jpw.nyc
Electrical engineering & neurotechnology
49 posts
69 followers
81 following
Regular Contributor
Active Commenter
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Car hit a kid? Better remove the road until drivers learn to follow the rules.
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Other universities (Ivy League step up) should sponsor their visas while allowing them to take classes at Harvard
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Big yikes
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Looking at the final round only tosses all the undecided voters and inflates the margin. More: bsky.app/profile/jpw....
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In summary, I think the Siena poll shows Cuomo leading, but 2:1 in the RCV simulation should NOT be treated as a head-to-head result. There's good reason to think we're trending towards a close race and not a blowout.
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How many "undecided" voters have actually already made up their mind about Cuomo? When Siena polled Cuomo favorability in March 2025, only 12% of all respondents said "don't know/no opinion". You have to imagine that if that poll were also limited to registered Dems, that number goes down further.
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My takeaway: Cuomo's support shows signs of slipping, albeit pretty slightly, and Eric Adams voters aren't just rolling over to Cuomo due to ideological closeness. Instead, they seem to be pretty evenly spilling into other candidates or "undecided".
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The last bit of good news in the Siena poll: In the first and only public poll since Eric Adams dropped out of the Dem primary, Cuomo has the lowest 1st round result since the Quinnipiac poll ending 3/3.
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Other candidates and the media can help with (1), so if I were Mamdani, I would focus almost exclusively on (2) via positive press, striking a moderate tone, and setting the narrative that Cuomo vs Mamdani is the inevitable final round
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For Mamdani, the challenge is two-fold: (1) he needs to drop Cuomo's support enough that he doesn't end up above 50% at any point, AND (2) he needs a lot of people to rank him (even 5th) on ballots that aren't currently ranking him in polls.
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Cuomo still leads comfortably, but Mamdani is in striking distance IF he can clean up amongst undecideds. That's a big IF, especially because he needs to actually be ranked by those who decided to NOT rank Cuomo. Lander etc ballots just won't matter in the final round (if this holds)
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Mamdani won't end up winning 100% of undecideds, of course, but it's not unreasonable to think he'll do pretty well given Cuomo's near-universal name recognition. If he ends up outranking Cuomo on 3/4 of those ballots, it's more like a single digit race.
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That's assuming that everyone ranks EITHER or BOTH Cuomo and Mamdani. To the extent that anyone leaves BOTH off, that would bump up the Undecided % at the expense of Cuomo and Mamdani's %.
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It helps that Harvard’s endowment is almost 4x larger than Columbia’s
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And assault weapons weren’t around when the 2A was adopted, so it’s hard to say about that one too, right?
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They even took it a step further youtu.be/CPnAnRsqia0?...
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Big if true
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Brad Lander and Zohran Mamdani for 1 & 2 in whichever order you prefer!
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Mensch
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Resign
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That’s not what happened, the Adult Survivors Act was first introduced in Oct 2019, that was before either of E. Jean Carroll’s lawsuits were filed.
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We spent about $45k per person to keep 200-some migrants in moldy tents in Cuba for 1 month before sending them either to Honduras or back to the US, possibly not even including the cost of flights.
Efficient!
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Please do not do this
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@jomboymedia.bsky.social
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Meeeeeeeeeeech
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“Sleeping” lmao
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That will just leave a bigger void to be filled by propaganda.
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This is corruption and you should call it that.
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Those poles look pretty flimsy to be holding back flood waters.
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Replies are horrible. We need to give people space to own up to mistakes, or our current hellhole of hyperpolarization and Trump cult deepens. We’d be a lot better off if more Trump voters were like her.
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hooray they posted the receipts! to no great surprise, they're full of comical errors!
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/u...
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This is like Boss Tweed levels of corruption to fire everyone and hire his own company
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still waiting
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Why are our leaders so consistently awful