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jtaylor179.bsky.social
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“.. he got crushed. Crawford won by 10 points in a state that has been decided by less than a single percentage point in each of the last three presidential campaigns. She even won Brown County itself, where Musk held his rally on Sunday night.” @politico.com www.politico.com/newsletters/...

the Dunkin’ logo has never felt more accurate

If you’re upset about the chaos and corruption Trump is inflicting on your country—whether your focus is the nihilistic dismantling of government, the economy, our foreign relations, or his threats to the rule of law—please join the nationwide marches on April 5. Learn more here 👉 handsoff2025.com

🇺🇲

Where in the cycle? 👇🏼

I found that place to start cutting government spending...

“Tesla has now plummeted more than 40% since its December 18th all-time high.” @barchart.com $TSLA

www.nytimes.com/2025/02/23/u...

I’d rather not put Spirit Airlines in charge of preventing the next 9/11.

The S&P 500 Price-to-Book Ratio has now surpassed the dot com bubble high. 👇🏼

Wait till they hear about the Department of Transportation

Blumenthal: "What world is he living in? It is not only contrary to the facts and the truth but utterly despicable. A disgusting betrayal of a country that has bled and fought and died for freedom ... the president's surrender is pathetic and weak."

$SPX vs S&P 500 Earnings Yield. 👇🏼 Nobody can say there weren’t signs.

'Research has consistently found that uncertainty makes businesses more reluctant to hire and invest, and leads to lower sales.' www.nytimes.com/2025/02/15/b...

This country has seen some bad moments in the 61 years, 5 months, 16 days I’ve been on this Earth. But it has never, ever before come close to the supertoxic level of stupidity, mendacity, narcissism, nihilism, and moral apathy that threaten to destroy it today.

Started / Going

As foxes with mouths full of feathers guard the henhouse from "waste, fraud, and abuse" - recall that it's actually the Trump administration that blocked oversight of trillions of pandemic subsidies. 1/ tinyurl.com/55pczedr 2/ tinyurl.com/39pcjxwj 3/ www.reuters.com/article/worl...

Cumulative change in Federal deficit as a % of GDP (declining figures indicate fiscal deterioration) We are somehow willing to sponge support from those who drink from thimbles, yet when profits or malinvestments of corporations and banks are threatened, we offer them buckets.

“.. a reckless gamble with America’s financial stability. The [CFPB] exists because of what happened in 2008, and stripping its power .. invites chaos, risk, and .. the conditions that fueled the last financial crisis.” - Nat’l Mortgage Professional nationalmortgageprofessional.com/news/0216202...

NEW POST: ‘A Sudden Shift In The Investment Landscape’ thefelderreport.com/2025/02/15/a...

Said every tyrant and dictator in human history to justify his actions.

He is spiraling out of control, acting with a dangerous sense of impunity, as if driven by a self-appointed divine mission. Urgent intervention is necessary.

Perfect. By @zezvaz.bsky.social

Connolly: "Imagine lecturing Europeans about being afraid of their own electorate when it's Trump and Musk who are firing FBI agents because they dared to do their duty, who are having loyalty tests at the NSC...you're gonna lecture others about political tolerance of free speech? That's a bit much"

'The collaboration centers on Perplexity’s new Sonar model, which runs on Cerebras’s specialized AI chips at 1,200 tokens per second — making it one of the fastest AI search systems available. This could pressure other AI cos. to reconsider their hardware strategies.' venturebeat.com/ai/cerebras-...

'The Atlanta Fed's sticky-price CPI—a weighted basket of items that change price relatively slowly—rose 4.9% (on an annualized basis) in January, following a 2.6% increase in December. On a year-over-year basis, the series is up 3.6%.' www.atlantafed.org/research/inf...

We continue to whistle past the graveyard of previous stock market cycles. 👇🏼

CPI comes in at 3%, est: 2.9%. Core CPI: 3.3%, est: 3.1%.

The gap between price and EPS estimates. 😳

"Tesla's financial performance and Bloomberg consensus for revenue, margin, earnings, and cash flow all keep coming down, but analyst price targets and the company’s share price keep going up." www.ft.com/content/9cc3...

LULA: “.. It's very simple: if he taxes Brazilian products, Brazil will reciprocate in taxing products that are exported from the United States.” @barrons.com www.barrons.com/articles/lul...

'The fund "has never seen a market like this", wrote Elliott, referring to the speculative investor frenzy it believes is currently gripping financial markets. The "inevitable collapse" of the crypto bubble "could wreak havoc in ways we cannot yet anticipate."' www.ft.com/content/5fe6...

'The weighted-average P/E of the Mag7 is 41x. That's a number that could come under increasing pressure if the moats of the big tech companies are not as deep as expected and they weaken their balance sheets via spending that does not yield a sufficient return.' blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

and upon these record profit margin expectations, investors have placed extreme price-to-forward operating earnings multiples - typically followed by negative 10-year S&P 500 total returns, with only a handful breaking even into the low single digits.

so if I'm understanding the tech-bro position correctly, it's this

When it takes two graphs to show economic inequality you’ve got a problem!

'US 10-year yields have climbed more than three-quarters of a percentage point since central bankers started slashing benchmark interest rates in September, the biggest jump in the first three months of a rate-cutting cycle since 1989.' www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

'US companies are defaulting on junk loans at the fastest rate in four years, as they struggle to refinance a wave of cheap borrowing that followed the Covid pandemic.' www.ft.com/content/e6ba...

"One of the great tragedies of mankind is that morality has been hijacked by religion. So now people assume that religion and morality have a necessary connection. But the basis of morality is really very simple and doesn't require religion at all." Arthur C. Clarke

(Bloomberg) -- Treasury 10-year yields may climb to 6% for the first time in more than two decades as US fiscal woes worsen and Donald Trump’s policies help keep inflation elevated, according to T. Rowe Price. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"The share of stocks with EV/sales ratios >10x has risen to 13%, near 2021 and Tech Bubble levels." www.dailychartbook.com/p/daily-char... via @dailychartbook.bsky.social

New eras, same bubbles: the forgotten lessons of history - the influential investor and thinker John Hussman argues US equity markets are now in the third great speculative bubble in history. And that the latest new era is only part of an endless cycle. www.ft.com/content/abec...

I don't trust the Post Office so I've been using drones to send out Christmas gifts. Hope it doesn't cause any issues.

'We are concerned about the recent slowdown in earnings, as it often brings about a fresh wave of layoffs.' themacroinstitute.beehiiv.com/p/macro-mond...

'One definition of a bubble is a good idea that has gone too far. Awe of “American exceptionalism” in markets has now gone too far. Talk of bubbles in tech or AI, or in investment strategies focused on growth and momentum, obscures the mother of all bubbles in US markets.' www.ft.com/content/49cc...

'Citi Panic/Euphoria. Literally off the chart!' helenemeisler.substack.com/p/saturday-c... via @hmeisler.bsky.social