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paulhodges1.bsky.social
Insights from the chemical industry as the best leading indicator for the global economy. Special focus on geopolitics, energy markets and demographics. New Normal Consulting, The pH Report
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This week's question: How do I get Trump out of my head? www.ft.com/content/1092...

BAEZ: “.. We're all here to be silly and have fun, and as long as we recognize the fact that our democracy is going up in flames … we're being run by a bunch of really incompetent billionaires." @usatoday.com @netflix.com www.usatoday.com/story/entert...

Not only is this crass, it is highly significant. Radosław Sikorski is perhaps the most Atlanticist major politician in Europe. And this is how he is now being publicly treated by US/Musk. They do not want us to be their friends, they do not want us to be their allies.

We are now back in a world where geopolitics, not economics, drives decision-making. It is a world of shifting alliances. And so defence spending is set to be a key growth area for the future as Cold War 2.0 begins. new-normal.com/geopolitics/...

For this week's DeBriefed, I took a look at the Super Grid expansion of the 1950/60s, and the similarities between objections to it and today's expansion, Thanks to @katrinanavickas.bsky.social for talking to me about what can be learnt from the communication campaign at the time

Polish PM Donald Tusk, speaking before his flight to London for the European Ukraine summit: “500 million Europeans are asking 300 million Americans to defend them against 140 million Russians. [...] Europe today lacks the belief that we are truly a global force.”

The Rules for doing business have to change. As NATO's leader, Mark Rutte, has warned, Europe needs to "Raise defense spending or start learning Russian" new-normal.com/economic-gro...

This makes one proud to be British again

Pitch perfect. 🇺🇦 🇬🇧 🇪🇺

quote of the day www.ft.com/content/4221...

Russian newspapers being very clear about the key financial motivation behind Trump’s moves on opening up to Russia

Few people have more experience in Chinese manufacturing than Jörg Wuttke, with over 30 years at BASF China, part of which time he was also president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China. Here he discusses the problem of excess manufacturing capacity in China. themarket.ch/meinung/joer...

subscriptions >>> shop.viz.co.uk/viz343bs

Commodity prices tend to go from boom to bust, and back again. So it would be no surprise at all if US natural gas markets now move back into another boom, and help to set off another round of inflation. new-normal.com/futures-trad...

This made the rounds earlier today and is quite good.

Muslims don’t recognize Jews as God's chosen people, Jews don’t recognize Jesus as the Messiah, Protestants don’t recognize the Pope as the leader of the Christian world, and Evangelicals don’t recognize each other at Hooters.

If Hooters had started a home delivery during the pandemic and called it, "Knockers," they wouldn't be bankrupt.

Living longer should be a great opportunity for all of us. Today's problem is that policymakers around the world have refused to accept that demographics are destiny. All of us now have to face the challenge of unwinding the mess they have made. new-normal.com/economic-gro...

CANADA'S FREELAND: US tariffs are an act of "economic self-mutilation -- by the United States." If America pursues "a punishing trade war with Canada and its other allies, all of us will have no choice but to seek other friends, wherever we can find them." www.nytimes.com/2025/02/13/o...

Purging dissent in the security services and giving loyalists power is something we *instantly* recognize in other contexts.

The smartphone market highlights how consumers are refocusing on 'value for money'. Sales are falling as people hold onto their phones for longer. And more people are now happy to buy a cheaper used, model. new-normal.com/consumer-dem...

Ultimately it matters not if your constitution is written or unwritten or codified or uncodified… …once those in power do not recognise political or legal rules higher than their own personal or partisan advantage it is constitutional ‘game over’. Constitutions need constitutionalism, most of all.

“Our peaceful trading partners are not our enemies; they are our allies. We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world” President Reagan, 1988 new-normal.com/economic-gro...

One of today’s Russian papers reports a “depressing trend” in the judicial system: “guilty verdicts where there is no proof a crime has been committed.” Another paper writes: “Trump talks to his ‘allies’ in the same way a Russian aristocrat talked to his serfs…” #ReadingRussia

Is it bad that Donald Trump stopped paying the guards who were locking up ISIS militants, guys

Really powerful read - an interview with a Holocaust survivor: ‘I saw normal people in Auschwitz and I saw sadists there who killed people’ But also tying in with rise of far right and casual Holocaust denial on internet www.irishtimes.com/life-style/p...

Deflation means the real value of debt increases. China's ageing and declining population therefore risks entering a debt trap. More and more money will be needed to refinance existing debt, accelerating the slowdown in the wider economy. new-normal.com/china/china-...

TIME: “.. nearly two-thirds of the executive actions Trump has issued so far mirror or partially mirror proposals” from Project 2025 — “the blueprint he once dismissed.” @time.com time.com/7209901/dona...

Donald Trump. An Apology. The new Private Eye is out now

Inside the warmth of the Capitol Rotunda, the billionaires, millionaires, oligarchs, and elites will stand by Trump’s side, while his cult is left out in the cold. Welcome to the future.

Time is not on Europe's side. Hopefully, this crisis will lead policymakers to take the urgent actions that are now essential. new-normal.com/economic-gro...

They’re making some changes at the White House.

The collapse of Asia's main currencies versus the US$ confirms that our world is increasingly dominated by Known Unknowns. We know what the key issues might be, but we can only guess at how they might turn out. new-normal.com/financial-ev...

Great point from @normornstein.bsky.social: Elon Musk has attached himself to Trump like Tony Curtis and Sidney Poitier handcuffed together in "The Defiant Ones." It's hard to see how the brewing conflicts here don't end up splitting MAGA. Our exchange on this: newrepublic.com/article/1899...

Increasing life expectancy is now the main source of global population growth, as fertility rates continue to collapse. This means the end of the highly profitable middle market of the past 40 years. Instead, consumer markets are polarising between Luxury and Value new-normal.com/economic-gro...

"Ukraine has halted Russian gas flows across its territory. But is this the end of the continent’s turbulent energy relationship with Russia?" @asabadus.bsky.social

Post by the New Orleans attacker’s former troop commander in 1-40 Cavalry, 4/25 Airborne, during the unit’s 2009-10 deployment to Paktia Province

A List of Predictions Made in 1925 About 2025 🧵

lol

Europe is expected to have its coldest winter since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the continent already dipping deeper than usual into gas storage as temperatures plummet. new-normal.com/economic-out...

Europe has been built through crisis since the end of World War 2. Today's economic and political crises require a similar focus on reinvention as the weekend's celebrations at Notre Dame remind us. new-normal.com/economic-gro...

My 6 year old niece looked at my driver’s license and was curious about what I’d done to receive an “F” in sex.

Europe has been built through crisis since the end of World War 2. Today's economic and political crises require a similar focus on reinvention. new-normal.com/economic-gro...