mikarantane.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

With this ongoing winter of very little snow, a highly relevant new paper has just been published by my colleagues Räisänen, Luomaranta and Jylhä: "Future Snow Scenarios for Northern Europe Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Data" rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/... 🧵

submitted 13 hours ago • 2 comments

New paper! Chris O'Reilly and I looked at recent trends in the wintertime North Pacific jet stream - Has climate change shifted the jet? - Can models capture these recent trends? - How has this affected North American weather? doi.org/10.1029/2024... 🧵

submitted 6 days ago • 1 comment

February 2025 might be the first month since May 2023 that is not the warmest or second warmest on record globally. It is currently on track to be the third warmest, with February 2016 pulling ahead (0.69°C vs. the estimated February 2025 anomaly of ~0.62°C).

submitted 1 day ago • 3 comments

Spring migration of the first migratory birds is expected to start this weekend as mild southwesterly flow takes over Finland. In southern Finland, temperatures will rise above 0°C for the foreseeable future. Is winter over?

submitted 4 days ago • 4 comments

Hey @ecmwf.int, any idea why your extended-range forecast for mean zonal wind at 10 hPa has not been updated since 12 Feb? Other extended-range forecast charts are ok. charts.ecmwf.int/products/ext...

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Potentially an interesting (and timely) PhD defence coming this Friday by Irene Erner: "Subseasonal Weather Predictions in Northern Hemisphere Winter” See her PhD thesis in Helda: helda.helsinki.fi/items/140b2f...

submitted 6 days ago • 0 comments

As of today, the Bay of Bothnia is fully ice-covered. This is about two weeks later than usual. Last year, the bay froze over on 3 January 2024, which was unusually early. The ongoing cold air outbreak has allowed the ice cover in the Baltic Sea grow with today's extent of 67 000 km².

submitted 9 days ago • 1 comment

It's been now almost 13 years since the last time it was -20°C or lower in Helsinki city centre in February. It doesn't look likely this February either, with temperatures barely dropping below -10°C during the next nights, before another warm-up starts.

submitted 10 days ago • 3 comments

"The results show that the anomalous SSTs in the North Atlantic during the summer of 2023 were caused by increased shortwave warming and reduced thermodynamic cooling." Carton et al. (2025): Remarkable 2023 North Atlantic Ocean Warming agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

submitted 10 days ago • 1 comment

CPC Arctic Oscillation index will drop close to -5 as strong blocking high develops over the Arctic Ocean and Greenland. This appears to be associated with cold air outbreaks in both North America and Northern Europe.

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

In Nature Climate Change, we show that a year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit. @natclimchange.bsky.social

submitted 14 days ago • 4 comments

Perhaps the coldest period of the winter is on its way to southern Finland. Air mass temperatures will drop by ~15 degrees from current levels over the next few days due to strong cold air advection from the north. The weekend looks freezing—relatively speaking!

submitted 13 days ago • 2 comments

January 2025 was the 18th month in a 19-month period in which the global-average temperature was more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial level. 🧵

submitted 13 days ago • 2 comments

The full stop of the increasing winter sea-ice extent in the Arctic has now lasted for two weeks... 🌊⚒️🧪🥼❄️

submitted 14 days ago • 5 comments

Great way to end the week with our spotlight paper coming out in @rmets.org Weather - nice to have a citable publication on Finland’s strongest storm! Laurila et al. (2025): Storm Lyly, the first storm with observed hurricane-force winds in Finland rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

submitted 17 days ago • 1 comment

Temperatures remain well above average across the #Arctic, though these anomalies will begin to wane over the next few days. This is also coinciding with record low sea ice conditions for this time of year. Sea ice data from: nsidc.org/data/seaice_.... Map from climatereanalyzer.org

submitted 17 days ago • 1 comment

Atmospheric pressure widely over 1050 hPa in S-Finland / the Baltics. In Helsinki Kaisaniemi, the pressure has already reached 1052.8 hPa, the highest in the capital in 13 years (1056 hPa in Jan 2012). So don't be surprised if the water starts to boil at 101°C!

submitted 17 days ago • 2 comments

A very exceptional warming event going on currently in the northernmost Lapland, in the heart of winter. Utsjoki Kevo reached 6.5°C, a new February heat record for the station. The previous record was 6.3°C in Feb 1976. Enontekiö Kilpisjärvi is also tying its February heat record with 6.4°C.

submitted 17 days ago • 6 comments

"Over the period 1979-2022, European surface air temperatures warmed around three times as fast as the global mean temperatures in both winter and summer." Dong & Sutton (2025): Drivers and mechanisms contributing to excess warming in Europe during recent decades www.nature.com/articles/s41...

submitted 18 days ago • 1 comment

Tammikuu oli maailmanlaajuisesti mittaushistorian lämpimin www.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/tiedote/2b47...

submitted 18 days ago • 0 comments

New ENSO plume from ECMWF seasonal update continues to show possibilities of a weak El Niño after summer 2025. Now about 50/50 chance for a 0.5°C anomaly in the Nino3.4 region in August 2025.

submitted 19 days ago • 2 comments

Global average January temperature - color coded by ENSO status. One of these years is not like the others.

submitted 19 days ago • 8 comments

“This was a very extreme winter warming event,” said Mika Rantanen, a scientist at the Finnish Meteorological Institute. “Probably not the most extreme ever observed, but still at the upper edge of what can happen in the Arctic.” #Arctic @mikarantane.bsky.social

submitted 20 days ago • 2 comments

Luonto-Suomen muuttuvat talvet menossa juuri nyt. Mukana tutkimusryhmämme päällikkö Anna Luomaranta. areena.yle.fi/radio/suorat...

submitted 20 days ago • 0 comments

Couple that with an already record low sea ice extent for this time of year!

submitted 20 days ago • 0 comments

That is a huge blocking predicted to form over NW Russia. Record-breaking in intensity (for the time of the year), with 500 hPa levels half a kilometre higher than normal. It's like a stone in a river that directs the warm, moist air flow from the North Atlantic towards the Arctic.

submitted 20 days ago • 5 comments