The Warming Stripes have now been extended downwards into the ocean and upwards into the stratosphere! Collaborative paper which tells the story of how the stripes were developed, and discusses their extension across the Earth system, is now available in BAMS: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal... - ThreadSky

edhawkins.org • 8 days ago

The Warming Stripes have now been extended downwards into the ocean and upwards into the stratosphere!

Collaborative paper which tells the story of how the stripes were developed, and discusses their extension across the Earth system, is now available in BAMS: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-24-0212.1/BAMS-D-24-0212.1.xml

Comments

marker-maker.bsky.social•7 days ago

Like a frog in a pot.

amenis.bsky.social•7 days ago

that would be interesting to see EEI in front of this.
From my understanding, the more this stratospheric layer cools, the more it acts as an insulator

leifvisby.bsky.social•7 days ago

I got it. But how will you tell this to the people?
They wont understand your fancy graphs!

edhawkins.org•8 days ago

Many thanks to co-authors @pjyng.bsky.social, @ricliv.bsky.social, @elliehighwood.bsky.social, @weatherprof.bsky.social, @oceanterra.org et al.

edhawkins.org•8 days ago

The paper also features the 'warning stripes' which highlight that our choices about future emissions matter.

Hot years today will appear cool by the end of the century without rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-24-0212.1/BAMS-D-24-0212.1.xml

edhawkins.org•8 days ago

And, you can now build your own personalised warning stripes via this NASA tool, developed by @alexruane.bsky.social: https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/webapps/climate-legacies/

craightonicguild.bsky.social•12 hours ago

I’m under the impression that STEMfolk and some others outside of government are really the only ones willing to solve climate and environmental problems. Check out Guild - if you like. We can do it ourselves.

zacklabe.com•7 days ago

Cool!

jrslv.bsky.social•8 days ago

That's interesting. Why is the stratosphere cooling though? Is it that IR gets trapped in the troposphere and does not warm the upper layers as much?

michielvanweele.bsky.social•8 days ago

The stratosphere looks a bit weird in these completed stripes. Cooling followed by slow warming is expected in the lower stratosphere because of ozone depletion and recovery since ~2000. In higher stratosphere there is cooling by the local CO2 increase (more cooling to space).

michielvanweele.bsky.social•7 days ago

CO2 cooling and ozone changes contribute to the different behaviour in the stratosphere compared to the troposphere https://csl.noaa.gov/assessments/ozone/2022/downloads/Chapter5_2022OzoneAssessment.pdf

micefearboggis.bsky.social•7 days ago

This troubles me.

micefearboggis.bsky.social•7 days ago

The problem (from a certain point of view) with the stripes is that they always go from deep blue to dark red regardless of how much change there is. There's missing context - the numbers that colours correspond to. Adding multiple variables each with its own scale provides a misleading context.

edhawkins.org•7 days ago

I agree that the main problem (from a certain point of view) is the lack of quantification. My defence has always been that they effectively show a signal-to-noise metric and this highlights how the long-term trends compare to the inter-annual variability. For a broad audience this is very helpful.

edhawkins.org•7 days ago

In this example each region of the atmosphere/ocean is changing by a significant amount relative to the internal variations in that same region. I can appreciate why this might be considered misleading, but I still believe it is a helpful approach to the communication of the consistency of trends.

micefearboggis.bsky.social•7 days ago

Do you have a version with a consistent colours scale?

edhawkins.org•7 days ago

Not at the moment. From when I was testing this originally I think the deeper ocean just consisted of palest blues and palest reds. Hence the choice to change the scales. But I will revisit it and make a version with consistent colour scale.

d3v1ls7h3r4p157.bsky.social•7 days ago

💯
We have armies of scientists (and #Doomers 😅) pumping out content, graphs, deep dives & studies of our current #problématique we are (Status: #FUBAR), but most people simply can't grasp or even begin to understand these numbers without context.

And even with some form of context and #scale, …
1|2

d3v1ls7h3r4p157.bsky.social•7 days ago

…most individuals of the #hu-mans don't grasp the immense accelerating rate of change and #collapse ( #RoCC), stuck in some form of hopeium|copeium fueled delirious #nightmare of post modern metastatic industrial techno civilization, praying to their gods of growth and technology to save them. #WASF