervention. Blogging at OutsideTheBeltway.com.
871 posts 1,607 followers 525 following
Prolific Poster
Conversation Starter

A few final thoughts on Trump, NATO, Ukraine and European strategic autonomy. First, there is an honest good-faith debate to be had about the cost-benefit analysis from the US perspective of US security guarantees to Europe. 🧵

Fast forward to today and some of the grim national security implications of the DOGE assault on government agencies by me and @profsaunders.bsky.social for @foreignaffairs.com : www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Since people keep asking: U.S. commercial aircraft incidents that resulted in a fatality/total fatalities 2020: 0/0 2021: 0/0 2022: 1/10 2023: 0/0 2024: 0/0 2025 (so far): 2/77

Dallas fans have protested Luka being traded harder than congressional dems have fought a coup

This. Share this.

SCOOP: USAID is getting chopped to under 300 employees. Total. We knew this was coming, more or less, but it's still mind-boggling. www.wired.com/story/doge-g...

This is a law, passed by Congress, that the executive branch is required to enforce, and which was just upheld by an 8-1 Supreme Court decision less than a year ago.

Listen to this right now - crystal clear about the threat of democratic erosion and how what happened in places like Hungary could happen here

Also, no previous president has been so aggressively stupid about international power politics and international political economy. Taking these steps would destroy dollar hegemony; even threatening to take these steps accelerates the decline of dollar hegemony.

NYT reported that the number of potentially affected agents is as high as 6k. The bureau has about 13.7k agents total

The National Transportation Safety Board telling media they can only receive updates via the government-aligned website of the oligarch who is running the administration. The government helping to make X relevant is one of a myriad of ways Musk's public role boosts his private businesses.

“There’s a strange notion going around that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s foreign-policy picks reveal something about his likely approach to international affairs…We should really know better by now.”

Every piece I ever wrote for a paycheck has long since vanished from everywhere except the wayback machine. The erasure of my professional footprint, as a writer, makes me feel a kind of way that I have difficulty putting words to.

This reminds me of an item in The Ankler recently, where a young actor said it’s hard to get featured guest star spots on sitcoms because those now go to movie guys with spare time. Same basic idea. What about the 20-something who’s losing out on their first big part so Hanks can mess around?

It’s kind of amazing to read an MSM story this month that refuses to pull its punches.

If you are old enough, you remember getting chickenpox. Everyone got it. If you are young enough, you don’t know what I’m talking about. That’s because vaccines work.

This sort of perspective is honestly so important. Until we get posts like this on Bluesky this platform will remain an echo chamber full of people who will not die at 51 of complications from a sprained ankle that they treated by drinking a gallon of mercury.

Syria’s starting conditions for a post-authoritarian transition are extremely poor. Its leaders need to get ahead of 4 key security challenges immediately: 🧵 1) Securing the Central Bank & any other buildings that might be looted 2) Establishing monopoly over use of force

Probably the best response tweet ever in the history of X

Assad's unraveling had multiple causes, not least the hollowing out of the Syrian army and its Russian backer. But to the extent the weakening of Hezbollah and Iran played a role, Israel just traded a nationalist-Islamist nonstate actor on one border for a nationalist-jihadist state on another.

Its not just that Trump has loyalty tests: you have to be willing to say that there was nothing wrong with January 6, and that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump. You have to commit to conspiracy theories to work in Trump’s government. www.nytimes.com/2024/12/07/u...

It feels very fitting to this moment of global leaderless-ness that absolutely no one outside Syria appears to have anticipated this or planned for its eventuality

BREAKING: The entire British Army would be destroyed in “six months to a year” in a largescale war – underlining the importance of rebuilding the UK’s reserve forces, a defence minister - Alistair Carns - has said.

I’m glad we’re starting to get good coverage here. Twitter has a high volume of disinformation which makes it hard to follow. My guess is that the SAA agrees with HTS on the importance of Hama, given the recent loss of a Syrian GO in the fighting.

Another, more accurate way to put this is “Republicans to choose between Trump and the Constitution.” Spoiler: they’ll choose Trump.

“Hungary’s key lesson is you don’t protect democracy by talking about democracy — you protect democracy by protecting people. Only a democracy that works for the people is sustainable.”

BREAKING: It's official. Trump's sentencing in New York is canceled indefinitely.

This strikes me as wishful thinking.

strategery

1. So this is a good debate, though as Dan and I have both noted in different ways, the differences between us are smaller than the stylized positions would suggest. I think Dan is right in saying that Trump is committed to mercantilism and the notion that U.S. allies are free riders ...

Finally some good news.

I believe in institutions too, and I hereby recommend "Why Traditional Media Can’t Have Its Own Joe Rogan" in Columbia Journalism Review @columjournreview.bsky.social