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quincel.bsky.social
Betting on politics since 2010, trying to separate what I want to happen from what I think will happen.
972 posts 247 followers 236 following
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Posts 5 Comments 45

The NY Dem Primary is now tied on Polymarket. Mamdani did lead in one, but loses by 5-10% in a bunch of others. I think tied is generous to him, but primary polling definitely is difficult and possible the enthusiasm for Mamdani in his voters pushes him over the top.

submitted 2 days ago • 1 comment

Gah I knew I should have taken profit when they moved to 1/5! Market swung so far without much polling or other solid evidence. But I just assumed that mean my bet would win, even though I'd assumed before that the market was wrong (hence, y'know, placing the bet).

submitted 20 days ago • 1 comment

Starsports offering 8/15 on Trump serving a full 2nd term seems pretty generous, and worth a bet even given the long wait.

submitted 28 days ago • 0 comments

Ladbrokes have the Special 'Nigel Farage to NOT become Leader of the Conservative Party'. Does this pay out when he dies? I presume it pays out on Jan 1 2026, because they also have a Special on him becoming Tory leader this year. But could maybe use clarifying.

submitted 28 days ago • 0 comments

Rather mad the odds on Starmer leaving office this year are down to 9/2 bet price. I'd very happily take 1/5 on him staying.

submitted 29 days ago • 0 comments