lawrencemckay.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

Wrote a piece for the @uk.theconversation.com about our study just published in @bjpols.bsky.social: "If it’s something about the way politics is practised that citizens distrust, perhaps those politics need to change." Some more nuggets from our study below! 👇 theconversation.com/trust-in-pol...

submitted 4 days ago • 4 comments

Now in @the-independent.com, @dailymail.co.uk @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy and many more:

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

NEW: How many dependants do migrants actually bring with them? Farage and co have claimed that “most” migrants to Britain are dependants and are not productive members of the economy. This is demonstrably false. But what are the real numbers? 1/8 🔗 www.thetimes.com/article/48e9...

submitted 7 days ago • 9 comments

A good article but ignores the pivotal role of the electoral system in making the Social Democrats’ success - they can afford to lose liberal and progressive voters (and they have) because those voters return coalition friendly MPs under PR. The maths is much harder for Labour under FPP

submitted 10 days ago • 8 comments

This is master negotiating. He really has Putin on the ropes. One more unprompted unilateral concession and Putin will surely crack. www.reuters.com/world/trump-...

submitted 9 days ago • 64 comments

I'm biased but IMO this is a really important piece of research - proud to have been a part!

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

Our paper on global trends in trust is online! Led by @viktorv.bsky.social we use >3k surveys from ~50 projects in 143 countries, the paper provides a framework for understanding changes in trust and: (1) Trust in representative institutions is in decline (2) but stable in implementing institutions

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

This should be changed asap. If we give someone refugee status, it can't be right to then refuse them route to become a British Citizen. To say they can have a home in our country, but never a place in our society and be forever second class. freemovement.org.uk/good-charact...

submitted 12 days ago • 194 comments

My bit for tomorrow’s Observer on Farage’s rise, Tory existential crisis and the wobbling Labour Jenga tower www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

submitted 15 days ago • 33 comments

If you're an early career researcher - perhaps based in a fledgling authoritarian state - and want an out, @britishacademy.bsky.social offer 2-year fellowships to come to a UK university (including relocation costs and research funds). www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/inte...

submitted 15 days ago • 14 comments

The British Social Attitudes data shows that people should wait 10-15 years for citizenship is a niche position. With 75% going for up to 5 years and 16% going for 10 years for full political participation rights

submitted 16 days ago • 2 comments

If I told you that the Bank of England upgraded its growth forecasts yesterday, would you believe me? It did.... i HAvE nOt gOne CRazY - honest This is a hill I am prepared to die on - the BoE and others (all central banks, IMF, OECD etc etc) report their "forecasts" in a terrible way 🧵

submitted 16 days ago • 11 comments

State-of-the-parties news. @lawrencemckay.bsky.social and I have just run a survey courtesy of @deltapoll.bsky.social. It included 0-10 scales measuring feelings about Labour, the Tories and Reform....but they've been cunningly anonymised below! Can you tell which (un)popularity profile is which?

submitted 16 days ago • 5 comments

Really interesting: attitudes to Edinburgh (among Scots) and Cardiff (in Wales) have big partisan divides and are significantly more negative when living further away from those cities. 'Edinburgh'/'Cardiff' could be new boogeyman for Reform in Wales/Scotland - much as 'London' is in England

submitted 17 days ago • 2 comments

Beep boop. My program is being updated to include social grade, as well as new policy issues. Thank you @psurridge.bsky.social for the feedback. As well as @lawrencemckay.bsky.social and @cjterry.bsky.social for their help. To those who engage, thank you! It is deeply appreciated

submitted 18 days ago • 2 comments

I have a new article in @electoralstudies.bsky.social 🎉 It uses conjoint experiment in the UK to test how important the culture war (statues, LGBT+ representation in pop culture, DEI, transwomen athletes, curriculum diversity, and university free speech) is to voters Link👇 & results 🧵

submitted 20 days ago • 7 comments

🚨New paper forthcoming @apsrjournal.bsky.social!🚨 How do economic shocks shape politics? We study a plant disease epidemic in Italy🌱—finding it fueled far-right support It’s not just economic loss but how shocks uproot communities and interact with perceptions of state neglect shorturl.at/ntKyt

submitted 25 days ago • 4 comments

Attention PhD students and Early Career Researchers - Call for papers! With support from @ukandeu.bsky.social I will be hosting a workshop event for PhDs and ECRs on April 23rd, just after Easter. A chance to present in a supportive environment & meet new colleagues. Details attached

submitted 32 days ago • 1 comment

My new book HOW TO THINK ABOUT POLITICS: A GUIDE IN FIVE PARTS will be published by OUP next month in paperback and ebook. I argue that to understand politics, we must look past the daily fluctuations and instead focus on the fundamental constants of political life. Preview here — shorturl.at/mqLRt

submitted 33 days ago • 6 comments

Looking forward to six days of discourse in which the right argues it’s not a sieg heil because he didn’t do it correctly

submitted 34 days ago • 1 comment

This is a really big research gap - great work by Chris and co to address it! IMO it would be too easy to blame the politicians here - we need to do more to show them why trust matters

submitted 34 days ago • 1 comment

Ex-MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle cleared after Labour drops inquiry into surprise complaint that ended his Commons career, @alethaadu.bsky.social reports - www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...

submitted 38 days ago • 1 comment

Are you (or your Masters students) puzzled by why polling misses happen in elections worldwide? Curious to uncover when, why, and how to fix it? Interested? Then apply for a fully-funded PhD w/ me, @robfordmancs.bsky.social @martinboon.bsky.social @deltapoll.bsky.social to help solve this puzzle👇

submitted 38 days ago • 2 comments

So here's a curious thing, Jacob Rees-Mogg posted this teaser for his discussion on Rachel Reeves in China, with an image he attributed to Grek (I assume he meant Grok) & it has given her an exaggerated hook nose. I'd love to know how what it was in the wording or algorithm which accounts for that

submitted 40 days ago • 171 comments

A result like this would be highly chaotic - impossible to know with any confidence how it would translate into seats without knowing geography of each party’s vote, patterns of tactical voting etc

submitted 40 days ago • 14 comments

I put some words into House Magazine on the Farage-Musk split!

submitted 44 days ago • 0 comments

Worth drawing attention to the table in this piece - it is absolutely the case Labour faces a 2nd placed Reform in 89 seats but in most of those they are a long way behind Labour, and still behind Labour if you give them all the Conservative vote in those seats as well.

submitted 47 days ago • 1 comment

Make it into a Wetherspoons

submitted 53 days ago • 19 comments

Ok time to start making predictions. Great opener from my excellent colleague (and BGE 2024 co-author) Paula. I’m going to use BBC projected national shares as the yardstick for Reform performance. UKIP got 23% PNS when same areas were up in 2013, I think Reform will be this - so I’ll go 25%

submitted 58 days ago • 10 comments

Great to see our study of GE24 out in PQ (all credit to @jwfurlong.bsky.social for analysis and maps!) With Reform garnering more and more hype going into the New Year, our conclusion seems very relevant:

submitted 57 days ago • 0 comments

Great to see our study of GE24 out in PQ (all credit to @jwfurlong.bsky.social for analysis and maps!) With Reform garnering more and more hype going into the New Year, our conclusion seems very relevant:

submitted 57 days ago • 0 comments

No they won't www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

submitted 66 days ago • 5 comments

Quick take on today’s devo White Paper - comments and corrections positively welcome! labourlist.org

submitted 69 days ago • 2 comments

📣 NEW PAPER KLAXON 📣 "Who lacks voter identification? The electoral implications of the Elections Act 2022" With Ed Fieldhouse, @caprosser.bsky.social, @jack-bailey.co.uk, @jonmellon.bsky.social (@britishelectionstudy.com) Just published at Parliamentary Affairs: academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...

submitted 75 days ago • 8 comments

New analysis of census and election data: the marginals Labour must hold in 2024 are more 'Middle England' than 'Red Wall'. Do Labour have a strategy for this? I argue they are sending mixed signals at best:

submitted 75 days ago • 6 comments

New analysis of census and election data: the marginals Labour must hold in 2024 are more 'Middle England' than 'Red Wall'. Do Labour have a strategy for this? I argue they are sending mixed signals at best:

submitted 75 days ago • 6 comments

Friday's newspapers differ on which issues the country (and their readers) think matter most Living standards - i paper & PM Build/planning+growth - Times NHS - Mirror Immigration - Express

submitted 80 days ago • 2 comments