mikarantane.bsky.social
Researcher in Weather and Climate Change Impact Research in Finnish Meteorological Institute. PhD in meteorology.
557 posts
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One "mistake" we did in our 2022 paper was leaving the title as “The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979,” as if that would hold true every year going forward.
Due to 2023-2024 warming spike, the 43-year global trend increased 16% from 2021, which tends to lower AA.
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You mean in Helsinki? 1921 remains unbroken.
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Temperature anomaly for May 2024 to Apr 2025, based on @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social ERA5 reanalysis.
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Someone should come and plough the road to Tulppio...
www.kelikamerat.info/kelikamerat/...
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Pitkällisen etsinnän jälkeen taivaalta vihdoin löytyi tervapääsky! Lajimäärä nyt 86 ja siitä ei välttämättä enää nousta.
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It is not fully known, but it has been suggested that the warm Barents sea area played a role in the 1930s warmth in Fennoscandia. The spike is the higher the further north you go. In Lapland, the year 1938 is still the warmest year on record.
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As a result, the past 12 months in Finland have been the warmest on record.
The 12-month rolling average temperature reached 4.86 °C, surpassing the previous record of 4.71 °C from December 2019 to November 2020.
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Huge thanks to Samuli Helama (@luke.fi), who was the expert on the tree-ring data.
Thanks also to Jouni Räisänen (@helsinki.fi) for help with the attribution method, and to Hilppa Gregow
(@ilmatieteenlaitos.fi) for overall support of the study.
This was a nice multi-institute collaboration!
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I’m particularly happy about this study because the key finding was based on tree-ring reconstructions from Lapland, those of which have sometimes been interpreted as showing that recent warming isn’t exceptional.
Our results suggest otherwise.
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In summary, our results suggest that summer climate in northern Fennoscandia is emerging outside the range of natural variability seen over the Common Era.
This has already been documented for long-term warming (www.nature.com/articles/s41...) but we extended it to the level of a single summer.
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Of course, besides climate change, atmospheric circulation, i.e. the large-scale weather pattern, also favoured heat in Lapland.
The summer would likely have been warmer than average even without climate change, but without the observed global warming, a new record would not have been set.
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We also applied a climate change attribution method and found that human-induced climate change made this extreme season about 100 times more likely, and increased the temperature by an additional 2.1 °C.
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Last summer in Lapland was the warmest on record in instrumental observations, exceeding the previous record from 1937.
In addition to direct observations, we used two previously published tree-ring reconstructions, and found no evidence of warmer summers in the region over the past 2,000 years.
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Se on ihan perus integraali / summa päivittäisistä lumensyvyyshavainnoista. Eli 10 päivää 1cm lumensyvyyksiä tuottaa saman summan kuin 1 päivä 10 cm lunta.
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Yes!
Also, the study shows that these flips are projected to increase mostly in the low latitudes.
Mid-to-high latitudes show generally a decrease of the flip frequency, which does not really fit with the jet stream argument...
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A recent paper states almost the same (rather bodly), that jet stream is becoming wavier as if there was a consensus on the matter.
To be honest, I was a bit disappointed of this paper..
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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Oletko harkinnut kirjoittaa kuvien pohjalta tieteellistä artikkelia? Minusta niillä voisi olla ainesta ihan high-impact lehteen.
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Havaittu 365 päivän keskilämpötila, 8,81 astetta, on noin 2,92 astetta lämpimämpi kuin vuosien 1981-2010 keskiarvo.
Viimeksi kulunut vuosi on siis häivähdys tyypillisestä 2060-luvun ilmastosta.
Aiheesta lisää @suomenluonto.bsky.social-blogissa:
suomenluonto.fi/jos-asut-paa...
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365 päivän aikana 73 % päivistä on ollut tavanomaista lämpimämpiä.
Ja jos tarkastellaan *selvästi* keskimääräistä kylmempiä tai lämpimämpiä päiviä, epäsuhta on vieläkin suurempi: noin 125 / 7 lämpimien päivien hyväksi.
Ennätyslämpimiä päiviä oli jopa 33 eli lähes 10% koko vuoden päivistä! 📈
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Joo, olen myös seurannut että ennätys tuli 19.4. Pitää lähipäivinä tutkia enemmän.
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Yeah that's the overall tendency. But as humans we often pay attention only to the extremes and may not notify the "normal" rainfall. At least that's my own experience.
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In Finland instead, today was a relatively large forecast bust. Even yesterday they predicted 24 °C but the maximum today remained below 20 degrees.
In terms of airmass (T850 11.7°C), 24C could have been possible but low-level clouds were too persistent.
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Apparently 28.4 °C was the final maximum in Latvia.
ECMWF had quite a good hint of what was coming already a week ago.
bsky.app/profile/mika...
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I don't know. Maybe @meteolatvia.bsky.social knows?
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25 °C huomenna olisi noin 13 astetta korkeampi kuin tyypillinen huhtikuun 18. päivän ylin lämpötila Suomessa.
Heinäkuussa normaali maan ylin lämpötila on noin 25C eli puhuttaisiin noin 38 asteen helteestä. Tai ehkä vähän vähemmän, koska vaihtelu taitaa olla heinäkuussa pienempää.