profazio.bsky.social
Part Time Analyst / Full Time Dad - Personal views on Libya, Maghreb, NorthAfrica and everything else - Bylines @ IISS + NDCF 🇬🇧 🇮🇹
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Lately the #UAE has been rumoured of having been actively involved in building an airstrip there, a facility that could serve its growing ambitions in the wider region.
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It is also likely to aggravate the legitimacy crisis of international organisations such as the International Criminal Court, of which #Trump's comeback may just be the symptom rather than the cause.
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Ties that might well serve Rome's flagship policy on #Africa known as Piano Mattei, but will likely come with risks attached.
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I will try to post regularly each week, starting today with a short blog about Prime Minister of #Italy Giorgia Meloni and her closeness to #Gulf leaders.
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#Horizons will have an independent mindset, away from the polarisation of current times, but also close to what matters the most to decision-makers and businesses alike. /2
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On the other hand, #Russia has very few options left. Having invested so much on Haftar, it is forced to go all in, at risk of burning bridges with GNU. The travel warning recently issued may just be the prelude growing tensions between #Moscow and #Tripoli./12 www.libyanexpress.com/libya-seeks-...
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The fall of the Syrian strongman will raise important questions about how reliable #Russia is when push come to shove, especially in a divided country like #Libya, where things can quickly change in a matter of time, melting down the frozen conflict. /11 carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...
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What's next? As #Russia is busy laying the groundwork for an expansion in #Libya following its #Syria demise, much will depend on how things play out between Haftar and Putin. Haftar might have been impressed by the fall of Assad, as pointed out here. /10 www.africaintelligence.com/north-africa...
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An uptick in activity has been recently recorded in al-Jufra, as well as at the Brak al-Shati and Ghardabiya airbases, where paramilitary forces from #Russia have carried out revamping and renovations, possibly in preparation for the relocation of military forces there. /9
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Right at the same time the Cham Wings Airline was transferring former officers of the Assad regime from #Syria to #Benina airport in #Benghazi. Reports indicated that, before their final transfer to #Russia, they would have made a stop at the al-Jufra airbase. /8 libyaobserver.ly/inbrief/seve...
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The likelihood of a relocation of Russian vessels from Tartus to Tobruk might be of high concern for Western capitals that have intensified surveillance in the #EastMed. In the last few days #US drones have been hovering around, particularly over #Tobruk. /7 www.itamilradar.com/2024/12/04/b...
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Negotiations with Gen. Khalifa Haftar, in control of eastern Libya, have been conducted by the Russian Deputy Defence Minister Yunus Bek-Yevkurov, who also oversaw the transformation of the #WagnerGroup into #AfricaCorps. His last visit to #Benghazi was last month. /6 libyareview.com/50729/haftar...
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At the same time, it is highly likely that #Russia will double down on #Libya just for the same reason. Talks have been going on for quite some time about a naval base in #Tobruk, which happens to be a deep-water port on which Moscow has set its sights. /5 www.defensenews.com/global/midea...
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Such a scenario could be disruptive for #Russia's network of influence in #Africa, of which Tartus and Hmeimim were the main conduits to funnel military equipment and fighters to #AfricaCorps. Often via #Libya, a hub for Kremlin's activities in Africa. /4 www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
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Frantic negotiations about the future status of the military bases have been taking place between #Moscow (where Assad has reportedly fled after having been toppled) and the new leadership in Damascus, which might very well be inclined to force #Russia out. /3
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Satellite images analysed by @nytimes.com show that since rebels took control of #Damascus naval activity had ceased in Tartus and all ships and submarines had sailed. Some vessels, including a Gorshkov-class frigate were spotted 13km off Tartus a few days later. /2 www.nytimes.com/2024/12/11/w...
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As for the road projects in #Libya and its ambitions to become 'the' energy hub for the #EU, chronic instability, high volatility and political fragmentation will represent main obstacles. Keep in mind that the area in which the Benghazi-Kufra-Sudan road will be built escapes the GNU's control. /5
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Same rationale underpins the Atlantic Initiative launched by King Mohammed VI late last year. If we also consider different pipeline projects to tap into gas reserves in #Nigeria from #Algeria, #Morocco and #Libya, intra- #Maghreb competition seems likely to intensify in short to medium term. /4