quincel.bsky.social
Betting on politics since 2010, trying to separate what I want to happen from what I think will happen.
969 posts
247 followers
235 following
Getting Started
Active Commenter
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He's an Arsenal fan. Just like Jeremy Corbyn...
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Well the polls weren't even close!
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Still, I'd take evens on Cuomo. Can't really not when he has a lead in almost every poll.
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Lincoln was a 6'4'' wrestler, so he's got to be in the conversation.
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Write a Matt Goodwin-esque article about it.
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I'd be fine with this. Shorts feel like a totally different set of content than main YouTube, it's like you posting it on YouTube and Instagram simultaneously.
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Some of his Congressional supporters might be pissed off, and some of his base supported him due to his 'anti forever-wars' stance. But is it high salience for the voter base? I doubt it.
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The Art of the Deal
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Misread the image for a moment and thought it said 'MRS THATCHER WAS BEHIND THE 1979 ELECTION CAMPAIGN' and I thought 'Huge if true'.
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This is excellent, but it's also mad how easy it would have been to edit Genius Game UK better with exactly the same footage.
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More shocking London-centric thinking. He should be seeking to devolve the Military Guard Unit to every region.
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Good question, but I can think of a few plausible answers I don't like.
- Fewer protests in future
- A pretext to remove certain rights
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Then your wall is the place it should be!
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It's making me feel things, and I have no idea what. A definite sense of unease.
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Unlike our comments, which aren't pedantic at all?
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I think Anand's point is that 'covers you to watch' implies that you can watch the channels once you have a TV licence, rather than needing other consents also. He's not saying it is technically wrong, he's saying it is misleading. And I think he's got a point.
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Because it doesn't let you watch Sky, TNT, etc.
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That's fair, but I think a society where population has grown significantly over 2-4 generations is a lot easier economically (dependancy ratios etc) than one where it has halved in that time.
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Surely exponential decay means if everywhere ends up where the developed world is now (and it's still falling somewhat) then in not that many generations we will be much less than 8 billion people and it would take a big increase in fertility rates to reverse such a trend? That's kinda scary to me.
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Indeed, did the Zelensky Oval Office meeting actually impact policy? Was Trump going to act differently on Ukraine before that meeting? I'm not convinced.
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Complaint: He didn't kiss me even though I gave him 'The Look'.
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Friend made this for after lunch a couple of weeks ago and it was stunningly good.
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Wait, were there foreign language voice actors too?
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I know it's an old joke, but it would be perfect if someone bought it and renamed it Edison.
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The key is negotiating a long notice period so you get a bigger payout when they very publicly scrap your role.
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The irony of the debt ceiling is it only works as leverage to try and constrain debt if there is a risk it might not be raised and thus cause a default, but every other day of the year you want to deny there is any risk it would allow a default.
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There can be no diagram which gives all parts of the picture prominence. That doesn't mean a diagram which gives one part of the picture is wrong or misleading. It is showing part of the picture accurately, and should be interpreted with understanding that it is only doing that.
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But if the diagram, which shows the aggregate movement, suggested it was the main movement then it would be misleading for all the seats where it is less common. Aggregate numbers conceal variations across different seats, that's true but it doesn't make the aggregate numbers wrong.
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Madness!
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Wonder how she handles a smartphone.
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Yes, a lot of retrospective judgment after the gamble failed on this. Also failing to acknowledge there were no good options at the time. If you don't force an election just before the deal passes you'd only face one immediately after.
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I do worry junior partners in coalitions struggle to convince the public they deserve the credit for government actions. I might just need broader horizons, but are there cases of junior partners doing well after entering coalition? Even in countries where coalition is common it seems rare.
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I know I'd never even heard of it, so thanks for sharing!
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Is this for a single event or for all such events combined over the year?
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People hate Lime Bike now but they'll love the gold medals we win in Brisbane 2032.
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Good thing too. We can't have another party polling 20%.
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'Get Brexit Done' was more about Done than Brexit.
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Why France and Italy both make delicious but very different food despite a very similar climate. Macaron/Eclair country vs Gelato/Tiramisu country.
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Depends how much pressure the party imposes, or can impose, on him to quit earlier. Or if he pleads guilty for a reduced sentence, though I agree people tend not to on these kinds of charges.
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Labour might be able to activate a fair bit of anti-Farage tactical voting in a general election, but in a by-election those voters know the result won't change the maths in the HoCs so have lots of reasons to send a message and few to hold their noses.
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There are probably comfortably more Ref/Con voters than Lab/Grn/LD in the seat on current polling, especially in a by-election scenario. And given the respectable Reform performance in 2024 and the context if a by-election does happen it's not a hard tactical call for those voters.
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There is a risk he is too odd and becomes known as a result, but strong base case is what you say.
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I don't mean this to sound pointed, but is this so unique to Ozympic-type drugs? How do you see it as different to, for example, anti-depressants?